2022 State Races

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — If the Supreme Court overturns Roe vs. Wade later this year, it could hypothetically energize Democratic voters in the 2022 midterms. But it’s unclear whether abortion will become a big enough motivator for Democrats to overcome the historical pattern of unfavorable midterms for the party controlling the White House, particularly if concern about the coronavirus pandemic and inflation remains high. — Our analysis suggests that 7 states are the likeliest to experience political tensions over abortion, because they have majorities or pluralities of voters who favor abortion rights but have GOP-led legislatures who may feel driven to restrict abortion access if the Supreme Court overturns Roe. — Each of these 7 states has a highly competitive gubernatorial or Senate race on tap for this fall, and several of them have 2 such races. The states that may have looming abortion fights Before the year is out, the U.S. Supreme Court may decide to weaken, or overturn, the landmark decision Roe vs. Wade, which recognized a right to abortion nationally. Could such a decision provoke a political earthquake, energizing Americans accustomed to abortion access to vote against Republican candidates, whose party has sought such a

Dear Readers: Last month, we announced that Crystal Ball Senior Columnist Louis Jacobson would be analyzing several categories of state-level races for us this cycle. After looking at secretary of state races, Lou is now turning his attention to attorneys general, positions that often have a fair amount of power within state government and get added attention when voters are concerned about both crime and the criminal justice system. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — This year, 30 states will hold elections for attorney general. Historically, these positions have been influential, albeit in a low-profile way, because of their responsibility for spearheading criminal and civil cases in their states. — Following the 2021 election, the GOP will hold 27 attorney general offices to 23 for the Democrats. — Our analysis suggests that 6 AG races this year occupy the most competitive tier, 4 of which are seats currently held by Democrats and 2 of which are seats currently held by Republicans. Another 5 states have AG races that might become competitive by the fall, 3 of which are currently held by Democrats and 2 of which are held by the GOP. The races for state AG This

Dear Readers: We’re delighted to announce that Senior Columnist Louis Jacobson will be taking on an expanded role at the Crystal Ball this cycle. He’ll be regularly analyzing several categories of state-level races for the Crystal Ball: the battles for control of state legislatures and state attorneys general offices, as well as secretaries of state — which is the subject of his piece below. The persistence of former President Trump’s unsubstantiated complaints about the integrity of the 2020 election has raised the visibility of secretary of state races, which will be contested in a little more than half of the states next year. The Crystal Ball itself won’t be issuing formal ratings in these down-ballot state-level races — we’ll continue to just issue ratings for U.S. House, U.S. Senate, and gubernatorial races in midterm years — but Lou’s years of experience covering and analyzing state politics will provide readers with in-depth analysis of these important but often-overlooked state-level contests. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Next year, 27 states will hold elections for secretary of state. With former President Donald Trump continuing to make election fraud the centerpiece of his effort to return to the presidency —