Skip links

2004 President

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Low-Carb Convention Wrap

Gentlemen, Start Your Engines While you don’t hear the term bandied about much anymore, the hot topic earlier in the campaign season was “NASCAR Dads,” 2004’s trendy demographic group that was purported to take the place of the quickly-fading-from-popularity “Soccer Moms.” NASCAR Dads were often described as middle- to lower middle-class family men who typically live in rural or suburban areas, and who used to vote Democratic but are now trending Republican. The likelihood that this is an accurate demographic that will be a swing group in the fall is small, but it turns out that there is still something for them here at the Democratic National Convention in Boston. On Wednesday afternoon at the New England Aquarium Plaza, the NASCAR Nextel Cup Family Festival took place, featuring a showing of the IMAX film on NASCAR, as well as an appearance by driver Kasey Khane, who is currently racing in both the Nextel Cup and Busch Series. Protests Enter the Lumbar Region Demonstrations and rallies continued on Wednesday, with the more interesting ones taking place further from the Fleet Center. Making a stop in Copley Square, just across from the Boston Public Library was the Backbone Campaign, “a grassroots effort

Matt Smyth

Boston Morning Tea

If a Political Tree Falls in the Woods… With no live network coverage of Tuesday night’s convention speeches, their impact on the American public is limited to news highlights, newspaper articles, and word of mouth. Save for keynote speaker Barack Obama and Teresa Heinz Kerry, who closed the evening, most of the podium-dwellers lacked a great deal of national appeal. Senator Edward Kennedy spoke for a solid 25 minutes, to a cheering crowd waving “KENNEDY” signs, while California First Lady Maria Shriver watched from a Fleet Center luxury box. Kennedy is one of very few speakers this week to actually utter the name “Bush,” when he referenced the president at the end of his remarks. Most speakers to this point have only alluded to the current administration. Senator Tom Daschle and retiring Congressman Dick Gephardt addressed the convention early in the evening, both giving relatively brief speeches and receiving warm welcomes from the crowd. Daschle will actually be leaving before Kerry accepts the nomination on Thursday, traveling to South Dakota for his own campaign. Ron Reagan, son of former president Ronald Reagan, also took the podium on Tuesday night and, as expected, refrained from making any significant partisan remarks. Instead,

Matt Smyth

Low-Carb Convention Wrap

Old Guard, Young Blood Tonight’s agenda of speakers shows a marked difference between the first evening session and the second evening session, with a recognizable slate of long-serving Democrats addressing the convention early, and a fresh line up of new faces wrapping up the evening. Other than The O.C.’s Benjamin McKenzie, most of the early speakers have been around the block a few times: Senator Edward Kennedy, Congressman Dick Gephardt, and Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle. The transition from the first to the second evening session is segued by two of the early competitors for the Democratic nomination, Carol Moseley Braun and Howard Dean. Dean–who is likely to keep his voice down–will be followed by Democratic up and comers AZ Governor Janet Napolitano and IL Senate candidate Barack Obama. Obama, who will be delivering the evening’s keynote speech, is a hot commodity at the convention; his campaign buttons, simply reading “OBAMA,” have spread throughout the Fleet Center this week. While the Crystal Ball recognizes that the conventions are for the most part a week long motivational session for partisans on each side, there is a level of excitement that can only benefit the political process. There has been a noticeable

Matt Smyth

Boston Morning Tea

Opening Night By the time the second evening session started, most of the seats in the Fleet Center were filled–even those behind the stage, with obstructed views and a less than preferable position behind the speaker clusters. Former President Jimmy Carter led off with an impassioned speech that was very critical of the current administration, although he refrained from mentioning President Bush by name. The speakers who followed were a diverse group of Democratic members of Congress, including Stephanie Tubbs Jones (OH), Tammy Baldwin (WI), and Robert Menendez (NJ)–who delivered a portion of his remarks in Spanish. But, as the evening grew late, the crowd was clearly getting restless in anticipation of Senator Hilary Clinton, who would be introducing her husband and former president Bill Clinton. Her remarks were brief, but well received by the Democratic faithful, and she wasted little time in getting to the introduction. When he emerged form backstage, it was to the largest ovation of the evening. His remarks touched on tax cuts, Social Security, federal funding for law enforcement, national security, and international relations, before moving on to John Kerry. When talking about Kerry, Clinton referred to his experience Vietnam and willingness to volunteer, eventually

