2024 Senate

Dear Readers: Please join us this week for a pair of special Center for Politics forums, both of which are free and open to the public and will also be livestreamed. Today (Tuesday, Jan. 24) at 4 p.m., we will host the ambassador of Chile, Juan Gabriel Valdés, at the UVA Rotunda Dome Room. He will discuss the relationship between Chile and the U.S., Chile’s recent constitutional referendum, and other issues impacting Chile and the region. Tickets are available through Eventbrite, and it will be streamed at https://livestream.com/tavco/ambassadorofchile. On Friday, Jan. 27 at 2:30 p.m. at the UVA Small Special Collections Library Auditorium, Bob Woodward of the Washington Post and Robert Costa of CBS News will discuss their bestselling book on the transition from the Trump administration to the Biden administration, Peril, which is now out in paperback and will be available for sale at the event. Woodward and Costa will stay after the event to sign books. Tickets are available through Eventbrite, and it will be streamed at https://livestream.com/tavco/perilbookdiscussion. This morning, we are rolling out our first Senate ratings of the 2024 cycle. This is our only planned issue of the Crystal Ball this week, although we invite you to

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Sen. Debbie Stabenow’s (D-MI) decision to retire at the end of her term gives Democrats a liability they have not had in the last few Senate cycles: An open seat to defend in a key presidential battleground. — They arguably have a second in Arizona, too, given Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s decision to become an independent and the likelihood of Democrats nominating a credible alternative to Sinema. — Retirements are arguably easier to mitigate than they used to be because of the growing correlation between presidential and down-ballot results. But retirements can have ripple effects on the overall Senate battlefield. — Democrats still start with an edge to hold Stabenow’s seat, and the burden of proof is on Republicans to produce a strong nominee after the party had an awful election in Michigan last year. Playing defense in open seats Last week’s retirement announcement by Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) gives Democrats a liability they really have not had in the last 3 Senate election cycles: An open seat in a competitive state. In 2018, 2020, and 2022 — a full rotation of all 3 Senate classes, meaning every single seat was contested over that timeframe