Checking Back on Key 2024 Counties, Part Two: The Sun Belt February 6, 2025 Ahead of the 2024 election, the Crystal Ball isolated a number of swing-state counties that seemed likely to be informative.…
Checking Back on Key 2024 Counties, Part One: The Industrial North January 30, 2025 Before the 2024 election, the Crystal Ball flagged a number of key counties, which ended up telling us something about…
Wisconsin 2024: Not Critical But Still Crucial December 12, 2024 Of the 7 states that were considered Toss-ups during the 2024 campaign, Kamala Harris fared best in Wisconsin, although Donald…
How Virginia Illustrates the 2024 Election November 22, 2024 In 2024, Kamala Harris held Virginia by about a 52%-46% margin, which was several points worse than Joe Biden's 2020…
The State-Level Differences Between the Presidential and Senate Races November 14, 2024 In 2024, Senate Democrats held at least 4 seats in states that Trump won at the presidential level, marking somewhat…
Places to Watch, Part Two: The Sun Belt October 10, 2024 North Carolina and Georgia each have suburban counties where Kamala Harris could gain next month, although Donald Trump may well…
Indiana Governor Moves to the Edge of the Playing Field October 9, 2024 We announced a rating change last week that we’d like to formalize today: We are moving Indiana’s gubernatorial race from…
Places to Watch, Part One: The Industrial North September 26, 2024 While the 7 states that the Crystal Ball currently rates as Toss-ups will be important in the Electoral College, each…
Electoral College Rating Changes: GA Back to Toss-up, MN/NH Better for Democrats August 7, 2024 In the few weeks that Vice President Kamala Harris has emerged as Democrats’ standard bearer, she has “reset” the electoral…
How Current Presidential Polling May Impact House Races July 11, 2024 On Monday, Rep. Angie Craig (D, MN-2) became the first House Democrat from a marginal district to call for Biden…
Notes on the State of Politics: June 26, 2024 June 26, 2024 In NY-16's blockbuster primary, Rep. Jamaal Bowman loses his seat to George Latimer; Colorado Repubicans nominated their most electable candidates…
Notes on the State of Virginia’s Primary June 19, 2024 In Virginia's primaries, Cao and Vindman cruise to victory in their contests, while retiring Rep. Jennifer Wexton (D) gets her…
Notes on the State of Politics: June 12, 2024 June 12, 2024 Republicans win a special election in OH-6 by an underwhelming margin; elsewhere, Maine, Nevada, North Dakota, and South Carolina held…
Notes on the State of Politics: June 5, 2024 June 5, 2024 In last night's primaries, Rep. Andy Kim (D, NJ-3) easily won the Democratic primary for Senate in his state; we…
Districts of Change, Part Three: When Each District Was Most Democratic (and Most Republican) May 30, 2024 Using data from Dave Redistricting App, we are tracking how every district leaned, compared to the nation as a whole,…