2024 Senate

  Dear Readers: Join us next Wednesday, Feb. 22 for “A Conversation with Former/Future Republicans Bill Kristol and David Ramadan.” Kristol, a longtime political commentator, and Ramadan, a Center for Politics scholar and former member of the Virginia House of Delegates, will discuss the past and future of the Republican Party and their concerns about the state of our democracy. Their conversation will be held from 6:30 p.m. to 8 p.m. eastern at the Colonnade Club Solarium on the Grounds of the University of Virginia. It is free and open to the public with advanced registration through Eventbrite, and it will also be streamed at https://livestream.com/tavco/defendingdemocracytogether. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — It has been over a decade since an incumbent senator was successfully primaried in a regularly-scheduled election; though a few senators may be vulnerable, 2024 may continue that streak. — Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s (D-CA) decision to retire removed one vulnerable senator from the primary conversation; Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s (I-AZ) decision to leave the Democratic Party removed another. Among the other incumbents who are still deciding whether to run for reelection, Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT) stands out as someone who could hypothetically be vulnerable in a primary.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Senate races are increasingly converging with presidential partisanship, to the point where the huge overperformances that were so common a decade or two ago have become much less common. — Since 2000, the number of senators who have run more than 10 points ahead of their party’s presidential nominee has decreased sharply. — This trend helps explain why we currently rate Democratic-held West Virginia as Leans Republican and started off Montana and Ohio as Toss-ups. Senate race trends since 2000 Last week, when we put out our first look at the 2024 Senate map, we issued a rare rating: We started an incumbent off as an underdog. Specifically, we put the West Virginia contest in the Leans Republican category. Though Sen. Joe Manchin has not officially announced his plans, the reality is that any Democrat, even as one as successful as Manchin, faces a daunting challenge in West Virginia. Some of Manchin’s worries are state-specific. One of the (several) unexpected success stories for national Democrats last year was their showing in state legislative races: They gained governmental trifectas in several states and held their own in the overall state legislative seat count across the

Dear Readers: Please join us this week for a pair of special Center for Politics forums, both of which are free and open to the public and will also be livestreamed. Today (Tuesday, Jan. 24) at 4 p.m., we will host the ambassador of Chile, Juan Gabriel Valdés, at the UVA Rotunda Dome Room. He will discuss the relationship between Chile and the U.S., Chile’s recent constitutional referendum, and other issues impacting Chile and the region. Tickets are available through Eventbrite, and it will be streamed at https://livestream.com/tavco/ambassadorofchile. On Friday, Jan. 27 at 2:30 p.m. at the UVA Small Special Collections Library Auditorium, Bob Woodward of the Washington Post and Robert Costa of CBS News will discuss their bestselling book on the transition from the Trump administration to the Biden administration, Peril, which is now out in paperback and will be available for sale at the event. Woodward and Costa will stay after the event to sign books. Tickets are available through Eventbrite, and it will be streamed at https://livestream.com/tavco/perilbookdiscussion. This morning, we are rolling out our first Senate ratings of the 2024 cycle. This is our only planned issue of the Crystal Ball this week, although we invite you to

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Sen. Debbie Stabenow’s (D-MI) decision to retire at the end of her term gives Democrats a liability they have not had in the last few Senate cycles: An open seat to defend in a key presidential battleground. — They arguably have a second in Arizona, too, given Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s decision to become an independent and the likelihood of Democrats nominating a credible alternative to Sinema. — Retirements are arguably easier to mitigate than they used to be because of the growing correlation between presidential and down-ballot results. But retirements can have ripple effects on the overall Senate battlefield. — Democrats still start with an edge to hold Stabenow’s seat, and the burden of proof is on Republicans to produce a strong nominee after the party had an awful election in Michigan last year. Playing defense in open seats Last week’s retirement announcement by Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) gives Democrats a liability they really have not had in the last 3 Senate election cycles: An open seat in a competitive state. In 2018, 2020, and 2022 — a full rotation of all 3 Senate classes, meaning every single seat was contested over that timeframe