Sabato’s Crystal Ball

Thinking back on this busy week, what worked and what didn’t at the GOP Convention? The Good The convention itself appeared better thought out and executed than the Boston conclave for the Democrats. Even the physical set was far more imposing, especially the final-night presidential platform and the Fred Thompson-narrated introductory video. The convention speakers mixed positive and negative messages well, for the most part; by contrast, the Democrats were oddly obsessed with muting the Bush-bashing that would have thrilled the activists and most of the people watching at home. Governor Arnold and Mayor Rudy gave superb addresses, and President Bush–not always a dependable public speaker–rose to the challenge, especially in the final quarter of his talk. The party also impressively communicated its central theme for Bush’s reelection: Bush is the leader for the war on terror and Kerry is not. Sept. 11 and the New York location provided overt and subconscious reinforcement. The Bad The protestors were a ready-made diversion for the news media, providing as they did a more immediate counterpoint to yet another scripted convention. While some demonstrators would have shown up anywhere, five-to-one Democratic New York was a nurturing environment for anti-Bush sentiments–and the Republicans asked

Make a list; check it twice With President Bush six votes shy of the 270 needed to win the Electoral College–and 24 votes ahead of John Kerry–in The Hotline’s White House Scoreboard, tonight’s speech may prove to be the moment that wins him reelection. Tonight is George W. Bush’s chance to define a second-term agenda and give substance to his theme of “compassionate conservatism.” He also must, to some degree, give justification for his policies and how they have served the American people. Lastly, he must differentiate himself from his Democratic challenger with reality, not rhetoric. Furthermore, if the president hopes to recapture some of the voters he’s lost since the Democratic primaries, he must convey a message that he’s trustworthy and sincere. As many Republican insiders have noted in the last two days, trust is something that is easy to lose and hard to regain. For those voters who see Bush as having misled the country into war on the premise of weapons of mass destruction in the hands of an unstable dictator, this could prove to be an insurmountable task for the president. But, if we ignore the predictions by Bush’s own campaign staff that he will spell

Bush: You either love him or you hate him It’s proving to be a pretty divisive time in this political day and age with the number of undecided voters much smaller than usual, just two months out from Election Day. So it was no surprise last night then that retiring Georgia Senator Zell Miller, a Democrat playing in the biggest of Republican sandboxes, tugged on the strings of the GOP base and fired them up. His speech was very caustic, very inciting, and very revealing about the strategy that the GOP will be taking this fall to reelect their man to the highest office in the land. Here in New York, there is quite a dichotomy between the mood inside the convention hall and the one just outside of it. Inside, there are delegates, alternates, and invited guests wearing everything from diamond studded “W” lapel pins to large “W ’04” belt buckles. There was even an alternate wearing a George W. Bush zucchetto (zucchetto is the pope’s hat). Not that the partisans in Boston were any less creative–although I don’t recall any reports of John Kerry yarmulkes. The larger point is that not many people really love or hate the

Or, should we call it “Low-Speed Convention Wrap” This Crystal Ball udpdate is coming to you live from the National Journal area in the Farley Building, adjacent to Madison Square Garden. In yet another move to make things hard on reporters, the convention folks have made Internet access a near impossibility if you don’t have a toll-free 800 number to dial. At the beginning of the week all the phones in the press filing center could dial local numbers for free. Aparently, that was a mistake and Verizon, the official telecommunications provider for the Republican National Convention, switched the phones to act like pay phones. Your Crystal Ball thought it was smart enough to make this work: use our calling card to make a local call. Oh contraire monfraire, Verizon is unfortunately unable to make that work for our computers. The round of problems we’ve reported from the Press Filing Center is not impacting most of the U.S.-based publications. National Journal, for example, was allocated 4,800 square feet of work space here in the Farley Building. And, rightly so–between the Hotline and Convention Daily, they are doing their fair share of work. But small independent publications like your Crystal Ball

The GOP’s message for convention viewers this week has been very succinct: President Bush is the best candidate to lead the War on Terror. While the communications office here at the Republican National Convention has been telling the media each day has a theme–tonight’s was “People of Compassion”–if the focus of the election stays on terror, it will only benefit Bush. Last night, Senator John McCain and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani hammered on the terror issue and they are both very credible sources in the minds of the electorate. One is a war veteran who is seemingly able to rise above the partisan politics of the Beltway, and the other is the undisputed hero in the aftermath of the devastating attacks on the World Trade Center. Although Arnold Schwarzenegger’s credentials on national security are pithy in comparison, he too was able to capitalize on the issue and frame the War on Terror as a choice between the two candidates for president this fall in his speech tonight. Appealing to those voters who may have taken issue with the Republican platform, especially the GOP’s stance on certain social issues, Schwarzenegger said: “And maybe just maybe you don’t agree with

