Notes on the State of Politics: April 24, 2024
A rating change in Pennsylvania's House races, and some uncertain signals from the finalized California House top-two primary results
Rating Changes: Arizona Senate and AZ-6
We’re making a couple of rating changes today, both in Arizona. The state’s open-seat Senate race goes from Toss-up to…
An Electoral College Time Capsule
The six presidential elections held during the 25-year history of the Center for Politics were often close, although most states…
Seniors for Biden? Looking Into the Polls Among Another Key Subgroup
Some polls have also shown Biden doing unusually well among senior citizens. The oldest voters have generally voted to the…
Notes on the State of Politics: March 28, 2024
In this week’s edition of Notes on the State of Politics, we are extending an invite to several events the…
What Stood Out from Super Tuesday
It turns out that the 2024 presidential primary process will not be historic, at least in this sense: Nikki Haley’s…
Notes on the State of Politics: Feb. 28, 2024
In the days leading up to the Michigan presidential primary, we must admit to being taken a bit aback at…
Big NY-3 Win Brings Democrats Ever Closer in the House
Rep.-elect Tom Suozzi’s (D) impressive victory in NY-3 should, like all special elections, be kept in context: Special elections can…
The Race for the House, Part Two
Following last week’s release of 2023’s fourth quarter campaign fundraising reports, we thought this was a good time to go…
The Race for the House, Part One
With Donald Trump appearing well on his way to a third straight Republican presidential nomination, his lone remaining major rival,…
Trump Clears the New Hampshire Hurdle
On its face, Donald Trump’s performance in the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday night was solid. In a state where…
Big Iowa Win Confirms Trump’s Stranglehold on GOP
There were no real surprises in Iowa on Monday night, as the kickoff contest of the Republican presidential nominating season…
The Presidential Race at the Dawn of a New Year
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Despite bad polling and clear weaknesses for President Biden, we are sticking with our
Notes on the State of Politics: Dec. 13, 2023
Dear Readers: On the latest episode of our Politics is Everything podcast, former Virginia U.S. House Reps. L.F. Payne (D)
The GOP Primary: Lowest-Hanging Fruit Remains Out of Reach for Trump Rivals
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Donald Trump continues to dominate the Republican primary race. — Despite some recent movement