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2008 Senate

Sabato's Crystal Ball

THE CRYSTAL BALL SCORES NEAR PERFECT RECORD FOR ACCURACY IN PREDICTING 2008 ELECTION OUTCOMES

The Crystal Ball is proud to announce that, with only a handful of official election outcomes still pending, we recorded a nearly perfect record of accuracy in predicting the results of the 2008 Election, including the correct October prediction of the final Electoral College total of 364 Obama, 174 McCain. The 2008 predictions of the Crystal Ball also matched, exactly, the results of all gubernatorial contests and correctly predicted the outcomes of every senatorial race among all Senate contests which have been officially called by two or more major networks at the time of publication. In the 435 races for the House of Representatives, the Crystal Ball has achieved an accuracy rate of at least 98 percent, pending recounts. The Crystal Ball predicted a maximum pickup for the Democratic Party of 26 seats. Results as of time of publication appear headed toward an actual pickup for the Democrats of between 20 and 23 seats in the House. ELECTORAL COLLEGE CB Projection: 364 Obama, 174 McCain. Actual Result: 364 Obama, 174 McCain. SENATE RESULTS CB Projection: +7 to +8 Democrat. Actual Result: +5 to +7 Democrat, pending recounts and runoff. GOVERNOR RESULTS CB Projection: +1 Democrat and -1 Republican. Actual Result:

Larry J. Sabato

THE LAST LAST WORD

ELECTORAL COLLEGE UPDATE: If Barack Obama wins the popular vote by 7 or 8 percentage points, then he will also carry at least a couple of the following states: Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, Montana, North Dakota. If Barack Obama should end up by 3 or 4 percent of the popular vote, then it is possible that John McCain will carry a couple of the following states: Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio. The Crystal Ball expects Barack Obama to run closer to the maximum than to the minimum in the popular vote tally. SENATE UPDATE: CURRENTLY HELD BY DEMOCRATS State Incumbent Projected Result Arkansas Sen. Mark Pryor Democratic Delaware Sen. Joe Biden Democratic Illinois Sen. Dick Durbin Democratic Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin Democratic Louisiana Sen. Mary Landrieu Democratic Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry Democratic Michigan Sen. Carl Levin Democratic Montana Sen. Max Baucus Democratic New Jersey Sen. Frank Lautenberg Democratic Rhode Island Sen. Jack Reed Democratic South Dakota Sen. Tim Johnson Democratic West Virginia Sen. Jay Rockefeller Democratic CURRENTLY HELD BY REPUBLICANS State Incumbent Projected Result Alabama Sen. Jeff Sessions Republican Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens Democratic Colorado OPEN (Sen. Wayne Allard retiring)Mark Udall (D) vs. Bob Schaffer (R) Democratic Georgia Sen. Saxby Chambliss

Larry J. Sabato

THE LAST WORD–ALMOST

These are our 2008 election projections as of Thursday, October 30. We will make final adjustments and tweaks on Monday afternoon, November 3, and post them to the website. At that point, we will attempt to call the few remaining toss-ups. We wish everyone the best possible Election Day, with congratulations to the winners and condolences to the losers. Our sincere thanks to the thousands of readers who have offered tips, suggestions, and constructive criticism. In January 2009 we’ll start our focus on the new administration and Congress–and yes, the critical “Census/redistricting” midterm election cycle of 2010 (36 governors, thousands of state legislative seats, the entire U.S. House again, and the next third of the U.S. Senate seats on the ballot). The never-ending cycle of American politics will be played out here on Sabato’s Crystal Ball. ELECTORAL COLLEGE UPDATE: These states are close, and we will revisit them on Monday: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, and Virginia. SENATE UPDATE: CURRENTLY HELD BY DEMOCRATS State Incumbent Projected Result Arkansas Sen. Mark Pryor Democratic Delaware Sen. Joe Biden Democratic Illinois Sen. Dick Durbin Democratic Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin Democratic Louisiana Sen. Mary Landrieu Democratic Massachusetts

Larry J. Sabato

U.S. SENATE UPDATE

The Crystal Ball’s ratings for the 25 U.S. Senate contests have held up nicely since we last published them on October 2. However, as is normal in any election campaign, late developments have changed the ratings in a couple of contests. In both cases, it is more bad news for Republicans. GEORGIA: Here is a potential shocker, if the upset actually happens. One-term GOP Senator Saxby Chambliss, who was expected to win reelection handily in deeply Red Georgia, instead finds himself in a close race with an underfunded Democrat, former State Representative Jim Martin. There is no question that this is a reaction to Chambliss’ vote in favor of the rescue/bailout package passed by Congress a few weeks ago. Several polls show Chambliss barely ahead, sometimes within the statistical margin of error. Our Georgia sources suggest tentatively that Chambliss will pull out a narrow victory, but they are not confident in this prediction. They tell us that Chambliss’ television advertising is bland and does not address the key issues on the minds of voters. By contrast, the flush Democratic Senate Campaign Committee has been airing sharp, tough advertising aimed at Chambliss and on behalf of Martin. It would be phenomenal

