The Seats-in-Trouble Forecasts of the 2022 Midterm Congressional Elections
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — This article updates and applies the seats-in-trouble congressional election forecasting equations to the 2022
The Trial-Heat and Convention Bump Forecasts of the 2020 Presidential Election
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The Trial-Heat and Convention Bump Forecasting Models have an excellent record for accurate predictions
Introduction: The 2018 Midterm Election Forecasts
Editor’s Note: In an effort to provide as broad a view as possible to readers about different methods of forecasting
The Seats-in-Trouble Forecasts of the 2018 Midterm Congressional Elections
The Seats-in-Trouble model of party seat change in national congressional elections (both on-year and midterms) is a hybrid election forecasting
How Accurate Were the Political Science Forecasts of the 2016 Presidential Election?
With the dust settling from one of the most brutal and nasty presidential campaigns in modern American history and with
Seeing the Forest for the Trees: Presidential Election Forecasts and the Fundamentals
Dear Readers: Over the past couple of months, we’ve been running a series on election forecasting models. James E. Campbell,
The Political Science Election Forecasts of the 2016 Presidential and Congressional Elections
Dear Readers: This is the first of a multi-part series on the political science forecasts of the 2016 races for
Can President Obama Survive His Economic Record?
The Crystal Ball is pleased this week to feature an essay from Prof. James E. Campbell, UB Distinguished Professor of
The 2008 Election in Perspective
Some political analysts have interpreted the 2008 presidential election as an ordinary retrospective election. With a very unpopular Republican incumbent
Getting More Out of the Polls
Political observers have become more sophisticated in their reading of polls in recent years. They know enough now not to
RESPONSE: ANYBODY’S BALL GAME
In their examination of the fundamentals and the polls to this point in the 2008 election, my esteemed colleagues Alan