2022 State Races

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The percentage of women in state legislatures has increased in recent years. However, there is still a significant gender gap in most states as women have not reached parity in representation. — The majority of women in state legislatures are Democrats. While more Republican women ran for office in 2022 than in previous years, that didn’t amount to closing the gender gap in representation. — The percentage of women in state legislatures has increased more in Western and Northeastern states than in Midwestern and Southern states. This is likely due to a number of factors, including the political climate, the level of motivation and activism among women, and the availability of resources for women’s campaigns. Changes in legislatures In a special election on May 16, Democrats maintained a narrow majority in the Pennsylvania House of Delegates. As a result, the party will be able to continue to exert control over how the lower chamber of the state legislature will handle reproductive, gun, and voting rights legislation. With Republicans still holding the Pennsylvania Senate, the House could also provide an assist to Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro in budget negotiations. In House District 163, Democratic candidate

Dear Readers: Crystal Ball Senior Columnist Louis Jacobson is analyzing several categories of state-level races for us this cycle. This article represents his third and final effort to handicap the competitive contests for secretary of state and attorneys general across the country. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — In our final pre-election handicapping of key down-ballot contests this year, we see 11 secretary of state races and 12 state attorney general races as competitive. — The races attracting the most attention nationally, understandably, are those that involve Republican nominees who have questioned the legitimacy of the 2020 presidential election. Whether such candidates can win this year in such presidential battleground states as Arizona and Nevada could have a big impact on the 2024 presidential race. — It remains to be seen whether these Trump-aligned candidates can ride the Republican midterm tailwind to victory, or whether GOP voters and GOP-leaning independents decide to pick and choose which Republicans they vote for this year. The key Secretary of State and AG races Rarely before this year have down-ballot races such as secretary of state and attorney general attracted so much interest from political professionals and the general public. But

Dear Readers: Crystal Ball Senior Columnist Louis Jacobson is analyzing several categories of state-level races for us this cycle. Today, he is updating his assessment of the race for state legislative control. He has also analyzed contests for attorney general, secretary of state, state supreme court, and statewide ballot issues. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — In what we expect to be our final pre-election look at the nation’s legislatures, we are shifting our ratings for 7 chambers. We are moving 5 chambers in the Democrats’ direction, while 2 move in the Republicans’ direction. — It’s important not to read too much into the imbalance in these shifts favoring the Democrats. The shifts reflect 2 major changes in the political environment since our last handicapping, which was published in May: the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe vs. Wade, and GOP primaries that anointed polarizing candidates aligned with former President Donald Trump for key top-of-the-ballot contests. — Overall, the landscape for competitive state legislative chambers this year is fairly neutral, with Republicans playing defense in 7 of the 15 chambers we see as competitive and Democrats playing defense in 8. The Toss-up category includes 7 chambers, 3

Dear Readers: Join the Center for Politics next Tuesday, Oct. 18, for “Hacking Our Elections.” Center for Politics Scholar and leading election security expert Chris Krebs heads up this urgent and timely panel discussion on how the same threats that created Jan. 6 are still with us today. Joining Chris will be Center for Politics Scholar and former Rep. Barbara Comstock (R, VA-10), Renee DiResta of the Stanford Internet Observatory, and UVA Robertson Professor of Media Studies Siva Vaidhyanathan. The panel, which will be held from 4 p.m. to 5 p.m. at the UVA Rotunda Dome Room, is free and open to the public with advanced registration; it also will be streamed at this link. Crystal Ball Senior Columnist Louis Jacobson is analyzing several categories of state-level races for us this cycle. Today, he is looking at a variety of ballot measures that voters across the country will weigh in on. He has also analyzed contests for attorney general, secretary of state, state legislature, and state supreme court. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — As happens every 2 years, voters across the country find a variety of ballot measures to vote on in 2022. — The most

