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2008 House

Sabato's Crystal Ball

NOT YOUR FATHER’S DEMOCRATIC CONGRESS

The last two Democratic presidents have a lot in common. Like Bill Clinton before him, Barack Obama is a gifted 40-something politician, a strong orator with a high likeability quotient, and a successful candidate who captured the White House by running on a platform offering big change. And like Clinton, Obama begins his administration blessed with large Democratic majorities at the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue. In fact, the Democratic congressional majorities that Obama enjoys now are virtually identical in size to what Clinton began with 16 years ago. Clinton was accompanied to Washington in 1993 by 258 Democrats in the House and 57 in the Senate. For Obama, last fall’s election produced 257 House Democrats and 56 Senate Democrats, a total that inches higher if one counts the two independent senators–Joe Lieberman of Connecticut and Bernard Sanders of Vermont–who caucus with the Democrats. An additional Senate seat could fall to the Democrats once the long-running race in Minnesota is finally settled. Yet the surface equality masks a major difference between the two Democratic Congresses. The conservative Southern wing of the party was much stronger then than it is now, giving Obama the chance to govern these days with a

Rhodes Cook

THE CRYSTAL BALL SCORES NEAR PERFECT RECORD FOR ACCURACY IN PREDICTING 2008 ELECTION OUTCOMES

The Crystal Ball is proud to announce that, with only a handful of official election outcomes still pending, we recorded a nearly perfect record of accuracy in predicting the results of the 2008 Election, including the correct October prediction of the final Electoral College total of 364 Obama, 174 McCain. The 2008 predictions of the Crystal Ball also matched, exactly, the results of all gubernatorial contests and correctly predicted the outcomes of every senatorial race among all Senate contests which have been officially called by two or more major networks at the time of publication. In the 435 races for the House of Representatives, the Crystal Ball has achieved an accuracy rate of at least 98 percent, pending recounts. The Crystal Ball predicted a maximum pickup for the Democratic Party of 26 seats. Results as of time of publication appear headed toward an actual pickup for the Democrats of between 20 and 23 seats in the House. ELECTORAL COLLEGE CB Projection: 364 Obama, 174 McCain. Actual Result: 364 Obama, 174 McCain. SENATE RESULTS CB Projection: +7 to +8 Democrat. Actual Result: +5 to +7 Democrat, pending recounts and runoff. GOVERNOR RESULTS CB Projection: +1 Democrat and -1 Republican. Actual Result:

Larry J. Sabato

THE LAST LAST WORD

ELECTORAL COLLEGE UPDATE: If Barack Obama wins the popular vote by 7 or 8 percentage points, then he will also carry at least a couple of the following states: Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, Montana, North Dakota. If Barack Obama should end up by 3 or 4 percent of the popular vote, then it is possible that John McCain will carry a couple of the following states: Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio. The Crystal Ball expects Barack Obama to run closer to the maximum than to the minimum in the popular vote tally. SENATE UPDATE: CURRENTLY HELD BY DEMOCRATS State Incumbent Projected Result Arkansas Sen. Mark Pryor Democratic Delaware Sen. Joe Biden Democratic Illinois Sen. Dick Durbin Democratic Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin Democratic Louisiana Sen. Mary Landrieu Democratic Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry Democratic Michigan Sen. Carl Levin Democratic Montana Sen. Max Baucus Democratic New Jersey Sen. Frank Lautenberg Democratic Rhode Island Sen. Jack Reed Democratic South Dakota Sen. Tim Johnson Democratic West Virginia Sen. Jay Rockefeller Democratic CURRENTLY HELD BY REPUBLICANS State Incumbent Projected Result Alabama Sen. Jeff Sessions Republican Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens Democratic Colorado OPEN (Sen. Wayne Allard retiring)Mark Udall (D) vs. Bob Schaffer (R) Democratic Georgia Sen. Saxby Chambliss

