Black Voters and the 2024 Presidential Election: A Breakthrough for Trump?
Part of former President Trump's relatively strong polling against President Biden in both national and state polls is surprisingly robust…
Explaining Republican Loyalty to Trump: The Crucial Role of Negative Partisanship
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Negative partisanship — the tendency for partisans to be animated by dislike for the
Not Biden vs. Trump Again! The Disgruntled Voters Who Could Decide the 2024 Election
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Joe Biden’s approval numbers are weak and are reminiscent of the numbers from some
The Transformation of the American Electorate
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The American electorate has changed dramatically over the past 40 years, and a
Both White and Nonwhite Democrats are Moving Left
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — One of the big stories of American politics over the past half-century has been
The Outlook for the 2022 Senate Elections: A State-by-State Analysis
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Senate elections have become firmly yoked to their state’s presidential leanings. — Democrats now
Are Democrats Headed for a Shellacking in the Midterm Election?
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Presidential party midterm losses are a regular feature of American politics. — President Biden’s
Are Latinos Deserting the Democratic Party? Evidence from the Exit Polls
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — One key question in American politics is the trajectory of Latino voters. Donald Trump
Redistricting and Competition in Congressional Elections
Dear Readers: Join the UVA Center for Politics this Friday from 3 p.m. to 4 p.m. eastern for a virtual
Why Voter Suppression Probably Won’t Work
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — In the aftermath of the high-turnout 2020 election, many Republican-controlled state governments have passed
Explaining the Republican Victory in the Virginia Gubernatorial Election: Conversion or Mobilization?
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The non-presidential party often performs better in off-year elections than it did in the
Can Democrats Win Back the White Working Class?
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — One of the defining features of American politics is the realignment of white, college-educated
How Donald Trump Turned Off Swing Voters in 2020
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The number of swing voters — those who change their minds between presidential elections
Forecasting the 2022 Midterm Election with the Generic Ballot
Dear Readers: Later today, University of Virginia Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato will hold a Crystal Ball webinar
Assessing the Impact of Absentee Voting on Turnout and Democratic Vote Margin in 2020
Dear Readers: Tomorrow at noon, the McIntire School of Commerce will be hosting a virtual event featuring Sonja Hoel Perkins,