Keep on Keepin’ On: 2018 Incumbent Renomination Rates
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — As a whole, incumbents won renomination in U.S. Senate, U.S. House, and gubernatorial nomination
A Failure to Launch? Kansas’ Republican Gubernatorial Contest and the History of Incumbent Governor Primary Performance
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — As of Wednesday afternoon, Gov. Jeff Colyer (R-KS) trailed Kansas Secretary of State Kris
Senate Observations: Placing 2018 in the Context of Upper Chamber Elections Since 1913
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — From 1914 to 2016, presidential cycles featured a higher rate of straight-ticket outcomes than
Mountain State Manchin-ations
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) is once again a small favorite in our ratings, moving
Three Republican Governors Face Increasingly Tough Election Contests
KEY POINT FROM THIS ARTICLE — The Crystal Ball has three ratings changes in gubernatorial contests, all shifts in the
Never Say Die Senate Candidates: Don Blankenship Lost His Primary but Plans to Run in November Anyway
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Although he lost in West Virginia’s Republican primary for U.S. Senate, Don Blankenship (R)
Senate 2018: Two Rust Belt Ratings Move in the Democrats’ Direction
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The Crystal Ball has new ratings in the Pennsylvania and Wisconsin U.S. Senate contests,
Virginia’s Busiest Federal Primary Day in Modern History
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — With nine contested U.S. House primaries and one U.S. Senate primary, June 12 will
California Dreamin’: Carving the Golden State into Thirds
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The “Cal 3” initiative is the latest in a long line of proposals to
Empire State of Mind: New York’s Simmering Democratic Primary for Governor
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE: — As he seeks a third term, Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D-NY) is favored to win
Exit Stage Left or Right: Midterm Retirements and Open Seats in the House from 1974 to 2018
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — By multiple measures — such as retirements, “pure” retirements, and open seats that must
Illinois Primary: Rauner Is Reeling
Gov. Bruce Rauner (R-IL) endured a difficult night on Tuesday. Although he won his party’s primary to earn a reelection
The Modern History of Special Election Swing
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Based on the two-party vote, Trump won PA-18 by 20.3 points in 2016 while
The Low Success Rate of Independent and Third-Party Candidates in Senate Elections
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Missouri independent candidate Craig O’Dear is running for U.S. Senate in 2018 but faces
Mixed Signals: Analyzing Elections since Trump Won the Presidency
KEY POINTS IN THIS ARTICLE: — In 2013 elections, Democratic candidates ran behind Barack Obama’s 2012 two-party vote percentage by