Larry J. Sabato

THE LAST WORD–ALMOST

These are our 2008 election projections as of Thursday, October 30. We will make final adjustments and tweaks on Monday afternoon, November 3, and post them to the website. At that point, we will attempt to call the few remaining toss-ups. We wish everyone the best possible Election Day, with congratulations to the winners and condolences to the losers. Our sincere thanks to the thousands of readers who have offered tips, suggestions, and constructive criticism. In January 2009 we’ll start our focus on the new administration and Congress–and yes, the critical “Census/redistricting” midterm election cycle of 2010 (36 governors, thousands of state legislative seats, the entire U.S. House again, and the next third of the U.S. Senate seats on the ballot). The never-ending cycle of American politics will be played out here on Sabato’s Crystal Ball. ELECTORAL COLLEGE UPDATE: These states are close, and we will revisit them on Monday: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, and Virginia. SENATE UPDATE: CURRENTLY HELD BY DEMOCRATS State Incumbent Projected Result Arkansas Sen. Mark Pryor Democratic Delaware Sen. Joe Biden Democratic Illinois Sen. Dick Durbin Democratic Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin Democratic Louisiana Sen. Mary Landrieu Democratic Massachusetts

Larry J. Sabato

HOUSE RACE UPDATE

Every week it seems to get worse for House Republicans. As we will demonstrate below, we have expanded the number of possible to likely net gains for Democrats from our previous 15 to 20 to a new and rather astounding 22 to 27 seats. The past week has been a wild one for congressional races nationwide. Some contests have gotten more competitive, and in some districts one party has even pulled away. And by “one party,” we do in fact mean “one party”–the Democrats. This week the Crystal Ball is making 33 changes to its House ratings, some of them major, and others minor. In all but two of those races the changes benefit Democrats. The two districts resisting this week’s Blue tide are Florida’s 16th, home to scandal-plagued Democrat Tim Mahoney, and Kansas’s 2nd, where Nancy Boyda is now facing a tight toss-up race. Let’s look at this week’s changes, with seats currently held by the GOP highlighted in Red and Democrat-held seats in Blue. RATINGS CHANGES District Incumbent PreviousRating New Rating AL-02 OPEN Leans R Toss-up AZ-03 Shadegg Likely R Leans R CA-04 OPEN Likely R Toss-up CA-50 Bilbray Likely R Leans R CT-04 Shays Leans R Leans

Larry J. Sabato Isaac Wood and Paul Wiley

DEMOCRATS ROLL IN U.S. HOUSE RACES

The good news just keeps on coming for Democrats. As we discussed last week, presidential nominee Barack Obama is the clear favorite to win a substantial victory in the race for the White House (see updated Electoral College map, HERE). Democratic Senate candidates are doing so well that the party will add at least six or seven seats to its current narrow majority (see Senate update below and our earlier article from two weeks ago). And the third leg of the 2008 election, the contests for U.S. House of Representatives seats, has also tilted strongly Democratic. Last December, when we first sketched out the upcoming House elections, we suggested that Democrats were likely to have a good year, adding at least half a dozen seats to its total of 236 (with 218 being needed for control of the chamber). When we updated our projections in June 2008, we suggested that up to a dozen new Democratic seats were in the forecast. With the international financial meltdown proceeding apace, and voters increasingly angry and fearful about their families’ economic future, Republicans are suffering disproportionately. Even though Democrats control Congress and were more supportive of the Wall Street bailout/rescue/credit restoration package than

Larry J. Sabato Isaac Wood and Paul Wiley

CONGRESSIONAL COMBAT, CONTINUED

Last December, when we first sketched out the upcoming House elections, we suggested that Democrats were likely to have a good year. Nothing has changed our forecast in the six months since, and if anything, we now see November 2008 as probably the best year Democrats have had in many a moon. Only a solid presidential victory by John McCain that is strong enough to come with coattails attached can change this vision of the next congressional Election Day. We always like to start with a bit of history, so let’s review it again. Truly important election years for the U.S. House of Representatives come around only every so often – years when party control is at stake and the House actually changes hands or the balance of power is significantly altered one way or the other. Since 1970 we have had five of those years: 1974 – The year of Watergate, when Democrats added 48 net House seats and elected 75 freshmen who shook up the House and made life miserable both for senior Democratic legislative barons and Republican President Gerald R. Ford. 1980 – Ronald Reagan’s initial election as President with strong coattails, when the GOP added 33

