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2010 Governor

Sabato's Crystal Ball

MIDTERM MORSELS: WV Senate and AL Governor

West Virginia Senate—It is looking very likely that we’ll have a 37th Senate election to noodle about, the extra being held in the Mountain State to choose the successor to the late Senator Robert C. Byrd (D), the longest serving member of Congress in history who passed away on June 28. At first, all indications were that a gubernatorial appointee would fill the seat until November 2012, when Sen. Byrd would have come up for his tenth Senate term. The Secretary of State in West Virginia tentatively ruled so, though West Virginia law is somewhat ambiguous on the point. In the first blush, after Sen. Byrd’s demise, it was generally believed that Democrats would have preferred to have a guaranteed appointee in place for the next two and a half years, without adding yet another contested Senate race to the 2010 roster—especially in a state that has voted Republican for the past three presidential elections. West Virginia might be one more seat to worry about in a bad year for Democrats. On the other hand, an election in 2012 would simply have delayed the day of reckoning. We can assume, barring an Obama reelection landslide, the Republican nominee for president

Larry J. Sabato

THOSE STUBBORN TOSS-UPS

With just four months to go before the voting in November, many races have settled in—falling into the D or R column as Solid, Likely, or Lean. But then, there are those stubborn toss-ups. Some are unmovable since the primaries haven’t yet been held and the nominees in one or both parties are unknown. Still others haven’t gelled because candidates aren’t spending money or voters are stubbornly refusing to focus on politics in the middle of a hot summer. (How dare they?) A handful of match-ups—some of the best races this year—are nicely balanced on the knife’s edge, so much so that it is easy to imagine circumstances that will tilt them either way. These circumstances include a variety of electoral conditions: Democrats hope that the economy will show more signs of life by September. If it does, some of the toss-ups may edge back toward Democratic incumbents; if it doesn’t, the bad economy could deliver many extra seats to the GOP. If the BP oil gusher is capped, and the beaches are being cleaned and Gulf residents properly compensated, then it’s hard to see how this calamity will matter much at the polls. But if a monster hurricane turns

Larry J. Sabato

MIDTERM MORSELS: TERRIFIC TRI-STATE TUESDAY

On Tuesday, political junkies were treated to the latest in a seemingly unending series of primaries. Several critical statewide nominations were determined in North Carolina, South Carolina, and Utah. Our updates, written by the voters more than us, are below. NORTH CAROLINA SENATE: The national political party hierarchies on both sides have had difficulty in this anti-establishment year in selling local activists on all their choices. The Tar Heel State gave us another example on Tuesday in the Democratic runoff for U.S. Senate. For a year, D.C. pooh-bahs have been pushing former state Sen. Cal Cunningham as a telegenic veteran who could take down U.S. Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC) this November. Most of the Democratic top brass enthusiastically agreed with the Cunningham pick. Problem was, Cunningham was seen as too conservative by the actual Democratic voters who showed up in North Carolina’s very low-turnout election. They preferred Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, who finished first in the primary by a considerable margin, 36.4% to Cunningham’s 27.2%. With strong African-American support, Marshall cruised to a crushing victory in Tuesday’s runoff, garnering 60%. Republicans were delighted, and they had been hoping to face Marshall rather than Cunningham. The incumbent Burr, with a

Larry J. Sabato

Midterm Morsels

For all our current ratings please see our Crystal Ball website for Senate and Governor. Governor ALABAMA GOVERNOR: The Republican runoff, to be held July 13th, will be between first-place finisher Bradley Byrne and Robert Bentley, who edged Tim James by a handful of votes. It is now obvious that James is not going to pick up enough votes to vault into the runoff. The GOP winner—and it isn’t clear yet whether it will be Byrne or Bentley—is very likely to defeat Democrat Ron Sparks in November. CALIFORNIA GOVERNOR: Meg Whitman (R) has now topped $90 million—ninety million—in spending from her pocketbook, and it’s just mid-June. Her contest with Jerry Brown (D) will be the ultimate test of self-funding’s reach in contemporary politics. Brown is nervous, and should be. FLORIDA GOVERNOR: The Republican nominee ought to be favored, but there’s something about AG Bill McCollum that just doesn’t sell well in the Sunshine State. A two-time statewide loser already, McCollum is no media candidate, and now he’s tied at best in the GOP primary with self-funder Rick Scott. The Democrat, Alex Sink, hasn’t taken off either, and Bud Chiles, son of former Gov. Lawton Chiles (D), will drain some votes

