Arkansas

Outlook: Likely Republican

6 Electoral Votes (6 in 2000)
Bush won in 2004 by 9.76%

Arkansas is a conservative state, yet it is dominated by Democrats. Both of its U.S. Senate seats are occupied by Democrats, as are three of its four seats in Congress, the governor’s mansion, and the majority of both chambers of its state Legislature. Of course, most of these Democratic representatives are of the Blue Dog Democrat variety–conservatives who do not agree with some of the national party positions. This probably explains why George W. Bush won Arkansas by 6 percent in 2000 and by nearly 10 percent in 2004. With Barack Obama toeing closer to the Democratic Party line than most Arkansan Democrats, he will be hard-pressed to capture the state’s electoral votes.