Tweets of the Week

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here. 8:01 PM Aug 5th: TN GOV on script tonight. As expected Bill Haslam(R) wins, faces Mike McWherter(D). Haslam will be next GOV, 1 of 3-4 most likely R pickups. 8:03 PM Aug 5th: As usual, next GOP GOV corps will have a lot more moderates in it than congressional R caucus. Haslam(R-TN) & Snyder(R-MI) good examples. 9:10 PM Aug 7th: So much psychological drama associated with one’s birthday. Another example of the tyranny of numbers. Age should be an unlisted number. 11:16 AM Aug 8th: Timing is everything in sex & politics. R Paul(KY), D Coats(IN) & D Vitter(LA) probably would have lost in ’06. GOP wave of ’10=SEN win. 5:08 PM Aug 8th: Almost everyone alive in ’74 remembers this was the day Nixon announced his resignation–exactly 6 yrs after he won the ’68 GOP nomination. 5:11 PM Aug 8th: 3rd Nixon connection to

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here. 9:28 AM Jul 31st: Sometimes I think when smart candidates file for office, they are issued a year’s worth of stupid pills. Would explain gaffes. 9:31 AM Jul 31st: It’ll take a lot more than a ‘no’ on Kagan to reelect Ben Nelson(D-NE) if Gov. Dave Heineman(R) runs against Nelson in ’12. 9:38 AM Jul 31st: Just because something is in the headlines (Rangel/Waters) doesn’t mean it becomes electorally significant. Economy is black hole of ’10. 10:37 AM Aug 2nd: For such an anti-establishment year, there are surprisingly few independents with any real chance to win or even affect SEN & GOV races. 10:40 AM Aug 2nd: For SEN: Only Crist (FL). For GOV: Tom Tancredo(CO), Bud Chiles(FL), Eliot Cutler(ME),Tim Cahill(MA), Tom Horner(MN), Lincoln Chafee(RI). 10:51 AM Aug 2nd: Think conspiracy theories began w/JFK? Today in 1923 Pres. Harding died in SF. Prob heart attack,

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here. 11:03 AM Jul 25th: 100 (long) days to go until Nov. 2. Overall drift seems clear–substantial R gains top to bottom. But CW is often wrong on individual races. 11:05 AM Jul 25th: Scandal, other events intervene. Most recent example: who could have forseen McInnis plagiarism in CO GOV? 8:55 AM Jul 26th: New Mason-Dixon confirms Crystal Ball’s early decision to tip Senate seat R. Roy Blunt(R) leads Robin Carnahan(D) by 6%. Bond seat stays R. 8:57 AM Jul 26th: Other than GOV disaster in CO, GOP may face greatest challenge in FL, where party rifts now endanger both GOV & SEN seats. Early yet. 12:32 PM Jul 26th: FDR ran against Hoover over & over. It worked. Reagan & Bush41 did same against Carter. Mainly worked. Can Obama run against Dubya again? 12:33 PM Jul 26th: Easy prediction: My D tweeps will say YES!

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here. 9:29 AM Jul 15th: New attack line for all 2010 candidates: “My opponent is as incompetent as Mel Gibson’s therapist!” 10:06 AM Jul 16th: Who the hell is Carte Goodwin? Well, 4 1 thing, the next U.S. senator from WV. 36 y.o. Manchin ex-aide. Only in ’til Nov. Safe boring choice 10:07 AM Jul 16th: Only real requirement for appointee: be totally loyal to Manchin, make no waves to interfere w/Manchin election. Sets Goodwin up for future. 10:09 AM Jul 16th: There are worse things than to be an ex-U.S. senator at 36. Permanent floor privileges & other perks. Sycophants call you ‘senator’ for life 10:29 AM Jul 16th: CA friend called to laugh about coverage of DC’s measly 3.6 quake.Says he: “Proves that Beltway thinks anything that happens there is big.” 9:14 PM Jul 16th: Many of my tweeps enjoy the coincidences of history,

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here. 9:47 PM Jul 8th: Now I understand the true meaning of Nixon’s “Silent Majority”. We’re the 80% that cares less about where LeBron plays. 5:20 PM Jul 9th: 160th anniversary of the death of Pres. Zachary Taylor.Supposedly he died after combination of heat on July 4 plus cold milk/cherries=gastro 5:21 PM Jul 9th: Body was dug up in 1991 to test for arsenic. Was some, not enough to kill. But some allege sloppy job. Taylor had upset South, had enemies. 5:27 PM Jul 9th: Taylor death/murder? raises questions about history. How much of what we’re taught is real, how much repeated fantasy? Be honest–it’s both. 5:39 PM Jul 9th: Gallup Poll just called me (it’s real, I checked #). Interviewer hung up! Hey, call back. I’ve always wanted to see how you all REALLY do it 5:52 PM Jul 9th: Target dates for ’12 nominations

