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2004 Governor

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Recount Blues in the Evergreen State?

As you know, we hate to boast, but the Crystal Ball was, to our knowledge, the only established, national political source to predict that Republican Dino Rossi would defeat Democrat Christine Gregoire in the Washington State governor’s race. (If we ar e wrong, let us know and we will correct this.) As all of our political aficionados know by now, Washington Secretary of State Sam Reed has just certified Rossi as the Governor-Elect, by a grand total of 42 votes out of 2.8 mi llion cast. Of course, it is not over until it is over, and the Democrats may ask for yet another recount by Friday, though that is a potentially costly route for them. It may well be that this unbelievably close result can be reversed in suc h a recount, which would eventually go statewide, should the first selective recount actually reverse the outcome. Be that as it may, we thought that our fellow political junkies might like to know that this is the closest gubernatorial contest in modern times–but is not the record: The tightest governor’s race in American history occurred in 1839 when Marcus Morton (D-MA) was elected by a single vote in the official

Larry J. Sabato

Four Statehouses Switch Parties

In eleven gubernatorial races spread out from coast to coast, the Crystal Ball accurately forecast at least nine, with the match up between Democratic State Attorney General Christine Gregoire and Republican State Senator Dino Rossi still too close to call and possibly headed for a recount. So far the lone surprise has been the race for New Hampshire governor, where Democratic challenger John Lynch ganged up on the unpopular incumbent, Republican Craig Benson. Like its green mountain neighbor, voters in the Granite State typically give their governors a second two year term, even if they aren’t performing up to expectations, but this year’s result proved this tradition is not set in stone. Three other states (so far) have seen a change in the party controlling the statehouse. Indiana saw Republican Mitch Daniels unseat incumbent Democrat Joe Kernan, who had assumed the governorship after the death of Frank O’Bannon in 2003. Missouri also witnessed a Republican taking a formerly Democratic seat when Matt Blount defeated Claire McCaskill. On the flip side, Democrats added another governor to their ranks in Montana, with Brian Schweitzer’s win over Bob Brown in this open seat contest. Democrats could add one more if Gregoire’s slight lead

Matt Smyth

The Brutal Bottom Line

President It’s all about Bush, the incumbent, especially after John Kerry’s success in the first presidential debate in shifting the focus back to the performance of the Bush administration. The people will vote “thumbs up/thumbs down” based on Bush’s handling of the twin challenges of a shaky economy and a continuing war in Iraq. Just as with his father’s presidency, “Dubya” has faced a difficult election year. Off and on, Bush has some good news to trumpet on the economy: hundreds of thousands of new jobs have been created in the past year, and most other basic economic indicators appear to be turning upwards. However, Bush’s achievements on the economy are not clear cut, and more importantly they have been overshadowed for much of the year by the somewhat unpopular Iraq war and its aftermath. The abuse of Iraqi prisoners shook the administration to its foundation, and the 9/11 Commission was a coup for the Democrats–with most of the riveting testimony and the final report used to undermine Bush’s claims to successful leadership in the war on terror. On the other hand, the handover of authority from Americans to Iraqis on June 28 appeared to have quieted the situation somewhat–though

Larry J. Sabato