Matt Smyth

Boston Morning Tea

The gavel drops later today, marking the official opening of the 2004 Democratic National Convention. Of course, convention related activities have been going on for several days now, including a welcome party for media organizations on Saturday. The Crystal Ball resisted the temptation to be wooed, and instead chose to spend its time in preparation for a busy week of coverage. Official welcome receptions for state delegations took place throughout the city on Sunday, but not everyone here in town is in support of the convention. The weekend witnessed several organized protests, including an anti-war rally at the Fleet Center, an anti-abortion demonstration outside of Faneuil Hall, a march by families of 9/11 victims ending at Copley Square, and a protest by LaRouche supporters outside of Harvard’s John F. Kennedy School of Government. The big names addressing the convention this evening include former president Jimmy Carter, Senator Hillary Clinton, former president Bill Clinton, 2000 nominee Al Gore, Senator Barbara Mikulski, and convention chair and New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson. Also, one of John Kerry’s Vietnam crewmates–David Alston–will speak during prime time. Don’t expect to hear a lot of substance from many of today’s speakers, but rather a high level of

Matt Smyth

Low-Carb Convention Wrap

For Whom the Gavel Drops Democratic National Committee chair Terry McAuliffe officially banged the convention to order this afternoon at 4PM, opening the first afternoon session which will feature quite a few speakers and take care of the convention’s parliamentary business in preparation for this evening’s prime time agenda. Security around the Fleet Center is indeed tight, with representatives from all different levels of law enforcement. The City of Boston expects to spend over $60 million on security, and up to this point there have been no major incidents. While there are only 4,353 delegates (plus 611 alternates), the Democratic National convention Committee has credentialed roughly 15,000 members of the media, and 15,000 other guests–including elected officials and foreign dignitaries—all of whom are expected to be in attendance during the week. Prime Time Viewing Guide The evening session will be divided into two distinct parts, beginning at 7PM and 9PM, respectively. Below is a list of speakers: 7PM Session: FL Congressman Kendrick Meek MTV essay contest winner Michael Negron Boston Mayor Tom Menino TX Congressman James Turner MD Congressman and Democratic Whip Steny Hoyer DNC Chair Terry McAuliffe NM Governor Bill Richardson Bebe Winans singing the National Anthem Former Vice

Matt Smyth

Let the Conventions Begin

As a veteran of 14 national political conventions–seven in each party–let me offer you, dear readers, a few brief observations. As usual, they will be somewhat contrarian and anti-conventional wisdom–which is my bent–but nonetheless true, I believe. Enjoy the convention but take nothing too seriously, except for John Kerry’s speech on Thursday night Pity our friends in the news media. They have to cover four days of pretty much nothing. They have to talk about something, though, and so they will understandably read great meaning into every jot and tittle, analyzing each convention speech as though the fate of the nation depended on it, and gossiping in that inside-the-Beltway manner that makes sense to the players and leaves many viewers and readers scratching their heads. What matters is not the “big ticket” speeches (save Kerry’s) and media focus on the personalities of the day, but rather the overall general impression given to the viewers and readers at home Most Americans with non-political lives will, at most, dip briefly in and out of the coverage. There is no real news and all the major decisions were made weeks and months ago. Therefore, the important question is: What sense of the convention