Larry J. Sabato

CONGRESSIONAL COMBAT

Truly important election years for the U.S. House of Representatives come around only every so often-years when party control is at stake and the House actually changes hands or the balance of power is significantly altered one way or the other. Since 1970 we have had five of those years: 1974 – The year of Watergate, when Democrats added 48 net House seats and elected 75 freshmen who shook up the House and made life miserable both for senior Democratic legislative barons and Republican President Gerald R. Ford. 1980 – Ronald Reagan’s initial election as President with strong coattails, when the GOP added 33 House seats. That was not enough to take over but, when combined with the still-large contingent of Southern Democrats, it gave Reagan strong support for his tax-cut and defense policies. 1982 – In the midst of a serious recession, Democrats won back 26 of the 33 seats they had lost two years earlier. With six years to go as President, Reagan was never able to rule the House roost quite as effectively as in his first two years. 1994 – Forty consecutive years of Democratic control in the House of Representatives came to an end, as

Larry J. Sabato

THE SCANDAL-TINGED SIX:

Last week the Crystal Ball examined fifteen freshman Representatives (fourteen Democrats and one Republican) who we consider to be endangered in November 2008. As promised, now we turn to part two of our list of the imperiled: the “Scandal-tinged Six.” Here, the partisan tables are turned, as five Republicans and one Democrat are in danger of losing their seats because of scandal. Some of the ethical issues involved in these cases have surfaced since the last election in 2006, while others are older but still-developing news. In 2006, scandals came in two main varieties: Abramoff-related and Foley-gate. Several “associates” of lobbyist Jack Abramoff went down to fiery electoral defeats or had to resign to avoid further embarrassment. The voters didn’t quite finish the job, however, and some Representatives on this list represent a “second helping” to vengeful voters who pledge to do a more thorough Housecleaning this time around. Mark Foley’s indiscretions were widely reported during the last election cycle, but ultimately the primary effects of the revelations were limited to his own district. The secondary effects, however, spread nationwide as Republicans couldn’t seem to catch a break throughout the entire autumn campaigning season. This year, the U.S. Attorneys scandal

Isaac Wood and Larry J. Sabato

THE FRESHMAN FIFTEEN

This month, the Crystal Ball has compiled an endangered species list of sorts: members of the House of Representatives who have their work cut out for them if they seek political survival beyond 2008. At this point, we can sort the vulnerable into two stacks: the “Freshman Fifteen” and the “Scandalous Six.” We’ll keep you in suspense by saving the latter for next week. First up, we’re taking a look at congressional newcomers (One Republican and 14 Democrats) who were freshly elected to the House last November and have yet to entrench themselves fully in Washington. Several of them–such as Jerry McNerney of California and Tim Mahoney of Florida–won in districts that would have easily stayed in GOP hands save for the fact that scandal-plagued incumbents mortally wounded themselves. Those unique circumstances won’t be present in 2008, so these kinds of districts are natural pickup opportunities for the other side. The strong anti-GOP waves we witnessed in 2006 may be somewhat tempered by the time of the next slate of elections. So it follows that several freshman Democrats in districts that are essentially toss-ups–or even normally favor Republicans–could be in grave danger if political winds shift. Still, keep this in

