Project Home Fire

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The end of Roe vs. Wade could potentially give Democrats a better chance to motivate their own voters and/or persuade Republican-leaning swing voters. — Public opinion on abortion is nuanced, although more are likelier to take the pro-abortion rights side on a couple of key questions. — It’s unclear whether abortion opinions would outweigh the public’s opinions about other issues where Democrats are vulnerable. Abortion and the midterms The potential demise of Roe vs. Wade could both help Democrats generate higher turnout and appeal better to persuadable, Republican-leaning swing voters in the 2022 election who generally have a concern about women losing access to safe and legal abortion services, according to a new analysis from the University of Virginia Center for Politics/Project Home Fire data analytics project. These findings are based on Project Home Fire’s baseline survey and analysis of the attitudes of roughly 1,000 Joe Biden and 1,000 Donald Trump voters collected prior to Monday’s Politico report about a potential Supreme Court decision that could overrule Roe. (For more information about this project, see some of our past reports linked at the end of this article.) Project Home Fire asked respondents a couple

Dear Readers: Please join us this evening for a special University of Virginia Center for Politics virtual event: “The Shock of January 6,” commemorating the first anniversary of the storming of the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. UVA Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato will moderate the event live from the UVA Rotunda’s Dome Room this evening from 6 p.m. to 7:45 p.m. Scheduled speakers are: Rep. Liz Cheney (R, WY-AL); Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA); Jonathan Karl of ABC News; Jim Acosta of CNN; Center for Politics resident scholars Jamelle Bouie, Chris Krebs, and Tara Setmayer; author Mary Trump; Project Home Fire’s Larry Schack and Mick McWilliams; and Renew America Movement co-founder Miles Taylor. Plan to join us via livestream at https://livestream.com/tavco/theshockofjanuary6th. In today’s Crystal Ball, we mark the anniversary of Jan. 6 with 3 pieces looking at how the public views what happened: — Project Home Fire’s Larry Schack and Mick McWilliams, who have been working with the UVA Center for Politics on an ongoing project analyzing the differences between Joe Biden and Donald Trump voters, discuss the attitudes that lead to Americans believing those who stormed the Capitol are insurgents — or patriots. — Crystal Ball

Dear Readers: Join us tonight from 6:30 p.m. to 8 p.m. for our annual American Democracy Conference. The virtual event will begin with a presentation by Project Home Fire’s Larry Schack and Mick McWilliams on our ongoing polling and data analytics project — their latest report is below. They will be followed by discussions on the state of politics moderated by Carah Whaley, Assistant Director of the James Madison Center for Civic Engagement, and featuring UVA Center for Politics resident scholars Jamelle Bouie, David Ramadan, and Tara Setmayer; former Rep. Barbara Comstock (R, VA-10); and Crystal Ball Managing Editor Kyle Kondik. The free, virtual event will be available at this link: https://livestream.com/tavco/uvacfp-adc2021 — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — When viewed without a party lens, there is majority support for aspects of the Freedom to Vote Act. But Joe Biden and Donald Trump voters express dramatically different opinions on this topic, and, by association, they have divergent viewpoints on the debate currently occurring in the U.S. Senate. (see Figure 1 below) — Opinions are even more polarized on legislation currently being considered at the state level. Biden voters perceive these efforts as tantamount to legalizing voter suppression and

Brief Shots are quick, newsworthy notes from the UVA Center for Politics/Project Home Fire polling and data analytics project. See here for more information on the ongoing project. Last week, Senate Republicans blocked action on the Freedom to Vote Act. By way of background, this legislation would enact automatic voter registration, set federal standards for early and mail-in voting, place constraints on the partisan drawing of congressional districts, known as “gerrymandering,” and make Election Day a national holiday, among other measures. Democrats say that federal legislation is needed to counter efforts in Republican-controlled states that would impose new restrictions to make it harder for Americans — especially people of color — to vote. Republicans counter with their viewpoint that the proposed federal legislation would amount to a federal takeover of elections. Republicans view themselves as a group whose actions would make it easier for those who are legally qualified to vote and at the same time prevent voter fraud, while viewing what the Democrats are attempting as a power grab. Our research finds that there is majority support for aspects of the Freedom to Vote Act. More than 5 in 10 of those who voted in the 2020 election strongly

Project Home Fire Brief Shot: The Abortion Divide Brief Shots are quick, newsworthy notes from the UVA Center for Politics/Project Home Fire polling and data analytics project. On Monday, President Joe Biden’s administration asked the U.S. Supreme Court to block a Texas law that imposes strict limits on abortion. The Supreme Court has agreed to consider fast track appeal of the case. With that as background, we looked at abortion opinions by voters who supported Joe Biden and those who supported Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential election. What we found is that a strong indicator of a voter’s position on abortion is who they voted for in 2020. Biden voters are 3 times more likely than Trump voters to support keeping abortion legal in most situations. And they are significantly more concerned than Trump voters with preventing women from losing access to safe and legal abortion services. The very different opinions these two groups of voters have on immigration, abortion, and so much more highlight the challenge for those who wish to encourage bridge-building and constructive dialogue and re-affirm America’s reputation as the world’s leading representative democracy. But as this release shows — see below — there is hope

Dear Readers: This is the second in a series of planned releases on a polling and data analytics project conducted by the University of Virginia Center for Politics and Project Home Fire, a new initiative committed to identifying and addressing the social, political, and psychological divides between those who voted for Donald Trump and those who voted for Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election. Our first release, which explains the project and some of the divides between the two camps, is available here. We also supplemented that release with more information about one of the questions we asked, on secession, and how support for secession was linked with belief in various conspiracy theories. This week’s release explores one of the most hot-button issues in American politics: immigration. The findings underscore the importance of immigration in our national divide. They also suggest that while a majority of voters profile as unpersuadable on immigration, others are more persuadable on this topic. They need to feel that creating pathways and opportunities for immigrants won’t disadvantage them. Today’s report analyzes the immigration question, and others, through an analysis of public opinion. The UVA Center for Politics’ latest documentary, Five Years North, explores immigration

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Belief in conspiracy theories is most consistently correlated with Biden and Trump voters who favor secession. — The majority of citizens who voted for Joe Biden or Donald Trump in the last election, when combined, believe in at least one of the conspiracy theories (43% of Biden voters and 90% of Trump voters). — But while the percentage of Trump voters who ascribe to these conspiracies significantly outpaces that of Biden voters, conspiracy-believing Biden voters are more likely to say blue states should secede from the union than are conspiracy-believing Trump voters likely to say red states should secede. — Additionally, several other authoritarian beliefs are significantly more prevalent among voters who support secession. The secession question In last week’s debut release on the findings from a new UVA Center for Politics/Project Home Fire study of the political, social, and psychological divides between Donald Trump and Joe Biden voters, we highlighted that fully 46% of the 2020 presidential election voters we surveyed at least somewhat agreed with this statement: “The situation in America has reached the point that I would be in favor of the [TRUMP VOTERS: more conservative “red” states / BIDEN VOTERS: