Crystal Ball Outlook: Likely D

Democratic candidate: Russ Carnahan, Incumbent

Republican candidate: Ed Martin, former chief-of-staff to Governor Matt Blunt

Recent updates from the Crystal Ball


Minority Leader Richard Gephardt retired here in 2004, and in his place they elected Russ Carnahan. Carnahan had trouble with his initial election, but has won re-election since with over 60 percent of the vote. His voting record tilts leftward, but is generally middle-of-the-pack for the Democratic caucus.

Normally we would not give the Republican much of a chance in district, but the Republican candidate, Ed Martin, the former Chief of Staff to Gov. Matt Blunt, has just as much cash-on-hand as Carnahan. If the Republicans are strategic and can ride on their current momentum, then Martin may have a chance.