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2005 Governor

Sabato's Crystal Ball

The 2005 Off-Off-Year Elections

Has anyone noticed that neither of the two states electing Governors on November 8th is getting the Chief Executive the people want? In New Jersey, interim Governor Dick Codey (D), the State Senate President who succeeded the resigned Governor Jim McGreevey (D) in 2004, would win in a walk if he were on the ballot as the Democratic nominee. Codey has been a smash hit, but the party bosses in the corruption-plagued Garden State insisted on Jon Corzine (D), an undistinguished one-term U.S. Senator, noted not for his governing abilities but his enormous Wall Street wealth. In Virginia, another wealthy businessman, Governor Mark Warner (D), is enjoying approval ratings in the 70s and would be reelected in a landslide were it not for the Old Dominion’s one-of-a-kind, one-term-and-out rule. So instead we have a couple of open-seat contests without overwhelming favorites. And waiting on the sidelines are hundreds of journalists and analysts eager to read far too much into the outcomes of these off-off-year elections. New Jersey Devils? In New Jersey Democrat Corzine is facing the GOP’s Doug Forrester, who would have been elected to a U.S. Senate seat in 2002 had the Democrats not dumped their scandal-ridden incumbent, Bob

Larry J. Sabato

And They’re Off!

As we have long contended, the open-seat Virginia Governor’s contest has all the makings of a close and competitive election (READ MORE). The June 14th party primaries reinforced that view. Here are the key results for the statewide offices, with 99 percent of precincts reporting: Republican Party – Governor Candidate Vote total Percentage Jerry Kilgore 144,064 82.6 George Fitch 30,314 17.4 Democratic Party – Governor Tim Kaine was unopposed for the Democratic nomination and did not appear on the primary ballot. Republican Party – Lt. Governor Candidate Vote total Percentage Bill Bolling 98,381 57.8 Sean Connaughton 71,746 42.2 Democratic Party – Lt. Governor Candidate Vote total Percentage Leslie Byrne 37,797 32.9 Viola Baskerville 29,653 25.8 Chap Petersen 24,886 21.7 Phil Puckett 22,403 19.5 Republican Party – Attorney General Candidate Vote total Percentage Bob McDonnell 109,481 65.4 Steve Baril 57,871 34.6 Democratic Party – Attorney General Creigh Deeds was unopposed for the Democratic nomination and did not appear on the primary ballot. Before putting these results in perspective, let’s emphasize the obvious. These match-ups did not exactly capture the public’s imagination. The turnout was a dreadfully low 6.6 percent of registered voters–and this is with both parties counted together. It doesn’t

Larry J. Sabato