Notes on the State of Off-Year Elections: Wisconsin, Florida, and Pennsylvania
Wisconsin will hold a state Supreme Court election next week, where liberals are defending their 4-3 majority. Florida will also…
Notes on the State of Politics: New Hampshire Senate and Change in Virginia
The New Hampshire Senate race gets a little more competitive with Sen. Jeanne Shaheen's (D) retirement; in Virginia, Democrats' 2024…
House District Loyalty in the Trump Era
During the three Trump era presidential elections, fewer than 30 of the current House districts would have supported either party…
Minnesota Senate to Leans Democratic
In 2026, Minnesota will see its first open-seat Senate contest since 2006, following Sen. Tina Smith's (D) retirement announcement. Lt.…
Checking Back on Key 2024 Counties, Part Two: The Sun Belt
Ahead of the 2024 election, the Crystal Ball isolated a number of swing-state counties that seemed likely to be informative.…
Checking Back on Key 2024 Counties, Part One: The Industrial North
Before the 2024 election, the Crystal Ball flagged a number of key counties, which ended up telling us something about…
Wisconsin 2024: Not Critical But Still Crucial
Of the 7 states that were considered Toss-ups during the 2024 campaign, Kamala Harris fared best in Wisconsin, although Donald…
How Virginia Illustrates the 2024 Election
In 2024, Kamala Harris held Virginia by about a 52%-46% margin, which was several points worse than Joe Biden's 2020…
The State-Level Differences Between the Presidential and Senate Races
In 2024, Senate Democrats held at least 4 seats in states that Trump won at the presidential level, marking somewhat…
Places to Watch, Part Two: The Sun Belt
North Carolina and Georgia each have suburban counties where Kamala Harris could gain next month, although Donald Trump may well…
Indiana Governor Moves to the Edge of the Playing Field
We announced a rating change last week that we’d like to formalize today: We are moving Indiana’s gubernatorial race from…
Places to Watch, Part One: The Industrial North
While the 7 states that the Crystal Ball currently rates as Toss-ups will be important in the Electoral College, each…
Electoral College Rating Changes: GA Back to Toss-up, MN/NH Better for Democrats
In the few weeks that Vice President Kamala Harris has emerged as Democrats’ standard bearer, she has “reset” the electoral…
How Current Presidential Polling May Impact House Races
On Monday, Rep. Angie Craig (D, MN-2) became the first House Democrat from a marginal district to call for Biden…
Notes on the State of Politics: June 26, 2024
In NY-16's blockbuster primary, Rep. Jamaal Bowman loses his seat to George Latimer; Colorado Repubicans nominated their most electable candidates…