Tweets of the Week

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here. 4:50 PM Jan 27th POTUS run for Mike Pence was long-shot at best. He’ll be instant frontrunner for IN GOV ’12. 8:46 PM Jan 27th: R POTUS ’12: Pence is out, Palin may not run, Bachmann may be non-starter. Is this why DeMint may have DeBug? 12:38 PM Jan 28th: Everyone needs to focus on new CBO #s: 2011’s net interest payment on debt=awful $225b. By 2021, w/no changes in policy,disastrous $792b. 12:43 PM Jan 28th: $792b will be larger than ALL non-defense discretionary $. It’s ruinous. Hello, Chinese Century. Unless we act & all accept pain. 12:22 PM Jan 29th: Slipped on ice last night. Out of commission. Meds in control. Strange political dreams. And SpongeBob makes sense. 11:14 AM Jan 31st: COS Daley’s “Manchurian Candidate” label=perfect insult. Combines 3 R base fears about Huntsman: Obama, Mormonism, liberalism 2:38 PM Jan 31st: Marco Rubio(R-FL)

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here. 11:41 AM Jan 20th: Baby boomer obsession w/JFK in full view today. This boomer is writing 2013 book on JFK’s legacy & why the public (boomers?) won’t let go. 11:43 AM Jan 20th: For my Bloomsbury book, Peter Hart & Geoff Garin will conduct large-sample polls & focus groups around nation on JFK–all generations. 2:00 PM Jan 24th: Welcoming US Sen. Susan Collins(R-ME) to my 101 class today. Yes, she’s joining bipartisan civil-in at SOTU. 9:38 PM Jan 24th: My dream SOTU: Obama opens,”Sober address & u r all busy. So save applause for end.” Time cut in half. Public swoons. Productivity soars. 11:33 AM Jan 25th: Delighted to announce today’s release of PENDULUM SWING, first book on 2010 elections. Pls give a look! http://amzn.to/hdzHpZ 11:37 AM Jan 25th: PENDULUM SWING: Authors & publisher worked hard to cut lead time in half. One of earliest

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here. 10:16 AM Jan 13th: Now off to Dallas for several days of research into the original Tucson of American nightmares (11/22/63) for book on JFK’s legacy at 50 yrs 10:55 AM Jan 13th: x-Gov. Edwin Edwards(D-LA) out of jail. Saddest slogan of all time in 1991:”Vote for the crook. It’s important.” Helped him beat David Duke 10:58 AM Jan 13th: Loughner’s smirk reminds me of Oswald’s–cited by Jack Ruby to explain why he shot him on 11/24/63. But Loughner=psychotic, Oswald=sociopath 12:11 PM Jan 13th: For Obama, a 1% decline in unemployment will = 100 Tucson speeches. Some are assigning far too much long-term import to POTUS talk. 2:11 PM Jan 13th: No surprise–Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison(R-TX) retires. Texas-sized, big spending R primary, no clear frontrunner yet. 2:12 PM Jan 13th: Real question in Texas SEN is whether Dems, landslide losers of late, can even compete.

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here. 2:36 PM Dec 23rd: Take heart,10 states losing House seats. Checked 1789-2010: 35 states lost seats sometime,14 REGAINED seats. Pop. patterns can change. 8:17 PM Dec 25th: A gorgeous white Christmas on Mr. Jefferson’s Lawn…Just heard sleighbells in the snow. 12:54 PM Dec 28th: Bold Economic Prediction for 2011: Stock markets will gyrate wildly, up & down, often with no clear explanation except “profit taking”. 4:20 PM Dec 28th: Bold Political Prediction for 2011: I forsee special elections. They will be dramatically over-reported and massively over-interpreted. 12:13 PM Dec 31st: At midnite we begin 2nd decade of 21st c. Didn’t happen 1/1/10. No Year Zero. Happy & healthy new decade to all. 12:15 PM Jan. 4th: Crunching #s on Congress: 242 Rs in House is 7th largest in history, most since 1947(246). Biggest ever: 300 Rs elected w/Harding(1920) 12:27 PM Jan. 4th Take all Senates

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here. 8:41 AM Dec 17th: Disappointed that ‘best quotes of ’10’ lists have left out: “The rent is too damn high.” An elegant, inarguable statement of fact. 9:28 AM Dec 17th: On paper Ds need to pick up +25 House seats to regain control in 2012. But this ignores effects of reapportionment/redistricting. 9:32 AM Dec 17th: Census #s (Tu) will show net gain from Blue to Red states. Big R gains in ’10 mean Rs control redrawing 195 House districts to Ds 49. 9:38 AM Dec 17th: Complicated calculus, different in each state, but more weak Rs will be strengthened than weak Ds, more new R districts than D created. 9:39 AM Dec 17th: Conclusion: +25 D is a mirage. 11:34 AM Dec 19th: Of 8 Rs backing DADT, 6 predictable. Surprises: Ensign(NV) & Burr(NC). Ensign’s scandal partial explanation. Burr just reelected handily. 11:36 AM Dec