Isaac Wood and Larry J. Sabato

OF ASHES AND SASHES

Just as Ben Franklin assured us of two certainties in life, let the Crystal Ball assure you of two certainties in congressional special elections this year: deaths and taxpayer-funded University posts will be the cause (granted, you won’t hear us complaining too much about the latter). We’ll explain in a minute. At the moment, to be perfectly precise, the U.S. House stands at 231 Democrats and 201 Republicans. Of course, as every Politics 101 student can tell you, the House should consist of a total of 435 members (or 437, if the body decides to grant additional representation for Utah and Washington, DC). That can mean only one thing: less than five months into the term of the 110th Congress, three districts have sprouted vacancy signs thanks to unusual developments. And a fourth (maybe even a fifth) vacancy could be on the way. For those of you like we at the Crystal Ball, who cannot wait the one year, five months, and four days–but hey, who’s counting?–until the next regular congressional elections, the special elections created by those vacancies tide us over. Often, these mid-session races are the hardest to predict, because turnout levels can vary wildly. In plenty of

Isaac Wood and Larry J. Sabato

ELECTORAL TRENDS WARM SUNBELT, FREEZE FROSTBELT

Ah, fun with numbers. There’s nothing like it in the field of politics. Usually, we manipulate the numbers of public opinion polls, but this week we’ll crunch some population data instead. Last week the Crystal Ball’s David Wasserman went further than anyone has in projecting out the states’ estimated gains and losses in the U.S. House of Representatives–all the way to 2030. [See this chart.] Some states will record stunning gains over the next three Censuses combined: Florida (+9 House seats), Texas (+8), and Arizona (+5). Other states have modest additions: California (+3), Nevada (+2), North Carolina (+2), and one each for Georgia, Oregon, Utah, Virginia, and Washington. The big losers are New York (-6), Ohio (-4), Pennsylvania (-4), and Illinois (-3). Massachusetts and Michigan both lose 2 House seats, and 12 states lose one House seat: Alabama, Connecticut, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Nebraska, New Jersey, Rhode Island, West Virginia, and Wisconsin. All told, 11 states gain seats at the expense of 18 states that drop House representation. The regional pattern is stark, a continuance of the rise of the Sunbelt and the fall of the Frostbelt that we have seen since the 1960s. The Northeast yields up 15

Larry J. Sabato

WHEN THE LEVEE BREAKS

Because one Crystal Ball analysis piece (We Were Merely Freshmen?) laced with references to popular music deserves another, we decided to take our readers back in time this week and tip our hat to an old blues song Led Zeppelin revived in 1971. The first lines should be familiar to many a Robert Plant die-hard in our readership: “If it keeps on rainin’, levee’s goin’ to break When the levee breaks, I’ll have no place to stay” Certainly, Nancy Pelosi and company had much happier tunes in their heads when they wrested leadership gavels from across the aisle earlier this year. But when the floodgates opened to new majority-making Democratic legislators following the wave of 2006, you can be sure many Republicans left without places to stay were singing the blues. Dazed and confused members of the GOP had never imagined such a powerful storm would wash them out to sea, given all of the structural advantages the party had enjoyed at the outset of 2005. Our friends and fellow prognosticators Charlie Cook and Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report said it well just over a year before last November’s midterm elections: “To use an analogy that we are

David Wasserman

WE WERE MERELY FRESHMEN?

As the Crystal Ball gazes into the future of Congress’s lower chamber beyond 2008, what should it consider? Should we read anything into the moderate success of Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s early leadership? No, the elections are too far away for it to really matter. Forgive us as we turn our attention to popular music for a moment. With apologies to fans of the 1990s alternative rock band The Verve Pipe, we would have to argue that the singular success of their 1997 chart-topper, “The Freshmen,” earned the group residence in history’s musical pantheon of one-hit wonders. The chorus still rings familiar to anyone who tuned into pop radio ten years ago: “For the life of me I cannot remember What made us think that we were wise and We’d never compromise For the life of me I cannot believe We’d ever die for these sins We were merely freshmen” Sure, these were some of last decade’s definitive words of teen angst. So why might they be of any significance to our politics in 2007? We know it’s early, but the Crystal Ball will have you know that an angst-ridden rematch for the House is already underway, and the large class

David Wasserman