Sabato’s Crystal Ball

Now that the war phase of the Iraq operation is winding down, it’s time for the Crystal Ball to return and assess the damage. Not damage on the ground, but the damage – or the boost – to various presidential candidates’ chances. First, the DEMOCRATS. Let’s remember how the last successful Democratic nominee handled a similar war. In 1991 Bill Clinton uttered this marvelously ambiguous, pre-“the meaning of is” statement about the congressional debate for authorization of the Persian Gulf War: “I guess I would have voted with the majority [for the war] if it was a close vote. But I agree with the argument that the minority made [against the war].” In other words, in true Clintonian fashion he managed glibly to avoid antagonizing either side, while giving both sides hope that he was secretly one of them. The Democrats for 2004 fall into three categories: PRO-WAR: John Edwards, Dick Gephardt, Joe Lieberman. ANTI-WAR: Howard Dean, Bob Graham, Dennis Kucinich, Carol Moseley Braun, Al Sharpton. CLINTONIAN: John Kerry. The party activists are heavily anti-war, and this fact has been propelling Dean in particular. Yet it is possible that by Iowa caucus time, Democrats will be focused on domestic issues

Julius Caesar was warned: “Beware the Ides of March.” Our modern presidents should be warned: “Beware the third year.” Why, that’s the presidential year George W. Bush has just begun! The third year is among the times that try presidents’ souls. Take a look at our new analysis of the Gallup Poll trends for presidents since Lyndon B. Johnson… Take a look at the Gallup Poll trends (above) for Presidents since Lyndon B. Johnson (with Gerald Ford, who didn’t have a full third year, excluded.) Johnson: Year 3, 1966, was LBJ’s turning point. Vietnam and domestic problems eroded his public backing from the 70s to the 40s by the third year. Johnson never made a comeback and was all but forced from office in 1968. Nixon: Year 3, 1971, was arguably the genesis of Nixon’s Waterloo. President Nixon fell below 50 percent for the first time and was losing to major Democrats in the 1972 horserace match-ups. The dawn of much of Watergate’s shenanigans can be found in the White House’s 1971 panic. Nixon’s landslide ’72 reelection merely obscured his approaching fate. Carter: Year 3, 1979, was the real beginning of Carter’s collapse, and he ended the first half of

After a post-election hiatus, we officially re-launch Sabatos Crystal Ball as the political planets align. The New Hampshire primary is exactly one year from today , and the 2005 presidential inauguration is just less than two years away. The Crystal Ball has been given a complete overhaul, making our critically acclaimed site even more visually appealing and interactive. Included are sections on the 2003 gubernatorial races, as well as the 2004 races for president, Senate, House, and governor. Each section is packed with loads of information and commentary, along with a historical perspective. The presidential section includes features such as an analysis of the nomination process, the “3 keys to the presidency,” and detailed candidate profiles. During the course of the next two years, we will be tracking the latest political developments and putting them into the broader context of our electoral tradition. So stay tuned, and keep an eye on the Crystal Ball! Now down to business… The 2004 Presidential Election in a Nutshell: Thumbs Up, Thumbs Down That’s all there really is to any election for president involving an incumbent. It’s a simple referendum: Do people want to keep the president, or get rid of him? If the