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here. 6:21 PM Dec 9th: Sen. Joe Manchin(D-WV) plans to take no chances for his ’12 reelection. He was only D to vote against ‘don’t ask, don’t tell’ repeal. 1:08 PM Dec 10th: New polls on tax deal & deficit: Nothing’s changed. Americans still enthusiastic about ‘hot fudge sundae diet’–no pain, all poundage gain. 7:49 PM Dec 12th: Excellent ’60 Mins’ on Boehner. Had no idea he cried so much. Unusual for man his age. Most of us male boomers were taught never to do it. 7:53 PM Dec 12th: I still recall my father’s disappointment when I fell off my bicycle & cried. I was 5 or 6. Only saw Dad tear up 2X in his life & no crying. 7:55 PM Dec 12th: Wonder how, if at all, Boehner’s propensity to cry will play politically. Many older men won’t like it. Many women will,

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here. 11:04 AM Dec 3rd: “Unemployment Jumps to 9.8%, Jobs Projection Wrong by 100,000”. To err is human; to get paid for it, you have to be an economist. 2:00 PM Dec 3rd: Questions: How do so many votes go unreported election night? Why do full counts (not recounts) in places like NY & CA take so damn long? 10:33 AM Dec 6th: It’s official. With 28 freshmen (inc. ND & WV), 2010 has produced more new state Governors than any year since at least 1900. #2=1920 (27). 9:17 PM Dec 7th: Across spectrum, people sense that the ground has shifted with Obama-GOP tax deal. But is it an aftershock from 11/2 or a new earthquake? 9:21 PM Dec 7th: If Obama is already reshaping his landscape, he’s way ahead of Truman & Clinton. Post-midterm shocks, they regained footing after 6 months. 9:25 PM Dec 7th:

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here. 8:27 AM Nov 13th: One key to Murky’s now-inevitable AK victory: McAdams(D) fell to low 20s. Some Ds clearly voted LisaM to stop Miller. Turnout 50%, as in ’06 10:08 PM Nov 16th: The earmark is dead. Long live letters from senior legislators to federal agencies endorsing key projects. 10:12 PM Nov 16th: Who funds agencies? Congress. Where do approps bills originate? House. Who places holds on appointees to get a point across? Senate. 10:13 PM Nov 16th: There’s more than one way to skin a pig. 10:50 AM Nov 17th: Eric Cantor now 1st Jewish House Majority Ldr. Finally joined by another Jewish R in House if Randy Altschuler’s 356 vote lead in NY-1 holds 10:54 AM Nov 17th: Joe Scarborough & Mike Bloomberg mulling ’12 Ind ticket. MSNBC host+liberal NYC mayor. Gee, wonder if they’ll hurt Obama or R nominee more? 10:55 AM

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here. 10:19 PM Oct 15th: Last couple of campaign weeks more deceptive than revealing. Too much partisan spinning, second-guessing, wild speculation. 10:20 PM Oct 15th: A small proportion of contests really do flip at the end. For all the others, we’re better off sticking to our original projections. 10:25 PM Oct 15th: Nice break tomorrow. Homecomings @UVA. Get to see some of 15,000 students I’ve taught, plus classmates ’70-’74, plus older alums. 10:26 PM Oct 15th: After 40 yrs here, I’m like a stick of old furniture–frayed but comfortable. Destined to be thrown out one day, of course–as it should be. 8:25 AM Oct 18th: Polyscientists & journalists differ. My field looks to fundamental, fairly stable factors to project elections, so we can do so early. 8:26 AM Oct 18th: Journalists and journalistic analysts think elections are all about tactics, TV ads, $$$, and day-to-day events

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here. 8:18 AM Oct 8th: Year of the Independent? Think again. With Lincoln Chafee’s decline in RI, the last reasonable shot for an I victory for Governor disappears 8:20 AM Oct 8th: Independents, once highly touted, in CO, ME, MA, and MN will all lose. Then there’s Charlie Crist going down for Senate. 8:22 AM Oct 8th: Only Lisa Murkowski has a decent chance, and she’s running as a Republican write in who’ll stay in the R Senate caucus IF she wins. 8:24 AM Oct 8th: Anti-establishment does not mean anti-two party system. Plus ca change…2010 not so different after all. 10:11 AM Oct 8th: Jobless numbers ice a baked, cooled election cake. 6:08 PM Oct 10th: How do people like Ohio’s Iott–who no longer has an Iota of a chance to win–make it almost to the finish line? We can’t get best to run. 6:11