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here. 10:39 AM Jul 1st: Left searching for ’12 D primary opponent for Sen. Ben Nelson(D-NE). If Gov. Dave Heineman(R) is GOP SEN nominee, D choice prob won’t matter 10:40 AM Jul 1st: Politically, 3 of DNC choices for ’12 convo make sense, in this order: Charlotte, St. Louis, Cleveland. Minneapolis, far less so. 10:42 AM Jul 1st: Tough for Sept. convo to have any real effect on Nov. vote. But NC so close in ’08, if ’12 is similar, Obama might get slight boost from CLT 10:44 AM Jul 1st: Same argument for MO, though state is tougher for Obama overall. Big Ohio less likely to be influenced by convo. MN=guaranteed D anyway 9:49 PM Jul 2nd: Michael Steele now faces his biggest challenge in holding onto RNC Chair. Afghan comments yield resign calls from Kristol, Erickson, NR, etc 10:00 PM Jul 2nd: TJ made

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here. 9:27 AM Jun 24th: Another nation has woman leader: Australia’s PM Julia Gillard. Ruthless Labor coup takes down PM Kevin Rudd. Aussie politics mean as USA. 9:56 PM Jun 24th: Good to be back online. Wild day in Charlottesville. Severe microbursts & unconfirmed tornado, damage to UVA & town. News vacuum hurts. 9:57 PM Jun 24th: Even parts of Jefferson’s Serpentine wall off Lawn crumbled as trees fell right & left. Never seen anything like it. TJ’s Lawn littered. 9:37 AM Jun 27th: Kagan hearings: Goal of Dems, to bore you. Goal of GOP, to alarm you. Boring S.Ct. hearings always a good bet these days. 9:40 AM Jun 27th: After tons of primary TV ads: Few positive spots vs. tough negatives that match public’s sour mood. “Lesser of evils” strategy apparent. 7:00 PM Jun 28th: As predicted here last night, election for Byrd seat

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here. 3:06 PM Jun 23rd: Media have toned down “anti-incumbent fever” theme. Here’s why. As of today, 5 members of Congress have lost but 240 re-nominated (98%). 1:32 PM Jun 23rd: Obama was generous in praise of McChrystal, made smart choice in Petraeus, & put emphasis on winning Afghan war. 100% better than BP speech. 1:38 PM Jun 22nd: Msg from student: “I knew u were old, had no idea how old. What was Jefferson really like?” I will not ID u, but wish I could re-grade u 1:24 PM Jun 22nd: Harry Truman: “If there is one basic element in our Constitution, it is civilian control of the military.” 10:27 AM Jun 22nd: Founders understood need for civilian control of military, given classical history. See Geo. Washington farewell address (& Ike’s too). 9:05 AM Jun 22nd: McChrystal was lucky his comments weren’t on videotape. YouTube

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here. 4:07 PM Jun 10th: At UVA, we commemorate 70th anniversary of FDR’s famous “Stab-in-the-back” speech here, 6/10/40. Moved USA closer to WWII entry. 8:14 AM Jun 14th: Why would any R bother to booby-trap SC’s D Senate primary when Sen. Jim DeMint (R) was assured reelection against any D? Makes no sense. 8:17 AM Jun 14th: Maybe force of habit? Watergate wasn’t necessary in ’72. Palmetto State’s new motto: “The Nation’s Dirtiest Politics”. Take that, Chicago! 9:16 AM Jun 15th: Blumenthal(D-CT) & Kirk(R-IL) have new, outrageous company on the war front. http://onion.com/9BgThv 11:42 PM Jun 15th: In the age of multi-platform instant analysis, everything possible is said about an Oval Office address inside an hour. 11:45 PM Jun 15th: This wasn’t one for the ages. Few are. A smile is just a smile & a speech is just a speech. Same problems await as Oval

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here. 10:11 AM Jun 4th: Apparently, no one has ever told Mark Kirk that when you’re in a deep hole, you need to stop digging. Umpire Jim Joyce showed how to do it. 10:24 AM Jun 4th: Mark Kirk reminds me of some students I’ve taught. They give six separate excuses for bad behavior when one heartfelt apology will do. 9:08 AM Jun 7th: On Congress incumbent defeats: There will be plenty of them, but not in the primaries. That’s what November is for. 8:36 AM Jun 8th: One good question: Will there be an Artur Davis this evening–someone who was supposed to win but loses? Be honest: You love the car crashes 9:50 AM Jun 8th: When/if Sen. Lincoln(D-AR) loses, media will bombard you with simplistic stat–3 senators down in primaries, most since 1980, feeds theme. 9:51 AM Jun 8th: Remember a much better stat.

