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Brutalb

Sabato's Crystal Ball

The Brutal Bottom Line

With Election Day fast approaching, things are shaking out in terms of race outlooks. The following charts summarize the Crystal Ball’s current breakdown of the 2006 contests for Senate, House and Governor. Seats currently held by Republicans are printed in red text, and seats currently held by Democrats are printed in blue; party totals appear at the top and bottom of each column, respectively. The Crystal Ball’s “Brutal B” bottom-line predictions as of early September appear below each chart. 2006 Senate Outlook Summary Chart Republican Held Seats up for Election in 2006: 15 (out of 55 held) Solid R (7) Likely R (1) Leans R (1) Toss-up (3) Leans D (3) Likely D (0) Solid D (0) IN (Lugar) AZ (Kyl) VA (Allen) MO (Talent) MT (Burns) ME (Snowe) RI (Chafee) OH (DeWine) MS (Lott) TN (OPEN) PA (Santorum) NV (Ensign) TX (Hutchison) UT (Hatch) WY (Thomas) WV (Byrd) WI (Kohl) NY (Clinton) NM (Bingaman) ND (Conrad) MA (Kennedy) HI (Akaka) FL (Nelson) DE (Carper) NE (Nelson) CT (Lieberman*) WA (Cantwell) MN (OPEN) VT (OPEN) NJ (Menendez) MD (OPEN) MI (Stabenow) CA (Feinstein) Solid R (0) Likely R (0) Leans R (0) Toss-up (1) Leans D (2) Likely D (3)

Larry J. Sabato

The Brutal Bottom Line

President It’s all about Bush, the incumbent, especially after John Kerry’s success in the first presidential debate in shifting the focus back to the performance of the Bush administration. The people will vote “thumbs up/thumbs down” based on Bush’s handling of the twin challenges of a shaky economy and a continuing war in Iraq. Just as with his father’s presidency, “Dubya” has faced a difficult election year. Off and on, Bush has some good news to trumpet on the economy: hundreds of thousands of new jobs have been created in the past year, and most other basic economic indicators appear to be turning upwards. However, Bush’s achievements on the economy are not clear cut, and more importantly they have been overshadowed for much of the year by the somewhat unpopular Iraq war and its aftermath. The abuse of Iraqi prisoners shook the administration to its foundation, and the 9/11 Commission was a coup for the Democrats–with most of the riveting testimony and the final report used to undermine Bush’s claims to successful leadership in the war on terror. On the other hand, the handover of authority from Americans to Iraqis on June 28 appeared to have quieted the situation somewhat–though

Larry J. Sabato