Larry J. Sabato

The Last Hundred Days

Okay, the fun and games are over. The grim reality of Campaign ’04 is fully upon us. And there are two alternative realities, two parallel universes unfolding before us–only one of which can come mainly true. Much like Superman and Bizzaro Superman they exist in conflict, but eventually one will emerge as the real thing. Parallel Universe 1: The Kerry Mandate Kerry has chosen well for vice president, reaping an avalanche of favorable press contrasting Vice President Cheney with his nominee, North Carolina Senator John Edwards. True, Edwards is inexperienced and superficial on the most vital matters of national security, but after the ultra-experienced Cheney’s disastrous goof on Iraq, experience has a bad name. In addition, Edwards is as cute as a bug in a rug, and the media gave him 91 percent positive coverage during the primaries according to the Center for Media and Public Affairs–the most positive coverage ever accorded any candidate since the statistics have been kept. By comparison, Cheney perpetually looks as though he is in the midst of his fifth heart attack–pasty, dull, boring, and politically inept. Thus, the prime-time exposure of John Edwards at the Democratic National Convention, all by itself, adds several points

Larry J. Sabato

The Cheney Dilemma

As expected, the Kerry campaign has put George W. Bush in a box with the selection of John Edwards. And there is probably no way for Bush to win this part of the presidential battle. How has Bush been cornered? Almost any Democratic veep selection–not just Edwards–would have contrasted nicely with the incumbent vice president. It is hard to remember, but four years ago the selection of Dick Cheney was met with near-unanimous approval across the political and journalistic spectrum. “Cheney is a mature veteran of the public and private sectors, one of the best and brightest on the GOP side,” the chorus said. “He’s well prepared to be president if he has to do it, and he’s the voice of experience in the ear of a relatively untested presidential nominee, George W. Bush.” To put it bluntly, Cheney has blown it. One would have expected a classic Washington establishment insider to know how to keep his reputation intact through innumerable controversies–calling the “right” people here, consulting the “wise” men and women of D.C. there, taking the puffed-up press poobahs of the Capital City to lunch at the White House here and there. Anybody recall how Henry Kissinger came out

Larry J. Sabato

Veep! Veep! It’s Edwards!

Our long wait is over, and John Kerry has given us all a lot to chew on with the selection of North Carolina U.S. Sen. John Edwards to be his Democratic Party running-mate for vice president. THE IMMEDIATE CONSEQUENCES in the Crystal Ball are twofold: We are changing North Carolina from Solid Bush to Leans Bush. Even though Edwards will make North Carolina competitive, Bush’s 56 percent in 2000 is a mountain to climb for Kerry. Moreover, the one-term Edwards has never been terribly popular in his home state, and he essentially abandoned his Senate seat to seek the presidency (he has one of the worst attendance records in the Senate). He won his first and only office in 1998 with just 51 percent of the vote, and polls during his tenure have found his job approval to be anemic – often near 40 percent. Still, the enormous burst of positive publicity with his VP selection should push Kerry-Edwards into a tie with, or even above, Bush-Cheney in North Carolina. Our guess is that this will be a temporary bump, but Edwards’ campaign skills are such that the Bush campaign will unexpectedly have to spend considerable sums in the state,

Larry J. Sabato

2004 as 1980?

Back on June 10, we issued an analysis that suggested just how similar the election of 1980 – Carter v. Reagan v. Anderson – was to the election of 2004 – Bush v. Kerry v. Nader. Remarkably, just in the last week or so, we have heard our words used, almost verbatim (and in the news business tradition, without attribution), by quite a number of news analysts and commentators. So be it, as imitation is the highest form of flattery! But the contrarian in us is rebelling, now that our thinking has become the dreaded conventional wisdom, embraced by the noxious Beltway pundit class. Is there another way of looking at the same two election years? Is the Pope Catholic? Here with a few differences, to balance the similarities to 1980 we offered earlier: Jimmy Carter would have given his right leg and left foot for the kind of sterling economy George W. Bush is presenting to the American public. A recession that likely began at the end of the Clinton administration, aggravated by the 9/11 attacks, has given way to a low-inflation, low-interest rates, job-creating, income-producing machine that is easily the equal of the one Bill Clinton claimed credit