Dear Readers: Crystal Ball Senior Columnist Louis Jacobson is analyzing several categories of state-level races for us this cycle. Today, he is doing his second assessment of this year’s attorney general races. He has also analyzed secretary of state, state legislative, and state supreme court races. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — This year, 30 states will hold elections for attorney general. Historically, these positions have been influential, albeit in a low-profile way, because of their responsibility for spearheading criminal and civil cases in their states. — Our analysis suggests that 18 AG races should be clear holds for the incumbent party: 9 GOP seats that are expected to remain Republican, and 9 Democratic seats that should stay in Democratic hands. — By our assessment, the remaining 12 seats will be competitive to at least some degree, with 7 of those seats currently held by Democrats and 5 held by the GOP. The competitive races, ranked in descending order from most likely to go Republican to most likely to go Democratic, are: Idaho, Texas, Georgia, Kansas, Arizona, Iowa, Wisconsin, Nevada, Minnesota, Michigan, New Mexico, and Colorado. — Currently, the GOP holds 28 attorney general’s offices to 22 for the Democrats,

Dear Readers: Crystal Ball Senior Columnist Louis Jacobson is analyzing several categories of state-level races for us this cycle. Today, he is doing his second assessment of this year’s secretary of state races, which have taken on added importance in the aftermath of the 2020 election. He has also analyzed attorney general, state legislative, and state supreme court races. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — With most primaries now complete, a majority of the nation’s competitive secretary of state races pit a Republican nominee aligned with former President Donald Trump against a relatively mainstream Democrat. — This could benefit Democrats by being able to run against less electable Republicans — or it may not matter if a Republican wave crests high enough, carrying even the most controversial Republican nominees to victory. Either way, voters in many states will face a stark choice about how elections are run in the future. — Looking at this year’s 27 secretary of state races, we find 10 that appear to be competitive between the parties, at least for now. In another 10 races, the GOP is in the driver’s seat, while in another 7 races, the Democrats have a significant edge. Updating the secretary

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Party registration can be a lagging indicator of political change, but recent changes in some states are bringing registration more in line with actual voting. — Republicans have taken the voter registration edge in states such as Florida and West Virginia somewhat recently, and Kentucky flipped to them just last week. Democrats have built bigger leads in several blue states. — Democrats hold a substantial national lead in party registration, but a lot of that has to do with the fact that a number of states, many of which are Republican-leaning, do not register voters by party. A little less than two-thirds of the states register voters by party (31 states plus the District of Columbia). — Overall, Republicans have made gains over Democrats in 19 states since summer 2018, when we last looked at these trends, while Democrats have made gains over Republicans in 12 states and the District of Columbia. There are more registered Democrats than Republicans in 17 of these states plus DC, and more registered Republicans than Democrats in 14. Party registration trends Last fall in Florida, something downright historic occurred. For the first time in the state’s modern history,

Dear Readers: Crystal Ball Senior Columnist Louis Jacobson is analyzing several categories of state-level races for us this cycle. After taking a first look at attorney general, secretary of state, and state legislative races, he is analyzing state supreme courts this week. While there are judicial elections across the country, Lou is focusing on the ones with the highest stakes, including key states like Illinois, Michigan, North Carolina, and Ohio. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — State supreme court contests often attract little public attention, but they can carry significant weight on policy, especially in an era when courts are having to weigh in on such divisive topics as abortion and election administration. — About two-thirds of the states have some type of state supreme court election on the ballot this year, but as of now, 8 states stand out as the likeliest to have at least one genuinely competitive race this fall: North Carolina, Ohio, Illinois, Montana, Michigan, Kentucky, New Mexico, and Arkansas. The top state supreme court races Among the plethora of elections being held during this midterm cycle, state supreme court contests are among the least-followed by the public, and even by political experts.

Dear Readers: Crystal Ball Senior Columnist Louis Jacobson is analyzing several categories of state-level races for us this cycle. After taking a first look at attorney general and secretary of state races, he is now assessing the battles for state legislatures this year. The Republicans have built a robust edge in overall state legislative control since the 2010 GOP wave, and they could add to it this year, although both sides are defending some competitive chambers. Abortion is a considerable wild card in the state legislative picture: The potential end of Roe vs. Wade would empower the states to decide the issue, which red and blue states will approach in immensely different ways. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE – In addition to usually facing midterm headwinds in federal races, the presidential party also often struggles in state legislative races in those years. – However, Republicans have already made such impressive state legislative gains over the past dozen years that they do not have a ton of Democratic-held chambers to target. –Republicans could plausibly flip chambers in states like Maine and Minnesota, while a better redistricting map could help Democrats in Michigan, a key battleground. 2022’s state legislative