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2008 Governor

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Virginia Gubernatorial Rematch

Barack Obama owes his presidency in part to his campaign’s mastery of the internet. A corps of online Obama enthusiasts helped him identify and mobilize previously-hidden groups of voters–particularly those under 30–and build an historic fundraising apparatus. In much of the country, Republicans were left with a clear majority only among older and rural voters, those least likely to have broadband service. The Obama apparatus worked to near perfection in Virginia, where the tech boom of the 1990s brought thousands of new, internet-savvy voters to the suburbs south and west of Washington and helped complete a shift of the state’s political center of gravity to that region from Richmond. Many of the newcomers work for the federal government or for private employers who do business with it; they tend to be more politically engaged and more inclined than voters downstate to view government at all levels as a force–at least potentially–for good. Democratic bloggers from the region were influential in Gov. Tim Kaine’s 2005 election and Jim Webb’s 2006 Senate victory. Their work last year for Obama helped him become the first Democratic presidential candidate since Lyndon Johnson in 1964 to secure Virginia’s electoral votes. Along with Obama, Virginians chose

Dale Eisman

CORRUPTION MOST FOUL

After reading the federal criminal complaint filed against the Illinois governor this past Tuesday we at The Crystal Ball could think only one thing: Willie Stark, meet Rod Blagojevich. Of course the governor is innocent until proven guilty, but the indictment is thick, well sourced, and very, very specific. Of Illinois’ immediate past eight governors, Blagojevich would be the fourth sent to prison. That is a stunning statistic, and it reminds us of how bad a culture of corruption is once it takes hold. States such as Oregon and Virginia have developed governmental cultures that are clean–voters and the political class alike reject corruption as antithetical to what they are. Citizens and politicians in other states, e.g. New Jersey and Illinois, seem to accept a certain amount of corruption as the cost of doing business. That is corrosive, and eventually leads to such a toxic environment that it is plausible a governor could attempt to sell a seat in the U.S. Senate, seek to have a journalist fired using threats that equal little more than petty extortion, and engaged in such simple and obvious graft that the entire nation stands in a stunned gaze. Who is to blame for acts

UVA Center for Politics

THE CRYSTAL BALL SCORES NEAR PERFECT RECORD FOR ACCURACY IN PREDICTING 2008 ELECTION OUTCOMES

The Crystal Ball is proud to announce that, with only a handful of official election outcomes still pending, we recorded a nearly perfect record of accuracy in predicting the results of the 2008 Election, including the correct October prediction of the final Electoral College total of 364 Obama, 174 McCain. The 2008 predictions of the Crystal Ball also matched, exactly, the results of all gubernatorial contests and correctly predicted the outcomes of every senatorial race among all Senate contests which have been officially called by two or more major networks at the time of publication. In the 435 races for the House of Representatives, the Crystal Ball has achieved an accuracy rate of at least 98 percent, pending recounts. The Crystal Ball predicted a maximum pickup for the Democratic Party of 26 seats. Results as of time of publication appear headed toward an actual pickup for the Democrats of between 20 and 23 seats in the House. ELECTORAL COLLEGE CB Projection: 364 Obama, 174 McCain. Actual Result: 364 Obama, 174 McCain. SENATE RESULTS CB Projection: +7 to +8 Democrat. Actual Result: +5 to +7 Democrat, pending recounts and runoff. GOVERNOR RESULTS CB Projection: +1 Democrat and -1 Republican. Actual Result:

Larry J. Sabato

THE LAST LAST WORD

ELECTORAL COLLEGE UPDATE: If Barack Obama wins the popular vote by 7 or 8 percentage points, then he will also carry at least a couple of the following states: Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, Montana, North Dakota. If Barack Obama should end up by 3 or 4 percent of the popular vote, then it is possible that John McCain will carry a couple of the following states: Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio. The Crystal Ball expects Barack Obama to run closer to the maximum than to the minimum in the popular vote tally. SENATE UPDATE: CURRENTLY HELD BY DEMOCRATS State Incumbent Projected Result Arkansas Sen. Mark Pryor Democratic Delaware Sen. Joe Biden Democratic Illinois Sen. Dick Durbin Democratic Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin Democratic Louisiana Sen. Mary Landrieu Democratic Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry Democratic Michigan Sen. Carl Levin Democratic Montana Sen. Max Baucus Democratic New Jersey Sen. Frank Lautenberg Democratic Rhode Island Sen. Jack Reed Democratic South Dakota Sen. Tim Johnson Democratic West Virginia Sen. Jay Rockefeller Democratic CURRENTLY HELD BY REPUBLICANS State Incumbent Projected Result Alabama Sen. Jeff Sessions Republican Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens Democratic Colorado OPEN (Sen. Wayne Allard retiring)Mark Udall (D) vs. Bob Schaffer (R) Democratic Georgia Sen. Saxby Chambliss

