2026 Senate

The New Hampshire Senate race gets a little more competitive with Sen. Jeanne Shaheen's (D) retirement; in Virginia, Democrats' 2024 coalition was more efficient than it was in some past years.

In 2026, Minnesota will see its first open-seat Senate contest since 2006, following Sen. Tina Smith's (D) retirement announcement. Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D) is already in the race, and we are moving our rating from Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic as the primary fields further take shape.

In the Crystal Ball's first look at the 2026 Senate races, we find that Republicans are strong, but not prohibitive, favorites to keep the chamber. Early Toss-up states include Georgia and Michigan, which are Democratic-held, and North Carolina, which Republicans hold. Democrats will probably make a serious attempt at Maine, although it starts off as Leans Republican.