Time for Change Model Predicts Close Election with Slight Edge for Kamala Harris August 22, 2024 This year's version of the Time for Change model shows Kamala Harris as a narrow favorite in both the popular…
Black Voters and the 2024 Presidential Election: A Breakthrough for Trump? March 27, 2024 Part of former President Trump's relatively strong polling against President Biden in both national and state polls is surprisingly robust…
Explaining Republican Loyalty to Trump: The Crucial Role of Negative Partisanship August 22, 2023 KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Negative partisanship — the tendency for partisans to be animated by dislike for the
Not Biden vs. Trump Again! The Disgruntled Voters Who Could Decide the 2024 Election May 10, 2023 KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Joe Biden’s approval numbers are weak and are reminiscent of the numbers from some
The Transformation of the American Electorate March 23, 2023 KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The American electorate has changed dramatically over the past 40 years, and a
Both White and Nonwhite Democrats are Moving Left February 15, 2023 KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — One of the big stories of American politics over the past half-century has been
The Outlook for the 2022 Senate Elections: A State-by-State Analysis June 1, 2022 KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Senate elections have become firmly yoked to their state’s presidential leanings. — Democrats now
Are Democrats Headed for a Shellacking in the Midterm Election? April 12, 2022 KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Presidential party midterm losses are a regular feature of American politics. — President Biden’s
Are Latinos Deserting the Democratic Party? Evidence from the Exit Polls March 24, 2022 KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — One key question in American politics is the trajectory of Latino voters. Donald Trump
Redistricting and Competition in Congressional Elections February 24, 2022 Dear Readers: Join the UVA Center for Politics this Friday from 3 p.m. to 4 p.m. eastern for a virtual
Why Voter Suppression Probably Won’t Work February 3, 2022 KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — In the aftermath of the high-turnout 2020 election, many Republican-controlled state governments have passed
Explaining the Republican Victory in the Virginia Gubernatorial Election: Conversion or Mobilization? December 9, 2021 KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The non-presidential party often performs better in off-year elections than it did in the
Can Democrats Win Back the White Working Class? September 23, 2021 KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — One of the defining features of American politics is the realignment of white, college-educated
How Donald Trump Turned Off Swing Voters in 2020 August 25, 2021 KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The number of swing voters — those who change their minds between presidential elections
Forecasting the 2022 Midterm Election with the Generic Ballot June 10, 2021 Dear Readers: Later today, University of Virginia Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato will hold a Crystal Ball webinar