2024 State Races

Dear Readers: In the latest edition of our Politics is Everything podcast, we talk with the author of today’s Crystal Ball piece — Senior Columnist Louis Jacobson — about his article today on “excess seats” in state legislatures as well as his journalism career with PolitiFact, House Republicans’ recently-announced impeachment inquiry into President Biden, and much more. Listen and subscribe here or wherever you get your podcasts. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — We analyzed 48 states to see which have the most lopsided state Senate and state House chambers compared to how the state voted for president. — Both parties have some states in which the legislative breakdown significantly exaggerates the patterns of the presidential vote. — For Democrats, Hawaii, Rhode Island and Massachusetts have the most “excess seats” above the presidential vote threshold. For Republicans, the list is both longer and more varied, with Florida, Ohio, and Wisconsin standing out as at least somewhat competitive states where the Republicans have large excess seat advantages. — In all, Republicans have proven much more adept than Democrats at leveraging presidential vote patterns into even larger majorities in state legislative chambers. The GOP has achieved significant levels of

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The pro-abortion rights/Democratic side won yet another fight related to abortion rights on Tuesday night, this time in red-trending Ohio. — Turnout was robust and likely advantaged the Democratic side. Voter participation was relatively poor across Appalachia, a once-competitive area that has become extremely Republican in recent years. — Issue 1 seemed particularly unpopular in some usually red suburban counties, although we have to remember that ballot issues and partisan races are different and that Republicans are still in a strong position in Ohio. Dissecting Ohio’s Issue 1 There is an old saying that “pigs get fat, but hogs get slaughtered.” It is an apt description for what happened in Ohio’s Issue 1 vote on Tuesday evening. Ohio Republicans, who already dominate state government, asked voters to essentially take away their own power by raising the threshold for voters to approve statewide constitutional amendment ballot measures from a bare 50% majority to a 60% supermajority. The proposal also would have made the signature-gathering process much more difficult in order to place such amendments in front of voters. The whole point of this process was to erect an impassable barrier in front of a looming constitutional

Dear Readers: In the latest edition of our Politics is Everything podcast, the Crystal Ball’s J. Miles Coleman, Kyle Kondik, and Carah Ong Whaley discuss the results from Tuesday night’s Virginia state legislative primaries and look ahead to the closely-contested battle for control of both chambers coming up this fall. Listen and subscribe here or wherever you get your podcasts. In today’s Crystal Ball, Senior Columnist Louis Jacobson previews another set of key state-level races for this year and next: attorneys general and secretaries of state. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The once low-profile contests for attorney general and secretary of state have become increasingly important for driving policy outcomes in the states, particularly in setting the rules for how elections are run. — The current campaign cycle doesn’t promise quite as much drama as there was in 2022, when several key presidential battleground states played host to tight contests between Republicans aligned with former President Donald Trump and more mainstream Democrats. — For the current 2023-2024 cycle, we are starting our handicapping by assigning 18 of the 23 races to either the Safe Republican or the Safe Democratic category. Still, a number of these states

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The percentage of women in state legislatures has increased in recent years. However, there is still a significant gender gap in most states as women have not reached parity in representation. — The majority of women in state legislatures are Democrats. While more Republican women ran for office in 2022 than in previous years, that didn’t amount to closing the gender gap in representation. — The percentage of women in state legislatures has increased more in Western and Northeastern states than in Midwestern and Southern states. This is likely due to a number of factors, including the political climate, the level of motivation and activism among women, and the availability of resources for women’s campaigns. Changes in legislatures In a special election on May 16, Democrats maintained a narrow majority in the Pennsylvania House of Delegates. As a result, the party will be able to continue to exert control over how the lower chamber of the state legislature will handle reproductive, gun, and voting rights legislation. With Republicans still holding the Pennsylvania Senate, the House could also provide an assist to Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro in budget negotiations. In House District 163, Democratic candidate

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The fate of Wisconsin’s state supreme court will be decided next month. — About two-thirds of the states will have supreme court elections next year. — Key states with supreme court elections to watch in 2024 include Kentucky, Michigan, Montana, North Carolina, and Ohio. The 2024 high court races A high-stakes state supreme court election that will determine the ideological control of the Wisconsin Supreme Court is set to take place on April 4. The contest between liberal judge Janet Protasiewicz and conservative candidate Daniel Kelly, who was involved in the state GOP’s “fake elector” scheme after the 2020 presidential election, is on track to become the most expensive judicial race in history. Another key swing state, Pennsylvania, also has a state supreme court race this year to fill a currently-vacant seat previously held by late Chief Justice Max Baer, a Democrat. Democrats still have a 4-2 edge on the court, so they would retain the majority even if Republicans win the seat later this year. With growing attention being given to the role of state courts in determining political representation and other key issues, we look ahead to state supreme court elections in