George W. Bush as Harry S. Truman
The gloom among Republicans is deepening as President Bush falls behind Democratic nominee John F. Kerry by a small, but clearly perceptible, margin in many national and swing-state polls. This is, by our count, the fourth time the lead has changed hands since January. (Bush was up as the new year dawned, Kerry took command after Iowa, Bush resurged in April, and now the Kerry lead in ARG, CNN, Gallup, Newsweek and Pew surveys.) Yet somehow, Bush’s problems appear more damaging and perhaps more enduring with a mere 166 days remaining before the November election. (166 days can be the blink of an eye, or an eternity. In this extraordinary election year that resembles in some ways the cataclysmic twins of 1968 and 1980, it may be both.) There are two fundamental reasons for Bush’s sharp decline in job approval and the dramatic increase in people saying the nation is on the “wrong track.” First, Bush’s presidency is – by his own admission – inextricably bound to Iraq, and things are going very badly there. Second, he is receiving no credit at all for the substantial, very positive rebound in the economy. Let’s briefly look at each factor, one where