2026 House

History suggested Democrats would be favored to flip the House in 2026 as soon as Donald Trump clinched the presidency in 2024, Little that’s happened over the last several months calls into question that initial, gut-level assessment.

In Wisconsin, liberals kept control of the state Supreme Court with Susan's Crawford's 55%-45% win last night; neither of Florida's two House special elections were that close, although GOP performances in these deep red seats was down from what Trump got in them.

Midterm electorates are smaller, older, and less diverse -- and they often see the non-presidential party improve their share of the House vote.

The non-presidential party often picks up House seats in midterms, and as a part of it, that party’s incumbents rarely lose in midterms.

During the three Trump era presidential elections, fewer than 30 of the current House districts would have supported either party at some point. Those districts are, in aggregate, likely to play a large role in determining the House's majority in the 2026 elections.

Just 16 districts voted for one party for president and the other for House, which is the same overall and historically-low total as 2020.