Arkansas

Outlook: Solid Democratic

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May 28, 2008 Update:

The ballot is set and there will be no GOP challenger for Democratic incumbent Mark Pryor. The Green Party has thrown a candidate into the race in attorney Rebekah Kennedy. Kennedy was the Green candidate for Attorney General in 2006, and received just over 4 percent of the vote. As if she didn’t face enough of an uphill climb as a third-party candidate against a popular incumbent, Kennedy is $3.7 million behind Pryor in cash on hand. Pryor will coast into an easy second term.

March 3, 2008 Update:

Want to know what the cat-bird’s seat feels like? Ask junior Senator and Democratic incumbent Mark Pryor. The election is only 8 months away, and Pryor has yet to draw a serious challenge from either party. While early thinking was that former Governor Mike Huckabee would get shellacked in the Republican presidential race, and then return to Arkansas to challenge Pryor, Huckabee has enjoyed quite a bit of national success. As a result, it seems highly unlikely we’ll see Huckabee enter this race, making things all the easier for Pryor’s reelection. With as much ammo as Pryor has been able to stockpile up until now, he should be able to protect his Senate seat just fine come November.

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Background

Junior Senator Mark Pryor should be able to keep the Democratic stranglehold on statewide office in 2008. In the land that once was Clinton’s, Pryor is enjoying a 63% favorability rating at the tail end of his first term. Numbers like those, and no announced challengers from either party, make 2008 look like easy sledding for Pryor.

Even if he should be challenged, Pryor’s emphasis on constituent service and moderate positions will win him tons of votes. He’s been outspoken in calling for the resignation of Alberto Gonzales after Gonzales fired the U.S. Attorney for the Eastern District of Arkansas, then bypassed Senate confirmation for his replacement. Pryor has also announced his endorsement of former Arkansas first-lady, Senator Hillary Clinton for president.

The most likely challenger for Pryor might be Republican ex-Governor Mike Huckabee. Huckabee, currently running for the Republican presidential nod, trails Pryor 49-42 in recent polls.

Arkansas

Outlook: Likely Republican

6 Electoral Votes (6 in 2000)
Bush won in 2004 by 9.76%

Arkansas is a conservative state, yet it is dominated by Democrats. Both of its U.S. Senate seats are occupied by Democrats, as are three of its four seats in Congress, the governor’s mansion, and the majority of both chambers of its state Legislature. Of course, most of these Democratic representatives are of the Blue Dog Democrat variety–conservatives who do not agree with some of the national party positions. This probably explains why George W. Bush won Arkansas by 6 percent in 2000 and by nearly 10 percent in 2004. With Barack Obama toeing closer to the Democratic Party line than most Arkansan Democrats, he will be hard-pressed to capture the state’s electoral votes.

Arkansas (Open Seat)

Outlook: Likely Democratic

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November 8, 2006 Update:

Election Results

As the Crystal Ball predicted, Democrat Mike Beebe defeated Republican Asa Hutchinson with 55% of the vote.

August 27, 2006 Update:

Our Arkansas contacts report that Democrat Mike Beebe is gaining steam and Republican Asa Hutchinson is having difficulty with this campaign. After ten years with a Republican governor, Arkansas appears increasingly likely to return to the Democrats, thus solidifying Democratic control of the Razorback State. Should Beebe win, Arkansas will have two Democratic Senators, a Democratic governor and a heavily-democratic legislature–as well as a U.S. House delegation with three Democrats to just one Republican. Except at the presidential level, Arkansas may well be the most Democratic Southern state.

August 2, 2006 Update:

With the tragic death of Lt. Gov. Win Rockefeller (R), who might well have been the GOP nominee for governor, Republicans in the state are reminded of what might have been. Instead, Democrat Mike Beebe has opened up a steady lead over Republican Asa Hutchinson, and while it is close and the lead could switch, Beebe is seen as the frontrunner and at least for now the likely winner.

Governor Mike Huckabee may have a hard time explaining on the presidential campaign trail why the GOP has not done better during his tenure as chief executive; Democrats control both U.S. Senate seats, a large majority of the House delegation, the state legislature, and may not get the governorship back, too.

March 27, 2006 Update:

We have talked with quite a number of Arkansas sources over the last month and, in both parties, the belief is that Democrat Mike Beebe has at least a narrow lead over former Congressman Asa Hutchinson. Perhaps it is simply the Democratic drift in 2006, or perhaps it is the fact that Arkansas remains one of the more Democratic Southern states, despite having voted for George W. Bush in both 2000 and 2004.

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Background

Republican Governor Mike Huckabee is term-limited–and 110 pounds slimmer–after serving since July 1996, when he succeeded resigning, disgraced Governor Jim Guy Tucker (D). The born-again fitness guru-governor was, like Bill Clinton, a native of Hope, Arkansas, and may run for President in 2008 or eventually for one of the two Democrat-held Senate seats.

For 2006, though, he is out of the picture. Huckabee’s party was headed for a tough primary between Lt. Gov. Win Rockefeller, son of the late Gov. Winthrop Rockefeller (1967-1971), and former Congressman Asa Hutchinson, an ex-Bush undersecretary of Homeland Security and brother of one-term U.S. Senator Tim Hutchinson (1997-2003). Rockefeller, sadly, has had to withdraw from the race because of a battle with cancer, and as a result, Hutchinson is now effectively the GOP nominee. The Rockefeller tragedy has saved the Republicans a potentially divisive battle.

The Democrats seem to have settled on a nominee: state Attorney General Mike Beebe. Of all the Southern states, Arkansas is arguably the most competitive between the parties, and there is no favorite in November at present. However, the Arkansas political specialists with whom we have spoken seem to believe that Beebe has a small edge over Hutchinson, at least at this early stage.