A Labor Day Status Report
We’ve been starting Crystal Ball pieces with a few “key points” summing up the article. As we head into Labor
Ratings Changes: Senate, Governor, House
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Republican primary voters avoided a self-inflicted wound in West Virginia when disgraced coal baron
Notes on the State of Politics
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The partisan structure of the races for governorships and Senate seats are now exact
Rating the New Pennsylvania House map
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Assuming that a new court-drawn U.S. House map stands, Democrats should be able to
Senate 2018: Republicans Still Have Plenty of Targets
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Republicans have better than 50-50 odds to hold control of the U.S. Senate even
Blue Stars Fell on Alabama
Prior to the Alabama special Senate election on Tuesday night, there was an ongoing discussion in the media about whether
Alabama Senate: It’s a Toss-up
With less than two weeks to go until the Alabama Senate runoff, we’re pulling back our Leans Democratic rating in
Alabama Senate: Jones Now Narrowly Favored
Editor’s note: The Crystal Ball will not be publishing next week. We wish our readers a Happy Thanksgiving. It’s amazing
Democratic Domination in the Old Dominion
Editor’s note: This piece is based on unofficial 2017 election returns. Tuesday represented the best non-presidential election night Democrats have
Signs and Portents
In an off-year long on election commentary but short on actual elections, the two main events on a Spartan political
The Politics of Disasters
Throughout the first 200-plus days of Donald Trump’s presidency, it’s been common for analysts to say he is struggling through
Democrats Start with Edge in Virginia Gubernatorial Race
There was one close race and one not-so close race in the gubernatorial primaries in Virginia on Tuesday, but the
Incumbent reelection rates higher than average in 2016
The Crystal Ball will be away for the next two weeks. We’ll be back on Thursday, Jan. 5. We wish
2018 Senate: The Democrats Are Very Exposed
A potential silver lining for Democrats is that they head into the 2018 midterm as the party that does not
In 2016’s game of musical chairs, the music stopped at the wrong time for Clinton
After the Bay of Pigs debacle, when U.S.-backed forces tried and spectacularly failed to topple Fidel Castro’s nascent communist regime