Larry J. Sabato

Governor and Senate Primary Updates

With the biggest primary night of 2010 now over, more and more of the midterm picture is coming into focus. The Crystal Ball brings you the following quick takes from the hottest Senate and Governor primary races that were decided this week: ARKANSAS Senate: In the biggest upset of the June 8th primary night, two-term Sen. Blanche Lincoln narrowly defeated Lt. Gov. Bill Halter in the Democratic Senate runoff. Halter had been backed by a liberal and labor coalition determined to send a message to Blue Dog Democrats who vote a moderate line. But Lincoln had a powerful ally in former President Bill Clinton. Even though Halter had worked for Clinton, Lincoln had Clinton by her side and in her TV ads, and he went after his allies in labor who had targeted Lincoln. So Arkansas’ runoff record is intact: Not since 1942 has the second place finisher in the first primary beaten the candidate who placed first. Still, the Democratic left has made its point to Blue Dogs everywhere. Now the right will probably make its point in November. In this 59% McCain state, the likely next senator is GOP nominee Congressman John Boozman (R). Lincoln has gotten some

Larry J. Sabato

STATEHOUSE PICTURE SLOWLY EMERGING

There’s now no question that the gubernatorial turnover in November will be historic, with half or more of the states electing new governors (see our previous article on the subject here). With 37 of the 50 states electing governors, and 23 of those states having no incumbent running with additional incumbents in serious electoral trouble, the nation will see an epic turnover—the greatest in at least the last half-century. It is also gradually becoming clear that Republicans will be adding substantially to their current total of governorships. The primaries have yet to work their will, and voters will change the odds in some races by nominating stronger or weaker candidates. Nineteen of the statehouses on the 2010 ballot are currently held by Democrats, and eighteen by Republicans. (In the 50 states as a whole, the count is 26 D, 24 R.) The 23 open governor’s races are also balanced fairly evenly between the two parties (12 D, 11 R). Let’s take a look, region by region, at the current state of the states: NORTHEAST Connecticut—Gov. Jodi Rell (R) is retiring, and the contest to succeed her hasn’t fully gelled. The top Democratic contenders are 2006 Democratic nominee for the U.S.

Larry J. Sabato

MIDTERMS PAST: THE ’66 PARALLEL

For months now, this election has been compared to that of 1994, when Republicans scored huge gains and won both houses of Congress. It is a decent model. But given the recent passage of health care reform – something that did not happen in ’94 – this might be a good occasion to look at another midterm election for instruction, that of 1966. As now, it was a time of bold presidential initiatives buttressed by large Democratic majorities on both sides of Capitol Hill. A plethora of liberal domestic legislation was enacted, featuring the primary health care reform of the age, Medicare (government-run medical care for the elderly), which was passed in 1965. But the mid-1960s was also a period of growing unrest – with an economy going off the tracks, an overseas war that was escalating, and a president whose approval rating was sinking after starting around 70% at the time of his inauguration. Republicans scored large gains across the country in the midterm election of 1966. They were not enough to win control of either house of Congress. But the GOP comeback did restore the Republican “brand” – badly tarnished by Arizona Sen. Barry Goldwater’s landslide loss in