Larry J. Sabato

THE LAST WORD–ALMOST

These are our 2008 election projections as of Thursday, October 30. We will make final adjustments and tweaks on Monday afternoon, November 3, and post them to the website. At that point, we will attempt to call the few remaining toss-ups. We wish everyone the best possible Election Day, with congratulations to the winners and condolences to the losers. Our sincere thanks to the thousands of readers who have offered tips, suggestions, and constructive criticism. In January 2009 we’ll start our focus on the new administration and Congress–and yes, the critical “Census/redistricting” midterm election cycle of 2010 (36 governors, thousands of state legislative seats, the entire U.S. House again, and the next third of the U.S. Senate seats on the ballot). The never-ending cycle of American politics will be played out here on Sabato’s Crystal Ball. ELECTORAL COLLEGE UPDATE: These states are close, and we will revisit them on Monday: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, and Virginia. SENATE UPDATE: CURRENTLY HELD BY DEMOCRATS State Incumbent Projected Result Arkansas Sen. Mark Pryor Democratic Delaware Sen. Joe Biden Democratic Illinois Sen. Dick Durbin Democratic Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin Democratic Louisiana Sen. Mary Landrieu Democratic Massachusetts

Larry J. Sabato

STATEHOUSE ’08 UPDATE

There are just eleven governorships up for grabs from coast to coast, six currently held the Democrats and five by the Republicans: State Incumbent Last Election Percentage Candidacy Status Dem. Nominee GOP Nominee Delaware Ruth Minner 51 Term limited Jack Markell Bill Lee Indiana Mitch Daniels 53 Running Jill Long Thompson Mitch Daniels Missouri Matt Blunt 51 Not running Jay Nixon Kenny Hulshof Montana Brian Schweitzer 50 Running Brian Schweitzer Roy Brown New Hampshire John Lynch 74 Running John Lynch Joe Kenney North Carolina Mike Easley 56 Term limited Beverly Perdue Pat McCrory North Dakota John Hoeven 71 Running Tim Mathern John Hoeven Utah Jon Huntsman, Jr. 58 Running Bob Springmeyer Jon Huntsman, Jr. Vermont Jim Douglas 56 Running Gaye Symington Jim Douglas Washington Christine Gregoire 49 Running Christine Gregoire Dino Rossi West Virginia Joe Manchin, III 64 Running Joe Manchin, III Russ Weeks It is easy to forget about these eleven contests since: The non-presidential years host the lion’s share of statehouse elections (36 states in 2010, plus Virginia and New Jersey in 2009 and Kentucky, Mississippi, and Louisiana in 2011). Not a single mega-state has an election for Governor on tap in 2008. Without exception, the major-party candidates

Larry J. Sabato

THE OTHER “HOUSE” ELECTIONS: STATEHOUSES ’08

Leave the presidential contest aside for the moment. At other levels of politics, the Republicans may eventually file the 2008 campaign under the Double Jeopardy category of “It Just Keeps Getting Worse”. Surely, GOP House strategists are asking themselves whether they are cursed this year. Just take a look at New York’s 13th district, which has been a Republican stronghold on Staten Island. GOP Congressman Vito Fossella was breezing to his sixth full term until the wee hours of May 1st, when Fossella was arrested for drunk driving. The House member claimed he was rushing to see his sick child–a child that turned out to be a daughter fathered with his mistress. The career of yet another “family values” Republican quickly unraveled and Fossella announced he would not seek reelection on May 20th. The GOP still had a good chance to hold the seat, and coalesced around a wealthy, retired Wall Street executive named Frank Powers. Poor Mr. Powers, only 67, dropped dead of a heart attack on June 22. Now the various GOP powers-that-be in the unlucky 13th are having trouble finding a worthy successor. The probable choice, former state Assemblyman and “hot dog restaurateur” Robert Straniere (R) couldn’t

Larry J. Sabato

STATEHOUSE SIZZLE

Governors do while Senators talk–and we’re not just referring to Joe Biden. The talking takes place in Washington, the most over-covered capital city in the world. The doing occurs in the fifty states, scattered across a continental country and often ignored by the D.C.-centric national press. That’s one reason why the Crystal Ball has always placed a special emphasis on gubernatorial elections. Even though the statehouse contests rarely get as much attention as the battle for the upper house of Congress, they ought to be studied more closely. The issues that arise in state executive elections frequently produce policy changes in the “laboratories of democracy” that are later copied by the federal government. Moreover, in an off-year such as 2007, the statehouses can serve as a canary in the mine for politics to come. For example, in 1993 Republican gubernatorial victories in the two states up that year, New Jersey and Virginia, presaged the GOP landslide of 1994, and in 2005 Democratic triumphs in the same states hinted at the Democratic wave of 2006. Lively contests are already guaranteed in two of the three states electing Governors in 2007, Kentucky and Louisiana. Only Mississippi will have a preordained result, with

Larry J. Sabato