Larry J. Sabato

Kerry with Narrow Lead in June

With less than five months to go until Nov. 2, the candidates will travel many thousands of miles in their quest to finally park the campaign bus at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. The path to the White House is a meandering one, which will take both Bush and Kerry through teetering swing states scattered across the country in order to top off their tanks with enough high-octane electoral votes to propel them to the highest elected office in the land. How will they get there? The terrain will surely shift between now and Election Day, but the Crystal Ball is happy to provide you with a method to plot each candidate’s course. Here now is “Sabato’s Electoral Road Map,” which looks at each state individually and predicts its CURRENT electoral leaning. As the days and miles fly by and the candidates trade paint, we’ll keep you posted on changes in the standings. It’s sure to get intense as we get closer to November, but remember that the campaign trail is just like the speedway — rubbin’ is racin’. All 50 states are clickable, and in addition to our unique analysis, information is provided to give you, the reader, a basic idea

Larry J. Sabato

A Lesson Plan from the Great Communicator

It’s been a moving week of tributes and retrospectives on the Reagan Presidency. But has the look back told us anything about the 2004 campaign? For some time now, the Crystal Ball has suggested that the current “Big Issue” election of 2004 contains some echoes of 1968 and 1980 – the two other macro-issue campaigns in recent decades. Let’s focus this time on 1980, the year when Ronald Reagan achieved what observers at the time thought unlikely. After all, he’d lost the GOP nomination for president in both 1968 and 1976, in part because he was perceived as too far to the right, too out of the mainstream. And by 1980, he was on the verge of turning 70, Eisenhower’s age upon leaving the White House after eight years of service. Yet Reagan not only won, he scored a ten point landslide over incumbent President Jimmy Carter, gave the GOP their first Senate majority since the early 1950s, and added 33 Republicans to the House of Representatives. So much for Conventional Wisdom! The similarities to 2004 are many: Foreign policy seemed a mess, with the United States bogged down in a protracted crisis in the Middle East (Iran in 1980,

Larry J. Sabato

For the Historical Record

Historical statistics can sometimes tell us a great deal about tendencies in upcoming elections, often with eerie levels of accuracy. They also can be entertaining and provide an amusing coincidental context with which to frame the prospects of particular candidates. Below are two historical arguments for the general election winner; one predicts Bush, while the other says Kerry. We will leave it to our faithful readers to decide which will continue to bat 1.000 after November 2. Our first trend comes courtesy of Tim Farley of Pittsburg, Calif. and Jeremy Plant of State College, Penn. They informed the Crystal Ball of the “Four Letter Name – One Term” curse, which to date has prevented all presidents with surnames of four letters from serving a second term. George H. W. Bush was the most recent victim of this rampant electoral killer in 1992; Gerald Ford fell prey to it in 1976; William Taft was swallowed whole in 1912; and in 1848 James K. Polk may have given birth to the curse when he decided not even to try for another four years in the White House. Among superstitious types, this bodes well for John Kerry. On the other side, modern incumbent

UVA Center for Politics

Kerry Can Win Virginia…But Will He?

The Kerry campaign recently stunned the national political community with its announcement that Kerry would seriously contest Virginia, which has not voted for a Democratic nominee since President Lyndon Johnson won a sizeable 53.5 percent in 1964. And then, sure enough, Kerry showed up in Portsmouth, Va., for Memorial Day. The first reaction was one of disbelief. After all, virtually no one associates the Old Dominion with liberalism of any kind, much less the Massachusetts variety represented by John Kerry. Even Lyndon Johnson finished almost nine points off his national pace in Virginia. But the Kerry campaign claims its private poll shows the Democrat trailing Bush by a single percentage point in Virginia. The table below shows the electoral results for presidential elections in Virginia since 1948. As analysts put their thinking caps on to consider the Kerry presence in Virginia, several explanations emerged, with some truth to all of them: The Kerry people were attempting a “head fake,” baiting the Bush/Cheney campaign to spend money in safely GOP Virginia rather than in a truly competitive state. The target was the Beltway press, who can see the ads as they run in Virginia, with the message being that Kerry has

Larry J. Sabato