Notes on state of pol

Primary date musical chairs With all of the uncertainty surrounding the Republican presidential primary battle as we approach Iowa, at least the schedule for primaries and caucuses is set in stone, right? Guess again. It turns out that even the calendar is keeping us on our toes this campaign cycle. Ohio and Texas, two major states with a large number of delegates — Ohio with 66, and Texas with 155 — have shifted their primaries to new dates. On Dec. 15, Gov. John Kasich of Ohio signed off on moving the Ohio primary to Super Tuesday (March 6) from its previous position on June 12. This move was part of a larger bill that finished redistricting and ensures that Ohio will hold only one primary for all its races, not two (saving the state $15 million). Now that it’s a part of Super Tuesday, Ohio likely will have a better chance of influencing the race for the GOP nomination. Meanwhile, the Lone Star State had to shift its primary from Super Tuesday back to April 3 because of ongoing drama over its congressional redistricting. After Texas Republicans drew a new map to account for the state’s four new districts, the

Gingrich grabs lead in Hawkeye State Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, also a former college history professor, has written a number of alternate history novels. But the plots of his re-imaginations of World War II and the Civil War would pale in comparison to the potentially very real story of his comeback from Republican afterthought to possible Republican presidential nominee. A Des Moines Register poll released over the weekend shows Gingrich leading the GOP field in Iowa with 25%. His next closest competitors are Rep. Ron Paul at 18% and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney at 16 percent. This number represents a huge gain for the former speaker, as the last poll, released on Oct. 29, had him in fifth place with 7%. Poll after poll released this week has shown him solidifying his Iowa lead. With less than a month before the Iowa caucus on Jan. 3, the poll seems to send a clear message.  A closer look at the data reveals some interesting numbers, though. Despite the highly positive numbers for Gingrich, 60% of those polled stated that they might switch their support to an alternate candidate, while 11% remain undecided. Even more remarkable is that

Tomblin survives in West Virginia Give West Virginia’s acting governor, Earl Ray Tomblin, some credit: He fought off a spirited effort from a stronger-than expected challenger and the powerful Republican Governors Association to win the right to remove “acting” from his title. Tomblin, a career Mountain State Democratic legislator, defeated Republican businessman Bill Maloney by about 2.5 percentage points in Tuesday’s West Virginia gubernatorial special election. Maloney beat Tomblin in two of the state’s three congressional districts, but Tomblin carried the Third District (in the southern part of the state) by more than 20 points, according to Bloomberg congressional race guru Greg Giroux. That’s good news for that district’s long-time Democratic incumbent, Rep. Nick Rahall, although Maloney’s win in the First District — held by the narrowly-elected freshman Rep. David McKinley (R) — might be another indicator that that district is trending away from Democrats. This race could be repeated next year, when Tomblin will try to win a full term and Maloney, emboldened by his strong showing, might try for a rematch. We also don’t know if Rep. Shelley Moore Capito, R-WV and daughter of former Gov. Arch Moore, will toss her hat in the ring. Meanwhile, Sen. Joe

Too Late for Christie, Palin? While New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie has denied that he will enter the Republican presidential primary field, many political insiders continue to buzz over this possibility — especially after his Tuesday night speech at the Reagan Presidential Library. Those close to him — including his own brother, Todd — have clearly stated their doubts that Gov. Christie will run. The possibility remains, however, that Christie will dispel these doubts and join the field.  Either way, though, the governor of the Garden State is inching closer to primary filing deadlines that could effectively keep him out of the running. The filing deadline for the Utah primary, Oct. 15, is fast approaching. While a potential Christie campaign would most likely not suffer from missing this contest, his staff will have to be mindful of the next deadline: Florida. Failing to file by the Oct. 31 deadline in the Sunshine State would almost certainly derail any chance that Christie would have at grabbing the Republican nomination. As the New York Times recently reported, these deadlines will similarly affect Sarah Palin and her decision to join the Republican field. Candidates such as Gov. Rick Perry have certainly been able to enter the race