Three Things That Usually Happen in Midterms
Midterm electorates are smaller, older, and less diverse -- and they often see the non-presidential party improve their share of…
Lessons from History: House Incumbents from the Non-Presidential Party Rarely Lose Reelection in Midterms
The non-presidential party often picks up House seats in midterms, and as a part of it, that party’s incumbents rarely…
Trump’s Approval: Still Positive, but Overperformance with Democratic-Leaning Groups May Be Hard to Maintain
As his second term enters its second month, Donald Trump retains a positive approval rating in polling averages. However, his…
The 2024 Crossover House Seats: Overall Number Remains Low with Few Harris-District Republicans
Just 16 districts voted for one party for president and the other for House, which is the same overall and…
How the Other Half Votes: The Big Counties Versus the Rest of the Country in 2024
In improving his margin in the national popular vote by about 6 points from 2020, Donald Trump ran further ahead…
How the States Vote Relative to the Nation: A 2024 Update
How the states have voted compared to the nation since the 2000 presidential election.
The End of the Line for Red State Senate Democrats
As part of capturing the Senate this year, Republicans at long last knocked out the final remaining Democratic senators from…
The 2024 Senate Undervote: Not High By Historical Standards
The size of this year's "undervote" in Senate races was very similar to what we have seen in other recent…
The House District Results That Tell the Presidential Story
Prior to the election, we identified some key House districts that would tell that would tell the tale of both…
One Week to Go, and Two Contradictory ‘Gut’ Feelings
We find ourselves having a couple of gut feelings about what’s going on in the presidential race. Unfortunately for predictive…
Three Weeks to Go: Has Anybody Seen Our Crystal Ball Anywhere?
The presidential election “vibes” have arguably been positive for Republicans in recent days, but the race is still completely up…
Defining ‘Close’ in the Context of the 2024 Election
Most expect the presidential race to be “close,” but what does that actually mean? The 6 most recent presidential elections provide…
House Rating Change: Key NE-2 Race to Leans Democratic
The balance of the data suggests that Rep. Don Bacon (R, NE-2) should be viewed as a small underdog at…
Five House Rating Changes as Overall Battle for Majority Remains Tight
We are changing 5 House ratings this week, although that does not change our overall arithmetic in the House. We…
What the Polls Say Outside the Key Swing States
Polling in states that are somewhat competitive for president but outside the group of 7 that is likely to decide…