2006 Governor

A Glance Inside the Governor Crystal Ball Republican Held Seats up for Election in 2006: 22 (out of 28 held) Solid R (6) Likely R (5) Leans R (4) Toss-up (2) Leans D (3) Likely D (1) Solid D (1) CT (Rell) AL (Riley) AK (OPEN) MD (Ehrlich) AR (OPEN) OH (OPEN) NY (OPEN) HI (Lingle) CA (Schwarzenegger) ID (OPEN) MN (Pawlenty) CO (OPEN) NE (Heineman) FL (OPEN) NV (OPEN) MA (OPEN) SD (Rounds) GA (Perdue) RI (Carcieri) VT (Douglas) SC (Sanford) TX (Perry) WY (Freudenthal) TN (Bredesen) WI (Doyle) NM (Richardson) OR (Kulongoski) MI (Granholm) NH (Lynch) ME (Baldacci) PA (Rendell) OK (Henry) IA (OPEN) IL (Blagojevich) KS (Sebelius) AZ (Napolitano) Solid R (0) Likely R (0) Leans R (0) Toss-up (2) Leans D (4) Likely D (2) Solid D (6) Democratic Held Seats up for Election: 14 (out of 22 held) The Brutal B – October 26, 2006: +4 to +6 D

A Glance Inside the Governor Crystal Ball Republican Held Seats up for Election in 2006: 22 (out of 28 held) Solid R (6) Likely R (6) Leans R (3) Toss-up (2) Leans D (3) Likely D (1) Solid D (1) CT (Rell) AL (Riley) AK (OPEN) MD (Ehrlich) AR (OPEN) OH (OPEN) NY (OPEN) HI (Lingle) CA (Schwarzenegger) NV (OPEN) MN (Pawlenty) CO (OPEN) NE (Heineman) FL (OPEN) RI (Carcieri) MA (OPEN) SD (Rounds) GA (Perdue) VT (Douglas) ID (OPEN) TX (Perry) SC (Sanford) WY (Freudenthal) TN (Bredesen) NM (Richardson) OR (Kulongoski) WI (Doyle) NH (Lynch) MI (Granholm) ME (Baldacci) PA (Rendell) OK (Henry) IA (OPEN) IL (Blagojevich) KS (Sebelius) AZ (Napolitano) Solid R (0) Likely R (0) Leans R (0) Toss-up (3) Leans D (3) Likely D (2) Solid D (6) Democratic Held Seats up for Election: 14 (out of 22 held) The Brutal B, October 2006: +4 to +6 D

A Glance Inside the Governor Crystal Ball Republican Held Seats up for Election in 2006: 22 (out of 28 held) Solid R (5) Likely R (5) Leans R (6) Toss-up (2) Leans D (2) Likely D (1) Solid D (1) CT (Rell) AL (Riley) AK (OPEN) MA (OPEN) CO (OPEN) OH (OPEN) NY (OPEN) ID (OPEN) GA (Perdue) CA (Schwarzenegger) MD (Ehrlich) AR (OPEN) NE (Heineman) HI (Lingle) FL (OPEN) SD (Rounds) SC (Sanford) MN (Pawlenty) TX (Perry) VT (Douglas) NV (OPEN) RI (Carcieri) WI (Doyle) WY (Freudenthal) PA (Rendell) TN (Bredesen) OR (Kulongoski) NM (Richardson) MI (Granholm) ME (Baldacci) OK (Henry) NH (Lynch) IA (OPEN) IL (Blagojevich) KS (Sebelius) AZ (Napolitano) Solid R (0) Likely R (0) Leans R (0) Toss-up (2) Leans D (5) Likely D (2) Solid D (5) Democratic Held Seats up for Election: 14 (out of 22 held) The Brutal B, September 2006: +4 to +6 D

The Democrats may or may not score real breakthroughs in the houses of Congress in 2006 (see the Crystal Ball Email Archive on the 2006 House and Senate races), bu t it’s undeniable that they have opportunities galore in the Governorships this year. Opportunity is not reality, though, and on prior occasions the Democrats have fumbled away some key contests, as Shakespeare once penned, “in the twinkling of an eye.” Y et at the starting gate, Democrats appear headed for control of a narrow majority of the statehouses, and it will be a setback for their 2008 presidential plans if they don’t get there. Let’s recap where we are at present. The Republicans hold 28 governorships, and the Democrats 22. Of the 36 governorships up in 2006, the GOP possesses 22 and the Democrats just 14, giving the GOP far more territory to defend. Furthermore, eight Republican governors are not running again, either voluntarily or because of term limits, while only one Democrat (Tom Vilsack of Iowa) is stepping down. As is always the case, much of the party change in stateh ouses comes in the open seat races with no incumbent. These numbers alone set up the scenario for

Take a look at the table below, which illustrates changes in party control of Governorships from FDR to George W. Bush over a span of six decades (1942-2004). What do you see? As usual, it all depends on what you are looking for. Most election years, especially in the last couple of decades, have produced remarkably little change in the overall balance of Democrats and Republicans. Nine of the eleven elections since 1984 have yielded a shift of three or fewer governorships from one party column to the other. In earlier decades, when presidential coattails and partisan identification were stronger in the electorate, Governors were tossed in or out of office along with the party tides. In the twenty-one elections from 1942-1982, almost half of them (ten total) recorded a shift of at least five, and up to eleven, Governorships per year. All in all, a dozen elections have been memorable for gubernatorial contests since 1942: 1948, 1950, 1952, 1954, 1958, 1966, 1970, 1974, 1978, 1982, 1986, and 1994. The Democrats triumphed in exactly half of the twelve, and the Republicans in the other half. (Political life can be fair, over time.) All the gains and losses make sense, too.

Partisan redistricting almost everywhere keeps the House of Representatives from demonstrating much of a political trend, unless the winds of change are hurricane-force. Senate contests are frequently idiosyncratic, distorted by the intense effects of incumbency and the massive spending of the wealthy. Moreover, only a third of the states feature Senate match-ups in any given election year, so the national trends are often muted. That leaves the Governorships, very special offices where the governmental rubber hits the road. If the political terrain favors the Democrats in 2006–if there’s at least a mild “Sixth Year Itch”–the Governorships are likely to prove to be the most fertile territory for the Democrats. Incumbency appears to matter less in the chief executive category, and voters will more often change parties in their statehouses–if only to signal that “it’s time for a change.” It is still ridiculously early, so we refuse to do more than “lean” any governorship to one party or the other, even when we think it is clear one side will win. Still, take a look at our review of the 38 Governor contests in 2005 and 2006. Democrats have a fair to good shot at taking over statehouses in Alaska, Alabama,