General

And so it begins anew: the quadrennial orgy that eventually results in the birth of a president. Over the decades the presidential gestation period has lengthened dramatically. While the “hidden campaign” to be the next president has always consumed the entire term of the incumbent, only in the past couple of elections has the full-blown public campaign stretched from the day after the last election to Election Day four years hence. Believe it or not, we are nearly four months into the 48 month 2008 campaign–and a mere 35 months away from the start of the primary nomination season. Thus, the Crystal Ball is due for its first review of the 2008 presidential line-up. In this issue we’ll take a look at the Democrats, and next time we’ll examine the Republicans. In presidential politics there are only two questions that matter: Who would make the best nominee in each party, and who will actually be nominated? Neither question can be definitively answered this early, since campaigns unwind in unpredictable ways, much like a Hegelian coil. That won’t stop us, of course, but remember that these answers are tentative, and subject to dramatic change as conditions evolve and revelations occur. The

Every four years the president treats the country to twinned rhetorical flourishes. First comes the poetry, in the form of the Inaugural Address. Then the prose follows, in the State of the Union address. Vigorous warfare between Democrats and Republicans has been waged without surcease, save for a few blessed days after the Nov. 2 election. With neither party giving any quarter, the president entered the House chamber to give the first State of the Union of his second term. Bush came as a conquering hero, possessing something lacking on Inauguration Day: real hope in Iraq, a consequence of the successful Jan. 30 elections on which Bush had staked virtually everything. In this one respect, Bush’s State of the Union had the element of “hope” that FDR offered on March 4, 1933, when he uttered his immortal words: “We have nothing to fear but [pause for effect] fear itself!” White House operatives could feel justifiable pride in this clever, fortuitous juxtaposition of events. The scheduling of the State of the Union so soon after the Iraqi elections was an enormous gamble, but it paid off. Second terms usually seem flat. The fizz has long since gone out of a presidency,