Twist and Shout Just as the Republicans did this July in Boston, the Democrats have setup a rapid response center to spin the news coming out of Madison Square Garden. A direct twist of the banner that hung above President Bush when he declared an end to hostilities aboard the USS Abraham on May 1, 2003, the Democrats established missionnotaccomplished.com. The team includes New York Senators Chuck Schumer and Hillary Clinton, New York Congressman Charles Rangel, Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack, and General Merrill McPeak. There’s even a banner in Times Square. But the effect of this group will barely be felt. Just like last month, the media know that this week is for the party holding the convention. As was argued last month, it’s all about the balloons, not the substance, or rather, lack of substance to the convention. Where Do They Get These Numbers? At a National Republican Senatorial Committee press conference this afternoon Chairman and Virginia Senator George Allen commented that “California has an opportunity to really be turning around” this year, referencing the race there between Senator Barbara Boxer and former Secretary of State Bill Jones. Allen also noted that Jones is only four points behind Boxer

Protest Update: The Crystal Ball Can’t Get No Love Two incidents in the past few days have prompted the Crystal Ball to speak out about the protesters, or, if you will, protest the protesters. During the United for Peace and Justice rally on Sunday, as your Crystal Ball was exiting Madison Square Garden to grab a slice and take in all the city has to offer, the crowd on Seventh Ave. gave a resounding “boo!” Our jokes are hackneyed, indeed, but the Crystal Ball highly doubts that the gaggle of disapproving protesters could tell that we are in fact, the Crystal Ball. The second incident occurred just last night, as the Crystal Ball was making its way from the convention hall to our hotel–with a quick stop for ice cream, of course. Two young ladies yelled “Republicans: Go home!” While a member of the CB team had some choice words for the young New Yorkers, perhaps now is a good time to reaffirm our commitment to non-partisan analysis. The Crystal Ball is neither Republican or Democrat, nor Green, nor Libertarian. The only ideological stance we stake is that the future of American democracy depends on actively engaging young people, and

May We Present the Republican Candidates for U.S. Senate While the focus of this week will be on President Bush, his first-term accomplishments and his plans for another, the Monday morning session showcased seven Republican candidates for Senate. After an introduction by National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) Chairman George Allen (R-VA), the candidates proceeded to deliver quick stump speeches sticking to this week’s talking points. Some highlights from the four candidates in the most contested races: Pete Coors (CO) – “I’ll be a voice for Colorado families for lower taxes and lower spending, a strong military and a growing economy that creates real opportunity for men and women throughout our state and our nation.” Jim Demint (SC) – “This convention is about building a better future and a great president who has proven that he has the courage and right ideas to take us there.” George Nethercutt (WA) – “We have brought economic growth…Medicare reform…a new Homeland Security Department…and we are now fighting terrorists on their won soil and not ours.” John Thune (SD) – “The common sense agenda of President Bush and our Senate Republican majority has been obstructed too long.” A senior Republican strategist has told the Crystal

Presidential election history suggests several verities that might apply as the GOP convenes in New York City: 1. Incumbent presidents usually get a convention bounce that is smaller, often about half to two-thirds, of their less well-known challengers in the other party. Since John Kerry got a bounce estimated to be a mere two points overall–once all the major nonpartisan national surveys are averaged in the two weeks following the Democratic National Convention–this “rule” would predict that George W. Bush will gain a mere one point from New York! So why do we wonder whether history will be rewritten by the Republican Convention? It’s all just too pat and pre-packaged for our tastes. Yes, as it has been written a thousand times since Boston, there are few “undecideds” in 2004, so a bounce this year cannot be very large. This argument appears logical, but is it not also possible that Americans were not overly impressed with the Democratic conclave or with Kerry’s performance? Could it be, in retrospect, that even to untrained eyes, Kerry overdid his Vietnam service and left too many blanks about the rest of his life? Moreover, isn’t Bush having a mild semi-revival? Just about everyone agrees