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here. 9:31 AM May 27th: A datum here & there can really grab you. From new CBS poll: Only 9% think “Most members of Congress deserve reelection”; 82% want “new ppl” 9:33 AM May 27th: Remember, though, that most voters separate THEIR member from “all those others”. General condemnation does not = slaughter of incumbents. 9:35 AM May 27th: 1 more from CBS: After all the pub, just 27% know enough to have any real opinion about E Kagan. We always overestimate how much ppl care. 9:53 PM May 29th: Imagine 2 for lunch, Senate Dining Rm: Blumenthal talks about his nonexistent Vietnam service while Kirk shows off his nonexistent medal. 12:08 AM May 30th: Attn pols who lie about military record. Follow Cadet Mahoney’s ex in Police Academy: “I served but not in this lifetime.” Can’t be checked. 9:04 PM May 30th: Smart move by

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here. 12:33 PM May 20th: I’ve been saying for weeks that it was 50-50 whether Rand Paul would win by a mile in Nov. or blow the election. More evidence last night. 4:44 PM May 21st: Every now & then I see a candidate who’d be more secure electorally if he’d be convinced to spend campaign season in Bermuda. Yep, you, Rand 6:03 PM May 21st: Another graduation weekend here at UVA. I don’t remember all 40 since I showed up in Charlottesville, but quite a few. So many stories. 6:05 PM May 21st: Lady Bird Johnson subbed for her recently deceased husband, the mike went dead for VP GHW Bush (“Can someone fix this damn thing?” he said) 6:10 PM May 21st: Christopher Reeve, Arthur Ashe & more, since departed. Day is about parents(Tuition Liberation Day) & students(End of Life as They Know It). 9:02

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here. 10:33 AM May 14th: Now gone all the way back to 1920s & can find only 5 D SEN runoffs in AR. Just 1 (1942) had 1st-primary loser winning runoff, as I noted Th. 12:19 PM May 14th: New Obama lines about the GOP driving the car into the ditch–which we’ll hear over & over this year–are remarkably similar to Ike ad ’52. 12:20 PM May 14th: Eisenhower on Dems: “If the driver of your school bus runs into a truck, hits a lamppost, drives into a ditch…you get a new bus driver.” 12:24 PM May 14th: Just an amusing coincidence. But it does show how party roles reverse with regularity. 1:46 PM May 14th: PA-12 (Murtha special): A key fact NOT mentioned often enough–This was the ONLY CD in America to switch from Kerry ’04 to McCain ’08. 2:02 PM May 17th: Two brothers

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here. 10:46 AM May 7th: A fascinating drama & dance is unfolding in London. Who will govern? How much stability? Can govt confront fiscal crisis or not? All TBD. 1:05 PM May 7th: UK used to have enormous voter turnouts, far above USA in prez yrs. But yesterday turnout was 65%. US turnout ’08 = 62%. Not much different. 4:20 PM May 8th: Remarkable: Sen. Bob Bennett (R-UT) has reportedly been unable to get 40% at the R convention to secure a place on the GOP primary ballot. 4:23 PM May 8th: The Tea Party & allies haven’t yet beaten a single D. But they’ve taken out two Rs–House candidate in NY-23 last Nov. plus Bennett now. 4:25 PM May 8th: Bennett can’t file as an Independent, only run as a write-in. Very tough to win that way. Utah grassroots will be strongly R in 2010.

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here. 4:03 PM Apr 29th: Overall, I think the UK debates were magnificent. They weren’t Lincoln-Douglas, but L & D didn’t have to go before millions on TV. 4:04 PM Apr 29th: Having recently reviewed the tapes of Kennedy-Nixon ’60, I’d put the UK three well above the stilted level of those original TV battles. 5:08 PM Apr 29th: All the pols in both parties tell us the system is broken, but they’ve personally had nothing to do with breaking it. Act of God, I guess. 3:19 PM Apr 30th: Every 1970 college student remembers this day 40 yrs ago–Nixon invaded Cambodia. Mass protests led to closing of 100s of universities. 3:22 PM Apr 30th: Killings at Kent State and Jackson State the following week intensified protests. The nation looked to be coming apart at the seams. 11:51 PM Apr 30th: John Ashcroft, meet Ken Cuccinelli.