Sabato’s Crystal Ball

Does Edwards have Recipe for Success? Any American chef worth his or her salt knows what happens when you combine black eyed peas, a little bit of ham for flavor, some rice, and a few other ingredients. The result is a traditional Southern side-dish known as Hoppin’ John. Last night at the Democratic National Convention, it was a different kind of John who had the crowd hoppin’. John Edwards’s speech, which did have a measure of starchy substance alongside the warmth and flavor, brought the simmering Fleet Center crowd to a boil. Throw in a performance by Black Eyed Peas at the end, and you’ve got a recipe that had all of the delegations salivating, not just those south of the Mason-Dixon Line. The success of the VP nominee’s performance inside the convention hall is unquestioned. The success outside, however, is another story. Many have noted that his “Two Americas” theme is a striking contrast with Barack Obama’s “One America” speech on Tuesday. While Edwards certainly answered any questions about his desire to serve his country in the White House, he spent little time discussing his actual qualifications to hold the office. When compared to current VP Dick Cheney in

Gentlemen, Start Your Engines While you don’t hear the term bandied about much anymore, the hot topic earlier in the campaign season was “NASCAR Dads,” 2004’s trendy demographic group that was purported to take the place of the quickly-fading-from-popularity “Soccer Moms.” NASCAR Dads were often described as middle- to lower middle-class family men who typically live in rural or suburban areas, and who used to vote Democratic but are now trending Republican. The likelihood that this is an accurate demographic that will be a swing group in the fall is small, but it turns out that there is still something for them here at the Democratic National Convention in Boston. On Wednesday afternoon at the New England Aquarium Plaza, the NASCAR Nextel Cup Family Festival took place, featuring a showing of the IMAX film on NASCAR, as well as an appearance by driver Kasey Khane, who is currently racing in both the Nextel Cup and Busch Series. Protests Enter the Lumbar Region Demonstrations and rallies continued on Wednesday, with the more interesting ones taking place further from the Fleet Center. Making a stop in Copley Square, just across from the Boston Public Library was the Backbone Campaign, “a grassroots effort

If a Political Tree Falls in the Woods… With no live network coverage of Tuesday night’s convention speeches, their impact on the American public is limited to news highlights, newspaper articles, and word of mouth. Save for keynote speaker Barack Obama and Teresa Heinz Kerry, who closed the evening, most of the podium-dwellers lacked a great deal of national appeal. Senator Edward Kennedy spoke for a solid 25 minutes, to a cheering crowd waving “KENNEDY” signs, while California First Lady Maria Shriver watched from a Fleet Center luxury box. Kennedy is one of very few speakers this week to actually utter the name “Bush,” when he referenced the president at the end of his remarks. Most speakers to this point have only alluded to the current administration. Senator Tom Daschle and retiring Congressman Dick Gephardt addressed the convention early in the evening, both giving relatively brief speeches and receiving warm welcomes from the crowd. Daschle will actually be leaving before Kerry accepts the nomination on Thursday, traveling to South Dakota for his own campaign. Ron Reagan, son of former president Ronald Reagan, also took the podium on Tuesday night and, as expected, refrained from making any significant partisan remarks. Instead,

Old Guard, Young Blood Tonight’s agenda of speakers shows a marked difference between the first evening session and the second evening session, with a recognizable slate of long-serving Democrats addressing the convention early, and a fresh line up of new faces wrapping up the evening. Other than The O.C.’s Benjamin McKenzie, most of the early speakers have been around the block a few times: Senator Edward Kennedy, Congressman Dick Gephardt, and Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle. The transition from the first to the second evening session is segued by two of the early competitors for the Democratic nomination, Carol Moseley Braun and Howard Dean. Dean–who is likely to keep his voice down–will be followed by Democratic up and comers AZ Governor Janet Napolitano and IL Senate candidate Barack Obama. Obama, who will be delivering the evening’s keynote speech, is a hot commodity at the convention; his campaign buttons, simply reading “OBAMA,” have spread throughout the Fleet Center this week. While the Crystal Ball recognizes that the conventions are for the most part a week long motivational session for partisans on each side, there is a level of excitement that can only benefit the political process. There has been a noticeable

Opening Night By the time the second evening session started, most of the seats in the Fleet Center were filled–even those behind the stage, with obstructed views and a less than preferable position behind the speaker clusters. Former President Jimmy Carter led off with an impassioned speech that was very critical of the current administration, although he refrained from mentioning President Bush by name. The speakers who followed were a diverse group of Democratic members of Congress, including Stephanie Tubbs Jones (OH), Tammy Baldwin (WI), and Robert Menendez (NJ)–who delivered a portion of his remarks in Spanish. But, as the evening grew late, the crowd was clearly getting restless in anticipation of Senator Hilary Clinton, who would be introducing her husband and former president Bill Clinton. Her remarks were brief, but well received by the Democratic faithful, and she wasted little time in getting to the introduction. When he emerged form backstage, it was to the largest ovation of the evening. His remarks touched on tax cuts, Social Security, federal funding for law enforcement, national security, and international relations, before moving on to John Kerry. When talking about Kerry, Clinton referred to his experience Vietnam and willingness to volunteer, eventually

For Whom the Gavel Drops Democratic National Committee chair Terry McAuliffe officially banged the convention to order this afternoon at 4PM, opening the first afternoon session which will feature quite a few speakers and take care of the convention’s parliamentary business in preparation for this evening’s prime time agenda. Security around the Fleet Center is indeed tight, with representatives from all different levels of law enforcement. The City of Boston expects to spend over $60 million on security, and up to this point there have been no major incidents. While there are only 4,353 delegates (plus 611 alternates), the Democratic National convention Committee has credentialed roughly 15,000 members of the media, and 15,000 other guests–including elected officials and foreign dignitaries—all of whom are expected to be in attendance during the week. Prime Time Viewing Guide The evening session will be divided into two distinct parts, beginning at 7PM and 9PM, respectively. Below is a list of speakers: 7PM Session: FL Congressman Kendrick Meek MTV essay contest winner Michael Negron Boston Mayor Tom Menino TX Congressman James Turner MD Congressman and Democratic Whip Steny Hoyer DNC Chair Terry McAuliffe NM Governor Bill Richardson Bebe Winans singing the National Anthem Former Vice

The gavel drops later today, marking the official opening of the 2004 Democratic National Convention. Of course, convention related activities have been going on for several days now, including a welcome party for media organizations on Saturday. The Crystal Ball resisted the temptation to be wooed, and instead chose to spend its time in preparation for a busy week of coverage. Official welcome receptions for state delegations took place throughout the city on Sunday, but not everyone here in town is in support of the convention. The weekend witnessed several organized protests, including an anti-war rally at the Fleet Center, an anti-abortion demonstration outside of Faneuil Hall, a march by families of 9/11 victims ending at Copley Square, and a protest by LaRouche supporters outside of Harvard’s John F. Kennedy School of Government. The big names addressing the convention this evening include former president Jimmy Carter, Senator Hillary Clinton, former president Bill Clinton, 2000 nominee Al Gore, Senator Barbara Mikulski, and convention chair and New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson. Also, one of John Kerry’s Vietnam crewmates–David Alston–will speak during prime time. Don’t expect to hear a lot of substance from many of today’s speakers, but rather a high level of