Larry J. Sabato

SENATE SENSIBILITIES – The Update

Lots of exciting changes have occurred in the nation’s Senate races since we last reviewed them in December 2007. Yet overall, the outlook hasn’t changed much. Democrats will pick up seats to pad their slim 51-to-49 margin. They are defending a mere 12 seats, and all their incumbents are running again. The Republicans have drawn the short straw, trying to protect 23 seats with five incumbents retiring in a tough political environment for the GOP. It is still too early to project the exact size of expected Democratic gains, but it will be a major surprise if Democrats fail to add at least three or four seats. The total of projected Democratic gains may well rise considerably, possibly five to seven, depending on the electoral conditions prevailing in the fall. The GOP’s only real hope in Senate contests is that John McCain wins the Presidency handily, generating coattail in some key match-ups. In any event, the Democrats currently seem unlikely to hit the magic number of 60 seats, needed to shut down filibusters. (That assumes all 60 Democrats would stick together on key votes. Good luck.) As we noted in an earlier analysis, the Senate has changed party control six

Larry J. Sabato

SENATE SENSIBILITIES

Look at recent history. The Senate has changed party control six times: in 1980 (D to R), 1986 (R to D), 1994 (D to R), 2001 (R to D), 2002 (D to R), and 2006 (R to D). This is no longer a rare event. And the Democrats now control the Senate by the slimmest of margins, 51 to 49. Surely, then, Republicans have a real chance to recapture Congress’ upper chamber in 2008. Surely not. While strange things happen in politics, and the election is almost a year away, it would be truly extraordinary if the GOP seized the Senate. In fact, Democrats have an excellent chance to expand their margin of control, perhaps significantly. Let’s go to the states to see how. The following map shows the current party control of each state with a Senate election in 2008. Thirty-three regularly scheduled contests will take place in 2008, along with an additional two special elections. As usual, there are many contests that are not competitive. Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2008 (including two special elections, in Wyoming and Mississippi), the winning party for 25 of them is not seriously in question. State Likely Result

Larry J. Sabato

SENATE ’08 UPDATE

As of yesterday, there were exactly 475 days left until Election Day 2008. Since the Crystal Ball‘s last Senate update, filed exactly 600 days before the election, there have been a number of interesting developments that merit mention. To begin with, there will now be a total of 34 seats on the ballot, instead of the 33 originally planned. This, of course, is a result of Wyoming Senator Craig Thomas’s passing. Per the Seventeenth Amendment and Wyoming state election law, newly appointed Senator John Barrasso will face a special election on the same day as the 33 “Class Two” Senators who are up for re-election in 2008. [Note to students: Since only a third of the Senate is up every two years, the senators were divided into three “classes”, right from the beginning of the Republic, so that the elections could be properly staggered. Class Two comes up in 2008.] Whoever wins the election will inherit the rest of Thomas’s term which, as a Class One senator last elected in 2006, lasts until 2012. Those four years are almost as good as a whole term for entrenching an incumbent, so don’t expect Barrasso to get a completely free pass. Even

Isaac Wood and Larry J. Sabato

SENATE RACES ’08

Three of the last four election years have produced squeaker results in the Senate contests. In 2000 the parties emerged from November in a 50-50 tie, broken by new Vice President Cheney in the GOP’s favor in 2001. Just five months later, the Republican-to-Independent/Democratic switch of Senator Jim Jeffords of Vermont gave the Senate to the Democrats, 51-49. The post-9/11 election of 2002 flipped the Senate narrowly back in the Republicans’ direction, 51-49. Five Southern Democratic retirements in 2004 resulted in five GOP pick-ups, as the Republicans soared to a 55-45 Senate majority. This was a short-lived bump, of course, and the Democrats grabbed six Republican seats in 2006 to restore the 51-49 Senate produced by Jeffords. Since 1994 Congress’ upper chamber has remained closely contested, and in the seven general elections over the past dozen years, the GOP has on average secured 52.5 seats to the Democrats’ 47.5. At least to judge by the early line-up, it will be a surprise if the Senate doesn’t remain highly competitive after November 2008, with neither party having anywhere near the sixty reliable votes needed to run this balky, idiosyncratic institution–the saucer that cools the hot brew in the House teacup. The

Larry J. Sabato