The End of the Line for Red State Senate Democrats
As part of capturing the Senate this year, Republicans at long last knocked out the final remaining Democratic senators from…
The 2024 Senate Undervote: Not High By Historical Standards
The size of this year's "undervote" in Senate races was very similar to what we have seen in other recent…
The House District Results That Tell the Presidential Story
Prior to the election, we identified some key House districts that would tell that would tell the tale of both…
One Week to Go, and Two Contradictory ‘Gut’ Feelings
We find ourselves having a couple of gut feelings about what’s going on in the presidential race. Unfortunately for predictive…
Three Weeks to Go: Has Anybody Seen Our Crystal Ball Anywhere?
The presidential election “vibes” have arguably been positive for Republicans in recent days, but the race is still completely up…
Defining ‘Close’ in the Context of the 2024 Election
Most expect the presidential race to be “close,” but what does that actually mean? The 6 most recent presidential elections provide…
House Rating Change: Key NE-2 Race to Leans Democratic
The balance of the data suggests that Rep. Don Bacon (R, NE-2) should be viewed as a small underdog at…
Five House Rating Changes as Overall Battle for Majority Remains Tight
We are changing 5 House ratings this week, although that does not change our overall arithmetic in the House. We…
What the Polls Say Outside the Key Swing States
Polling in states that are somewhat competitive for president but outside the group of 7 that is likely to decide…
Polling Error in 2016-2020: Look Out for Wisconsin
Final polling did generally overstate Democrats in both the 2016 and 2020 elections in these states, with Wisconsin standing out.…
Montana Senate Race Moves from Toss-up to Leans Republican
The Montana Senate race moves from Toss-up to Leans Republican. This moves means that a majority of Senate seats, 51,…
North Carolina Moves to Toss-up, Setting Up November Battle for Magnificent Seven Swing States
North Carolina moves from Leans Republican to Toss-up in our Electoral College ratings, further emphasizing a focus on 7 key…
Bounces, Favorability, and Third Parties: Three Key Questions as DNC Looms
Last week, the Crystal Ball moved some Electoral College ratings toward the Democrats, solidifying the presidential race as a true…
The House: District by District Slugfest Endures Amidst Top of the Ticket Turmoil
The presidential winner probably will end up winning the House majority too, although the margins in the House are so…
Post-Biden: Harris, the Delegates, the Map, the VP, and More
As Kamala Harris takes over as the likely Democratic nominee, our Electoral College ratings remain the same, at least for…