The uncertain political ramifications of Justice Kennedy’s exit
Editor’s Note: The Crystal Ball will be off for the Fourth of July. We’ll be back on Thursday, July 12.
16 For ’16
Editor’s Note: The Crystal Ball is taking the week off for Thanksgiving next week, but we’ll be back with another
Mea culpa, mea culpa, mea maxima culpa
Well, what can we say — we blew it. We thought the signs pointed to Hillary Clinton winning the White
Our Final 2016 picks
After a nearly two-year campaign — kicked off in December 2014 by Jeb Bush (remember him?) — we’ve come to
Is Clinton slipping?
Hillary Clinton has picked an awful time to hit one of the rough patches that has plagued her throughout the
THE COMEY EFFECT
The purest version of the “October surprise” is a political bombshell that no one sees coming. In the closing days
THE STATE OF PLAY WITH A DOZEN DAYS TO GO
Another week has passed in the presidential race and it appears that Donald Trump is not making up much if
With 19 days to go, Clinton’s lead is bigger than ever
The mist is lifting from the map of the United States and the moment of clarity for the 2016 general
Clinton adds to her Electoral College edge
In the broad sweep of U.S. history, very occasionally one of the major parties simply disqualifies itself from the contest
Clinton’s Electoral College lead regenerates
Programming note: We’ll release a special Crystal Ball Sunday night with a recap of the second presidential debate. As we
Now We Wait
Dear Readers: We’re operating on a slightly modified schedule this week and next. There will be no Crystal Ball on
Do Debates Matter?
Editor’s Note: This article is partially an update of a piece we published in 2012 discussing the impact of presidential
THE TRUMP SURGE
And then, everything changed. Well, not everything, but enough to generate the first major revision in our electoral map, and
THE FUNDAMENTALS: Where Are We in This Strange Race for President?
Every presidential election is different, but nobody’s going to tell us that this one isn’t notably different from any other
GOVERNORS 2016: ARE WE IN FOR A REPEAT OF 2014’S ODD RESULTS?
They aren’t getting much national attention because of the races for the presidency and Congress, but this year’s gubernatorial contests