Rating Changes: Pushing House Toss-ups, Nebraska Senate to Leans Republican
We are pushing a few House Toss-ups out of that category this week, leaving revised ratings that show 212 House…
The Senate: Republicans Measure Majority in Midwest as Democrats Seek Targets
Republicans remain on track to win at least 51 Senate seats in November, which would allow them to take control…
Rating Changes: Nebraska and North Carolina
The single electoral vote in NE-2 moves to Likely Democratic, and the state's Senate race moves to Likely Republican. We…
Notes on the State of Debates and Primaries
a few takeaways from last night’s presidential debate, a tally of incumbent success in U.S. House primaries this year, and…
The Race for the Senate: Democrats Still in the Game, but Republicans Have the Upper Hand
We continue to expect Republicans to flip the Senate this year, given the huge level of Democratic exposure.
Harris’s VP Choice: Her Options, and the Possible Home State Effects
Next week, Vice President Kamala Harris is set to announce her running mate, with the leading contenders for the job…
If Biden Stays: A Glimpse into a Grim Electoral Future for Democrats
While public polling has not necessarily shifted dramatically in the three weeks since the first debate, the numbers have generally…
In Key Ohio Senate Primary, Republicans Go with Trump Again
We take a look at the ultimately not-close Ohio Republican Senate primary and other key results from the down-ballot primaries…
Notes on the State of Politics: March 13, 2024
In this week’s edition of Notes on the State of Politics, we’re looking down the ballot—both at the overall House…
Previewing the Iowa Caucus
There is an old saying that there are “three tickets out of Iowa,” meaning that the traditional kickoff caucus doesn’t…
Elections 2023: Democrats Enjoy a Strong Night
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Democrats won five of the six key races we were watching in Tuesday night’s
Notes on the State of Politics: Sept. 13, 2023
Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections
Ohio’s Issue 1 Smackdown
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The pro-abortion rights/Democratic side won yet another fight related to abortion rights on Tuesday
Notes on the State of Politics: July 27, 2023
Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections
The Dwindling Crossover Governorships
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Despite an increasing correlation between presidential and down-ballot results, there are still nine governors