Rhodes Cook

THE AG: Attorney General as Aspiring Governor

Political observers have had their attention directed to state attorneys general of late, due to the court suits against the federal health care reform bill initially filed by fifteen AGs (14 of them Republican, and a lone Democrat from Louisiana). With twenty or more states now signed on to the lawsuits, attorneys general are in the news more than ever. There’s an old joke about the National Association of Attorneys General—their registered name is supposedly the National Association of Aspiring Governors. It’s true in part. Just this year ten of the fifty current state attorneys general are running for governor: Terry Goddard (D) in Arizona, Jerry Brown (D) in California, Bill McCollum (R) in Florida, Thurbert Baker (D) in Georgia, Mike Cox (R) in Michigan, Andrew Cuomo (D) in New York, Drew Edmonson (D) in Oklahoma, Tom Corbett (R) in Pennsylvania, Patrick Lynch (D) in Rhode Island, and Henry McMaster (R) in South Carolina. All are credible candidates, and it will be a surprise if three or four of them aren’t in the winner’s circle come November. (Three other current or former state AGs are running for the U.S. Senate: Republican Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire, and Democrats Richard Blumenthal

Larry J. Sabato

GOVERNORSHIPS 2010: THE CHANGING OF THE GUARD

Back in 1980, the Washington Post’s David S. Broder wrote a notable book, The Changing of the Guard, about the generational turnover of national and state leadership occurring at that time. It’s happening all over again. We’ll see dozens of congressional seats switching hands and sides in November, but the greatest transformation will be in the statehouses. Even though just 37 of the 50 states have a gubernatorial election this November, the midterms are likely to produce so many new governors that a majority of all governors in 2011 will be newly installed. Already, as our updated election chart (below) shows, 23 states have open contests with no incumbent running. This list includes the mega-states of California, Florida, Michigan, New York, and Pennsylvania, as well as lots of smaller, competitive states with an outsized influence on presidential politics, such as Colorado, New Mexico, and Wisconsin. A 24th new governor is almost certain to be added in North Dakota, where Republican Gov. John Hoeven is the overwhelming favorite to grab the U.S. Senate seat of retiring Senator Byron Dorgan (D). Lt. Gov. Jack Dalrymple (R) will become governor once Hoeven, whose current term extends through 2012, resigns to take the Senate

Larry J. Sabato

2010 PRIMARIES: GAUGING ANTI-INCUMBENT SENTIMENT

The 2010 primary season is under way, which at the congressional and gubernatorial levels is often no more than a quiet backwater in America’s electoral process. In recent years, only a few such incumbents have lost their bids for renomination, and only a handful more have had to break a sweat. No sitting senator or governor has lost a primary bid since 2006—when Democratic Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut and Republican Gov. Frank Murkowski of Alaska were both defeated. Meanwhile, just two House members were denied renomination in 2006. In 2008, there were only four. But this year could be dramatically different. Distaste with government is palpable. In last month’s first-in-the-nation primary in Illinois, Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn came within 10,000 votes of losing his party’s gubernatorial primary. This week in Texas, Republican Gov. Rick Perry won renomination by making the Washington experience of his principal rival, Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, more odious to GOP primary voters than his own long run in Austin. To be sure, no House incumbents were defeated in either Illinois or Texas, or for that matter, were even closely contested. But by modern standards, it would still be quite noteworthy if even six or seven

Rhodes Cook

State of the Statehouses

With the primaries in Illinois this past Tuesday, the first ballots have now been cast in the 2010 elections. Naturally, most attention by national pundits has been lavished on the Senate and House contests, since members of Congress—wherever they are elected—have an impact on all of us. Governors affect only their own states in most circumstances, but the 37 statehouse races on the November ballot are every bit as revealing about American politics. The problem with early analysis of the statehouses is that quite a few remain in the formative stages—and it is difficult to project forward without a good idea of the likely autumn match-ups. For example, in Maine twenty-four candidates have filed for governor. Minnesota has even more: thirty-five gubernatorial aspirants. Even in Illinois, some last minute ballot counting and the potential for disputes in both parties’ razor-thin results may keep the line-up murky for a while longer. By the way, despite Illinois’ absurdly early primary date, independent candidates can still register up until June 21 and are not even allowed to begin soliciting signatures until mid-March. If hard feelings in either or both Land of Lincoln parties persist, could there be a secessionist movement leading to multiple

