Does Obama have an approval floor?
On Dec. 3, 2013, President Obama hit his low point in approval as president, at least according to RealClearPolitics’ aggregate average of approval polling. That day, Obama fell below 40% for the first time in RCP’s measure, sinking to 39.8%, though he has since rebounded slightly to 42.1%. Two days after Obama dropped under 40%, Gallup released a report on the president’s approval that showed how his support among different demographic groups had fallen over the past year, in some cases a great deal, with a particular focus on the decrease in approval among Hispanics. Needless to say, we can’t predict what will happen with Obama’s approval from here. Is the worst over for him? Will he dramatically fall off or bounce back up? Who knows? That said, it’s tempting to suggest that Obama might have an approval “floor” — basically, because of his strong support among nonwhites, he might not fall much below 40%. But is that true? Again, it’s impossible to say what events could impact the president’s approval, for better or for worse. But there’s little reason to think that Obama has a “floor” in approval that he can’t dip below. That evidence comes in part from