2010 Senate

One reason why people are attracted to politics is because, like sports, there are usually clear winners and losers. Moral ambiguity and shades of gray may overwhelm other sectors of life, but not the bottom-line of elections. Only finality on November 2 really matters. Raising more money or winning a primary or seeing your opponent sink into a scandal is a kind of victory, but it’s transient. Still, you savor what you can on your way to Judgment Day. Here’s a sampling of winners and losers from the last week. We could do a list like this every week, and in a way, we do. This time, we’re making it explicit. JAN BREWER—WINNER. The interim unelected Republican governor of Arizona, who succeeded Janet Napolitano when she joined the Obama Cabinet in early 2009, was regarded as weak from the start. Democrats were aghast at her social conservatism, and ambitious Republicans saw her as an easy mark in the 2010 primary. Then she sponsored a sales tax increase of one cent for the next three years to plug the state’s budget holes, and much of the anti-tax GOP base started looking for other candidates. Several pols obliged, and state Treasurer Dean

West Virginia Senate—It is looking very likely that we’ll have a 37th Senate election to noodle about, the extra being held in the Mountain State to choose the successor to the late Senator Robert C. Byrd (D), the longest serving member of Congress in history who passed away on June 28. At first, all indications were that a gubernatorial appointee would fill the seat until November 2012, when Sen. Byrd would have come up for his tenth Senate term. The Secretary of State in West Virginia tentatively ruled so, though West Virginia law is somewhat ambiguous on the point. In the first blush, after Sen. Byrd’s demise, it was generally believed that Democrats would have preferred to have a guaranteed appointee in place for the next two and a half years, without adding yet another contested Senate race to the 2010 roster—especially in a state that has voted Republican for the past three presidential elections. West Virginia might be one more seat to worry about in a bad year for Democrats. On the other hand, an election in 2012 would simply have delayed the day of reckoning. We can assume, barring an Obama reelection landslide, the Republican nominee for president

With just four months to go before the voting in November, many races have settled in—falling into the D or R column as Solid, Likely, or Lean. But then, there are those stubborn toss-ups. Some are unmovable since the primaries haven’t yet been held and the nominees in one or both parties are unknown. Still others haven’t gelled because candidates aren’t spending money or voters are stubbornly refusing to focus on politics in the middle of a hot summer. (How dare they?) A handful of match-ups—some of the best races this year—are nicely balanced on the knife’s edge, so much so that it is easy to imagine circumstances that will tilt them either way. These circumstances include a variety of electoral conditions: Democrats hope that the economy will show more signs of life by September. If it does, some of the toss-ups may edge back toward Democratic incumbents; if it doesn’t, the bad economy could deliver many extra seats to the GOP. If the BP oil gusher is capped, and the beaches are being cleaned and Gulf residents properly compensated, then it’s hard to see how this calamity will matter much at the polls. But if a monster hurricane turns

On Tuesday, political junkies were treated to the latest in a seemingly unending series of primaries. Several critical statewide nominations were determined in North Carolina, South Carolina, and Utah. Our updates, written by the voters more than us, are below. NORTH CAROLINA SENATE: The national political party hierarchies on both sides have had difficulty in this anti-establishment year in selling local activists on all their choices. The Tar Heel State gave us another example on Tuesday in the Democratic runoff for U.S. Senate. For a year, D.C. pooh-bahs have been pushing former state Sen. Cal Cunningham as a telegenic veteran who could take down U.S. Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC) this November. Most of the Democratic top brass enthusiastically agreed with the Cunningham pick. Problem was, Cunningham was seen as too conservative by the actual Democratic voters who showed up in North Carolina’s very low-turnout election. They preferred Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, who finished first in the primary by a considerable margin, 36.4% to Cunningham’s 27.2%. With strong African-American support, Marshall cruised to a crushing victory in Tuesday’s runoff, garnering 60%. Republicans were delighted, and they had been hoping to face Marshall rather than Cunningham. The incumbent Burr, with a

For all our current ratings please see our Crystal Ball website for Senate and Governor. Governor ALABAMA GOVERNOR: The Republican runoff, to be held July 13th, will be between first-place finisher Bradley Byrne and Robert Bentley, who edged Tim James by a handful of votes. It is now obvious that James is not going to pick up enough votes to vault into the runoff. The GOP winner—and it isn’t clear yet whether it will be Byrne or Bentley—is very likely to defeat Democrat Ron Sparks in November. CALIFORNIA GOVERNOR: Meg Whitman (R) has now topped $90 million—ninety million—in spending from her pocketbook, and it’s just mid-June. Her contest with Jerry Brown (D) will be the ultimate test of self-funding’s reach in contemporary politics. Brown is nervous, and should be. FLORIDA GOVERNOR: The Republican nominee ought to be favored, but there’s something about AG Bill McCollum that just doesn’t sell well in the Sunshine State. A two-time statewide loser already, McCollum is no media candidate, and now he’s tied at best in the GOP primary with self-funder Rick Scott. The Democrat, Alex Sink, hasn’t taken off either, and Bud Chiles, son of former Gov. Lawton Chiles (D), will drain some votes

With the biggest primary night of 2010 now over, more and more of the midterm picture is coming into focus. The Crystal Ball brings you the following quick takes from the hottest Senate and Governor primary races that were decided this week: ARKANSAS Senate: In the biggest upset of the June 8th primary night, two-term Sen. Blanche Lincoln narrowly defeated Lt. Gov. Bill Halter in the Democratic Senate runoff. Halter had been backed by a liberal and labor coalition determined to send a message to Blue Dog Democrats who vote a moderate line. But Lincoln had a powerful ally in former President Bill Clinton. Even though Halter had worked for Clinton, Lincoln had Clinton by her side and in her TV ads, and he went after his allies in labor who had targeted Lincoln. So Arkansas’ runoff record is intact: Not since 1942 has the second place finisher in the first primary beaten the candidate who placed first. Still, the Democratic left has made its point to Blue Dogs everywhere. Now the right will probably make its point in November. In this 59% McCain state, the likely next senator is GOP nominee Congressman John Boozman (R). Lincoln has gotten some