Larry J. Sabato

’09 ELECTIONS: SOME PARTING THOUGHTS

No doubt off-year elections can be overanalyzed. They are few in number. They sometimes give evidence of conflicting trends. And their predictive value for the midterm elections to follow has been rather conclusively debunked (see Alan Abramowitz’s column here). Still, in a decade where the partisan political pendulum has stayed close to even-steven most of the time, even a limited pulse-taking like that on November 3 can provide some welcome clues as to the current state of the electorate. Democrats fared worse last week, hit by a double whammy in the form of depressed turnout among party loyalists and a massive shift of independents to the GOP–at least the independents who showed up in 2009, which might have been a more conservative-leaning group than the larger number of independents who voted in 2008. The combination produced a pair of gubernatorial defeats in Virginia and New Jersey and a warning of potential trouble ahead for the Democrats in 2010. But the Republicans did not emerge from this month’s elections unscathed. Their loss of a historically GOP House seat in upstate New York exposed the party’s own problem–their ongoing failure to win free-standing special congressional elections even on favorable terrain. Often when

Rhodes Cook

Sabato’s Fun Facts–Election ’09

The following “fun facts” are presented as instant analysis of the November 3 election for the Crystal Ball’s readers, straight from the mouth of U.Va. Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato, with the editorial assistance of Isaac Wood: The Republicans learned they can win again (VA, NJ), but only if they can unify their warring factions (NY-23). The Democrats learned they have a different kind of base problem. They have a year to figure out how to get more of their base activists to the polls for another election (the midterms of November 2010) when President Obama won’t be on the ballot. The Garden State results simply prove that New Jerseyans hated Jon Corzine more than they loved Barack Obama. Obama’s high ratings weren’t enough to save Corzine, who was deeply unpopular because of high property taxes, among other reasons. In retrospect, NY-23 was almost comical–another fine mess created by local and national GOP “leaders”. And the results are plain for all to see. Republicans are now down to two, count ’em, two U.S., House seats out of 29 in New York state. In the mid-90s, they had 13 House seats–plus a U.S. senator and the governorship. Some compromise

Larry J. Sabato

What Happens in Virginia and New Jersey, Stays in Virginia and New Jersey

In American politics, what comes around usually goes around. But it doesn’t always go around this quickly. Just one year after their decisive victories in the 2008 presidential and congressional elections, Democrats appear to be in serious trouble. Some political commentators believe that Republican victories in the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial elections reflect growing discontent with President Obama’s performance and may predict substantial GOP gains in next year’s midterm elections. On occasion, victories in Virginia and New Jersey have been followed by big gains in the midterm elections. In 1993 Republicans won both of these off-year contests; one year later they gained 54 House seats and 8 Senate seats and took control of Congress for the first time in almost half a century. Twelve years later, in 2005, Democrats swept to victory in Virginia and New Jersey; a year later they picked up 30 House seats and 6 Senate seats and took control of Congress back from the GOP. But Virginia and New Jersey haven’t always served as bellwethers for the nation. In 1997 both states elected Republican governors but one year later, Democrats gained seats in the House. And in 2001 both states elected Democrats but one year

Alan I. Abramowitz

SO WHO’S GOING TO WIN? LOOK TO THE NORTH STARS

We’re heading ’round the final bend in this year’s Virginia contest for governor, so it’s time to take a look at our traditional gubernatorial “north stars.” These stars, fixed in the firmament and reliable indicators for decades, have long guided our prognostications. Taking the measure of our ten north stars has proven predictive for all the races from 1969 to 2005, and while nothing is foolproof, there’s no reason why the stars won’t illuminate the governor’s mansion on election night this year. Take a glance at the table here. Ten north stars have shone over forty years of Virginia politics: Economy: Is the state economy good, bad, or in-between? Do voters feel better off or worse off than they were four years ago? Party Unity: Which of the two major parties is more unified? Scandal: Is one of the two major-party candidates enveloped in a serious scandal? For the candidate representing the incumbent state administration, is that administration bogged down in a major scandal? Campaign Organization and Technology: Which party has the better organization and most up-to-date technology for its gubernatorial campaign? Campaign Money: Is one candidate significantly outspending the other? Candidate Personality and Appeal: Does one candidate have an

Larry J. Sabato