Notes on the State of Politics: New Jersey Gubernatorial Race Set, Texas Redistricting?
It's Sherrill vs. Ciattarelli in the NJ governor race, and the prospect of a new House map in Texas is…
The House: A Big Sort Lowers the Odds of a Big Wave
Democrats are favored to flip the House, but they are already so close to a majority and the map is…
Notes on the State of the Senate: The Post-Kemp Battlefield
An updated look at the Senate picture following big news in Georgia
The Governors, Part Two: Familiar Battlegrounds Dot 2026 Map, but Watch for Upsets in Open Seats
Many of 2024’s top presidential battlegrounds will feature high-profile gubernatorial elections in 2026. But be on the lookout for upsets…
The House: Democrats Favored on What Starts as a Small Battlefield
History suggested Democrats would be favored to flip the House in 2026 as soon as Donald Trump clinched the presidency…
Three Things That Usually Happen in Midterms
Midterm electorates are smaller, older, and less diverse -- and they often see the non-presidential party improve their share of…
Lessons from History: House Incumbents from the Non-Presidential Party Rarely Lose Reelection in Midterms
The non-presidential party often picks up House seats in midterms, and as a part of it, that party’s incumbents rarely…
Trump’s Approval: Still Positive, but Overperformance with Democratic-Leaning Groups May Be Hard to Maintain
As his second term enters its second month, Donald Trump retains a positive approval rating in polling averages. However, his…
The 2024 Crossover House Seats: Overall Number Remains Low with Few Harris-District Republicans
Just 16 districts voted for one party for president and the other for House, which is the same overall and…
How the Other Half Votes: The Big Counties Versus the Rest of the Country in 2024
In improving his margin in the national popular vote by about 6 points from 2020, Donald Trump ran further ahead…
How the States Vote Relative to the Nation: A 2024 Update
How the states have voted compared to the nation since the 2000 presidential election.
The End of the Line for Red State Senate Democrats
As part of capturing the Senate this year, Republicans at long last knocked out the final remaining Democratic senators from…
The 2024 Senate Undervote: Not High By Historical Standards
The size of this year's "undervote" in Senate races was very similar to what we have seen in other recent…
The House District Results That Tell the Presidential Story
Prior to the election, we identified some key House districts that would tell that would tell the tale of both…
One Week to Go, and Two Contradictory ‘Gut’ Feelings
We find ourselves having a couple of gut feelings about what’s going on in the presidential race. Unfortunately for predictive…