2024 House

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The overall battle for House control in 2024 starts as a Toss-up. — Relatively similar numbers of Democratic and Republican seats start in the most competitive Toss-up and Leans categories, although Republicans start with a few more targets in large part because of the likelihood that they will benefit from redistricting in North Carolina and Ohio. — Big blue states California and New York, where Republicans have made key gains over the past couple of cycles, loom large as Democrats plot a path back to the House majority. The House at the starting gate After consecutive election cycles in which the favored side won the House, but by significantly smaller margins than many (including us) expected, we want to be clear from the start how we’re viewing the House this cycle: The race for the majority begins as a Toss-up. While midterms, and not presidential years, much more frequently serve as the engine of change in the House — 10 of the last 12 shifts in power came in midterm cycles — it is also rare for a midterm to produce such a small majority for the winning side as last year’s did. The

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — This article is being published following the adjournment of the House on the afternoon of Wednesday, Jan. 4 after the body failed to elect a speaker on 6 roll call votes held Tuesday and Wednesday. The House was scheduled to return at 8 p.m. eastern on Wednesday. — The 21 Republicans who did not vote for Kevin McCarthy on every roll call generally, but not exclusively, come from uncompetitive districts. They almost all appear to have at least some connection to the House Freedom Caucus, the group of hardline conservatives. — Some recent choices by GOP electorates helped strengthen what would become this anti-McCarthy coalition. — The longer this goes on, the more need there may be for a creative solution, like we saw in Pennsylvania’s state House speaker election on Tuesday. Profiling the McCarthy opposition The U.S. House of Representatives did something on Tuesday that it had not done in a century — go to a second ballot for speaker. Then it went to a third, without resolution. Votes 4, 5, and 6 happened on Wednesday, with almost exactly the same results as those held on Tuesday. No clear resolution is in sight

Dear Readers: The event scheduled for Friday evening featuring law enforcement officers who defended the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021 has been postponed. Keep your eye on this space for more information about this event and other upcoming Center for Politics programs this winter and spring. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The GOP’s House majority begins today with what could be a historic vote — or votes — for Speaker of the House. — Kevin McCarthy and George Santos, the focus of so much recent House coverage, may end up being short-termers as, respectively, Speaker of the House and a member of the House. But it would be hard for either to break records for brevity of service. — Voters in 2022 did what midterm voters often do — put a check on the White House. — But the 2022 verdict was so mixed that the House majority is once again up for grabs in 2024. The House at the dawn of a new GOP majority The pair of biggest developments in the U.S. House over the holiday season prompted us to look at the history books. Our queries were: What is the shortest-ever tenure for