Crystal Ball Outlook: Leans D
Democratic candidates: Richard Blumenthal, attorney general of CT
Republican candidates: Linda McMahon, former CEO of WWE
Recent updates from the Crystal Ball
Update: October 5th, 2010
Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (D) was considered a shoo-in when the contest began. But Blumenthal has self-funding Linda McMahon hot on his trail. This match-up will tell us a great deal, early on election night, about Republican chances to find the elusive ten seats they need to take control of the Senate.
Update: May 20, 2010
The Republicans’ opportunity to win this one appeared to vanish when damaged Sen. Chris Dodd (D) agreed to retire. Attorney General Dick Blumenthal, long the bridesmaid, was set to become the bride in November over either wrestling executive Linda McMahon (the GOP nomination favorite) or ex-Congressman Rob Simmons. Then came Tuesday’s devastating New York Times revelation that Blumenthal had claimed to be a Vietnam veteran when he had, in fact, sought multiple deferments to keep from going (though he did serve in the Marine Reserves without a Vietnam tour of duty). The contest is now in turmoil and cannot be reliably rated. Democrats appear to be sticking with Blumenthal, but no one knows if the broader public will be equally forgiving or if additional “resume enhancements” will come to light. A secondary question arises: Will Vietnam veteran and medal-winner Rob Simmons generate new traction over Linda McMahon on the GOP side? We believe the contest could still settle into the Democratic column, but at the moment, it is just a confusing TOSS UP.
Update: April 8, 2010
The Republicans’ opportunity to win this one appeared to vanish when damaged Sen. Chris Dodd (D) agreed to retire. Attorney General Dick Blumenthal, long the bridesmaid, becomes the bride in November over wrestling executive Linda McMahon or ex-Congressman Rob Simmons.
Update: November 19, 2009
There are several Democratic incumbents who look to be vulnerable in 2010. Sen. Christopher Dodd (CT) has a plateful of problems, not least that he is identified with the banking system at a time when “banker” is even more unpopular than “lawyer”. Even Ralph Nader is considering an independent run for Dodd’s seat. For the Republicans, former Congressman Rob Simmons (R) is a respectable challenger. However, others are running for the GOP nod, and we don’t completely rule out the possibility that an out-of-the-box GOP candidate like wealthy World Wide Wresting CEO Linda McMahon could upset Simmons in the primary. A wrestler has a natural advantage in politics–and today’s Senate.
Update: June 25, 2009
Sen. Chris Dodd of Connecticut is still weak, despite somewhat improving poll numbers, a TV ad endorsement from Ted Kennedy, and favorable publicity in leading President Obama’s credit card company reform bill to passage. Former GOP Congressman Rob Simmons is the likely Republican nominee and will present Dodd with a first-rate challenge. However, Connecticut is a deeply Blue state, and no one should count Chris Dodd out. He has already launched a vigorous rescue operation to save his career, and he has a year and a half to regain the trust of his constituents.
Update: February 19, 2009
Christopher Dodd (D-CT): Dodd has had a rough couple of years, losing his presidential bid badly, after moving his family to Iowa and seemingly abandoning Connecticut. Dodd has also attracted much criticism for his role in the banking and housing crisis (he chairs the Senate Banking Committee). His approval ratings are weak, considering how Democratic Blue Connecticut now is. This contest bears watching. Still, the only Republican who is an obvious threat to Dodd is Governor Jodi Rell (R-CT), an immensely popular chief executive. Yet she seems more likely to run for reelection. After Rell, the GOP bench is thin. With the defeat of U.S. Rep. Christopher Shays (R-CT) in 2008, Republicans do not hold a single House seat in the Nutmeg State (or anywhere else in the once-impregnable GOP stronghold of New England). Shays has been mentioned as a Dodd challenger, but former Congressman Rob Simmons (R), who lost his seat in 2006, may be more likely to run. It will take a lot to unseat Dodd, but given his low polling numbers, he is no slam dunk. Even if the GOP candidate turns out to be Chris Shays or Rob Simmons, Dodd could be in trouble. We’ll call this one POTENTIALLY COMPETITIVE.