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here. 1:15 PM Oct 2nd: Some GOP leaders need a refresher course in basic campaign strategy. Predicting R House pickups of +60, +80, +100 is just plain dumb. 1:17 PM Oct 2nd: (1) It isn’t going to happen;(2) It induces overconfidence;(3) If Rs win a narrow majority or just fall short, big gains look like a loss. 1:18 PM Oct 2nd: You’d think after all this time, people would’ve caught onto the polling game & wouldn’t take polls so seriously. And you’d be wrong. 1:19 PM Oct 2nd: Let me word the questions, pick the sample, & interpret the results, and I’ll get you any answers you want. 1:58 PM Oct 3rd: Finally, cold AK & hot FL have something in common: A “centrist” independent Senate candidate getting squeezed between R & D 1:59 PM Oct 3rd: Don’t be surprised if they end up the same

This week, the Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week takes a special look back at the highlights of the busy week in politics from the perspectives of University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato and Crystal Ball House Race Editor Isaac Wood. @IsaacWood on 11:08 AM Sep 10th: NRCC’s 11 district ad blitz–TOSS-UPS: AL-02 AZ-01 FL-02 TX-17 VA-05 WI-07 LEANS D: CA-11 IN-02 KY-06 LEANS R: MS-01 TN-08 @IsaacWood on 11:10 AM Sep 10th: Of the 11 districts NRCC targeting, just 2 are open seats. Seem confident about open seat wins. Gunning for incumbents. @IsaacWood on 11:59 AM Sep 10th: 2 interpretations of NRCC ads: Targeting incumbents b/c confident in open seats OR worried by incumbents’ cash advantage. @LarrySabato on 10:19 PM Sep 10th: 538 blog at New York Times, today’s prediction: +45-50 R seats in House. Crystal Ball prediction from 9/2: +47 R. Good to have company. @LarrySabato on 10:22 PM Sep 10th: All predicts must be refined as election day approaches. Overall conditions & individual districts can change a bit. But ’10 direction clear @LarrySabato on 10:35 PM Sep 10th: Top 3 competitive contests on 9/14 (blessedly, last major ’10 primary day):

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here. 8:49 PM Sep 5th: We always overdo comparisons between elections. They’re all unique. 2010 is being widely compared to 3 recent midterms: 1982, 1994, 2006. 8:53 PM Sep 5th: Link ’94 & ’06: until Oct, most Ds & Rs didn’t believe House could switch. This helped out-party. Not enuf time for in-party to react. 8:55 PM Sep 5th: But in ’10, Dems have twice the notice. Can time + more $ give Ds chance to shave a dozen seats from Rs & save House? Or is cake too baked? 9:30 AM Sep 6th: Many queries: Could Ds focus $$$ on enuf seats to pull back +47R to, say, mid-30sR and keep control. Possible. Also possible +R could go up 9:33 AM Sep 6th: Fallback D position: Keep House close. If Ds lose House in ’10, a better economy & resurgent Obama could coattail Ds back

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here. 12:52 PM Aug 19th: Rasmussen poll: http://tinyurl.com/RR1924 Just 22% think members of Congress care what constituents think. Accurate poll but ppl are wrong. 12:56 PM Aug 19th: This is cynicism run amok. Pols need voters more than money or lobbyists to win. $$ & lobbyists are MEANS to end. Voters ARE the end. 12:59 PM Aug 19th: If I hear 1 more person scream at a Rep., “I’m your boss!”, I’ll scream louder. Friends, each of us is 1/700,000th the boss of a congressman 1:01 PM Aug 19th: The bosses only come together to issue orders once every 2 yrs for House, 6 yrs for SEN. Then pol is our delegate/trustee til next election. 11:50 PM Aug 19th: When history of 2010 campaign is written, today will be worth noting. New economic #s nearly guarantee bad (worse?) jobless rate thru 11/2. 11:52 PM Aug 19th:

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here. 12:20 PM Aug 17th: 2010 “X” Factor: Shortest possible general election. Late Labor Day (9/6) + early Election Day (11/2) = just 58 days, 1 wk less than some. 11:24 AM Aug 17th: A week can matter in close races. If ’68 POTUS race had gone on a wk more, HHH might have beaten Nixon. Same for Ford over Carter in ’76. 11:25 AM Aug 17th: Trends were less clear in 1960 JFK-Nixon and 2000 Bush-Gore, but with another week, who could say? 11:30 AM Aug 17th: Short ’10 election means: candidate sprint + few local TV slots for non-political adverts + sped-up news cycle + daily spending orgy + … 10:22 AM Aug 18th: Just for UVA tweeps: Look closely at new U.S. News college rankings. Stop the happy talk. Disturbing trends. UVA at top of public U’s but… 10:25 AM Aug 18th: We’ve