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Larry J. Sabato

Kerry with Narrow Lead in June

With less than five months to go until Nov. 2, the candidates will travel many thousands of miles in their

Larry J. Sabato

Kerry Can Win Virginia…But Will He?

The Kerry campaign recently stunned the national political community with its announcement that Kerry would seriously contest Virginia, which has

Larry J. Sabato

Herseth Wins South Dakota

With all 798 precincts reporting, Stephanie Herseth (D) has won the statewide U.S. House seat in South Dakota. Precisely as

Larry J. Sabato

George W. Bush as Harry S. Truman

The gloom among Republicans is deepening as President Bush falls behind Democratic nominee John F. Kerry by a small, but

Larry J. Sabato

It’s a Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad World

The Crystal Ball is revealing its age with this headline, recalling a semi-forgettable 1960s-era film starring Spencer Tracy and Milton

Larry J. Sabato

The Three Predictors of the Presidency

There have been 26 presidential elections over the last hundred years. In exactly half of them (13), the incumbent president

Larry J. Sabato

Conventional Wisdom Watch

Understandably, everybody is convinced that the November election will be another squeaker like 2000. Maybe it will be — but

Larry J. Sabato