Skip links

History

Sabato's Crystal Ball

1964 Presidential Election

After his smooth transition to the oval office, it was understood that the Democratic nomination would be handed to President Johnson. The only objection to be heard was Gov. Wallace of Alabama whose “segregationist campaign took advantage of a backlash against the civil rights movement.” He did run against Johnson in three primaries, but after defeat and rumor about running as a third party, decided to drop out of the race. The Republicans juggled between two nominees: Sen. Barry Goldwater of Arizona and Gov. Nelson Rockefeller of New York. Since the nomination process was in the midst of change, the system allowed candidates to pick and choose the primaries to best correspond with their political strategy. Goldwater won strong support in the south and Midwest, but his definitive victory over Rockefeller was his triumph in California. Goldwater was a staunch conservative; Johnson a moderate liberal. Goldwater campaigned vigorously against remaining New Deal policies and proposed a stronger military. The “choice not an echo” that Goldwater offered was indeed a moral crusade. Not all Republicans were as conservative or as right as Goldwater exhibited, thus many party leaders were divided to the Democrats delight. Johnson’s campaign preyed upon Goldwater’s blunders, especially

UVA Center for Politics

1960 Presidential Election

In 1958, Democratic seizure of American politics tightened its grip. With 64 Senate seats, 283 House seats, and 35 states with Democratic governors, the environment for active policy and social change ripened. For the 1960 election, Sens. John F. Kennedy, Lyndon Johnson, and Hubert Humphrey raced for the Democratic nomination. Kennedy was from a wealthy and well-known family, but had a short political experience and was Catholic. Johnson had a distinguished career in public policy as majority leader, but a Southerner had not been elected since James K. Polk in 1844. Humphrey had popularity in the West appealing to the strong liberal vote, but had little financial support. John Kennedy’s candidacy sparked the public’s fascination; he was young and charming, the son of a millionaire, Harvard graduate, a “war hero,” and Pulitzer Prize winner. However, his young age of 43 also played to his critics favor, and his Catholicism was scorned at. After outspending his competitors and winning the public’s affection, JFK received the nomination. He balanced his ticket with Lyndon Johnson, making the Yankee-Southerner, Catholic-Protestant alliance. Richard Nixon was the supreme choice of the Republican party, and no one posed any real threat of him receiving the nomination. The

UVA Center for Politics

1956 Presidential Election

President Eisenhower was immediately renominated for president despite health concerns and his age of 66, he was the strong favorite of the Republicans and held a good standing with the public due to a booming economy. The choice of running with Nixon again was somewhat controversial, but his confidence in the vice president held strong. In the Democratic primary, Kefauver challenged Adlai Stevenson, the nominee from 1952. Kefauver won sizeable victories in New Hampshire and Minnesota, but Stevenson battled back with a long list of primary wins in larger states like California and Florida. With the additional endorsement of Eleanor Roosevelt, Stevenson won the Democratic nomination for the second time in a row. Kefauver eventually became Stevenson’s running mate. The election of 1956 failed to have any substantial debates or real issues of concern. Eisenhower had an expanding economy to back him up, a war brought quickly to the end, and with highways and increased housing, he had almost created the “middle-class dream.” The vice president handled attacking the opposition, jesting that he was complacent and even communist. James David Barber calls this kind of campaign “the politics of conciliation,” with little conflict or desire for change. Eisenhower decisively won

UVA Center for Politics