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“Questioning the Constitution” Documentary Wins International Award of Excellence

“Questioning the Constitution,” a 2008 documentary produced by the University of Virginia Center for Politics and the Community Ideas Stations, has received the Award of Excellence, given annually by the International Academy of Visual Arts (IAVA). The Award of Excellence is the IAVA’s highest distinction. The organization receives more than 9,000 nominations each year for its communicator awards from companies and agencies of all sizes – giving these prizes one of the largest nomination pools in the world. The documentary “Questioning the Constitution” takes an in-depth look at constitutional reform. The film explores the development of the American Constitution, how it has been interpreted through the years, and goes on to question whether the document should be reformed. Featured commentators in “Questioning the Constitution” include UVA Center for Politics director Larry J. Sabato, former Senate Majority Leader Robert J. Dole, NAACP Chairman Julian Bond, RNC Chairman Michael Steele, ACLU President Nadine Strossen, and constitutional scholar A.E. Dick Howard. The film was made by Mason Mills, the award-winning producer/director of “Wilder: An American First,” which he also created in partnership with the Center for Politics. The IAVA is an invitation-only body consisting of top-tier professionals from a who’s who of acclaimed

UVA Center for Politics

New Jersey Governor Showdown

Before we dive into New Jersey’s surprisingly intriguing 2009 race for governor, let us premise everything that follows on the fact that any Republican running in New Jersey enters the batter’s box with two strikes, two outs, nobody on, and down two runs. Let us not kid ourselves, here. That being said, Gov. Jon Corzine is in trouble. The former Goldman Sachs CEO turned governor has experienced his share of miserable moments during the past three-plus years: from New Jersey’s 2006 government shutdown, to the Garden State Parkway and New Jersey Turnpike toll-hike fiasco–not to mention the whole almost-dying-for-not-wearing-a-seatbelt incident (to any kids reading this: going 90 miles-per-hour on the Garden State Parkway is not a good idea, especially without a seatbelt). The election year budget proposal that was recently released provides no rest for the politically weary, as the economic meltdown has created a $7 billion budget shortfall and it keeps getting larger by the month. In an attempt to reign in the deficit, Corzine has been forced to include in his budget such wildly-popular proposals as tax increases, elimination of property tax rebates, and involuntary unpaid furloughs for state employees. (And no, those really aren’t popular). As a

Joseph Figueroa

High Interest Election, Media Boon

Editor’s Note: This piece is an excerpt from the new book, edited by Larry Sabato, The Year of Obama: How Barack Obama Won the White House. The American public was more interested in the 2008 campaign than in any other in over twenty years, and attention to news reached new heights. Sixty percent of registered voters reported that they followed campaign news very closely the week before the election, compared to 52 percent in 2004 and 39 percent in 2000. An estimated 71.474 million people watched the election returns on fourteen television networks, while countless others followed online. The collective sense that the result of this campaign would be momentous for the nation, the openness of a race that did not include an incumbent president or vice president, and a dramatic story line compelled people to engage. Democrats were more interested in following campaign news than Republicans. The Democratic nominating process was more dramatic and drawn out than the Republican contest. In addition, Democrats were less familiar with Obama, who was a relatively new face on the political scene, than Republicans were with McCain, a war hero and national political figure who had sought the nomination before. There was intense

Diana Owen

OBAMA AND THE REDEFINITION OF PRESIDENTIAL COATTAILS

Barack Obama showed considerable vote-getting ability in last fall’s presidential election, with a clear-cut win in both popular and electoral votes. But when it came to presidential coattails, his were of the same modest length of many of his immediate predecessors. A tally of the 2008 presidential vote by congressional district shows that Obama drew a higher percentage of the vote than only 36 Democratic House winners in their districts–a common measurement of coattail pull. It is a total that represents just 14 percent of the 257 House Democrats elected in November. And it pales when compared to some of the big Democratic and Republican presidential winners of the last half century or so. Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1956, Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, and Richard Nixon in 1972, all ran ahead of more than 100 victorious House candidates of their own party. Only one candidate since then (Ronald Reagan in 1984) has run ahead of more than 40. It is no secret why presidential coattails have diminished dramatically in length. Recent winners have not won by the massive landslides that Ike, LBJ or Nixon did–with popular vote margins of 15 percentage points or more. Obama’s 7 percentage point victory

Rhodes Cook

Independent Voters and the President: Myths and Realities

The importance of partisanship in contemporary American politics is widely recognized. Among the public as well as political leaders, party divisions run deep and it is increasingly clear that the arrival of a new President in Washington has done little to change that fundamental reality. Not only are Democrats and Republicans in Congress sharply divided over President Obama’s legislative program, but recent national polls have revealed a deep split in evaluations of the President’s performance within the public. According to data assembled by the Pew Poll, the 61 point difference in approval of President Obama’s job performance between Democrats and Republicans in early March was the largest for any recent president after such a short time in office, including George W. Bush. The sharp partisan divide in public evaluations of President Obama’s performance has led several influential political commentators, including the National Journal’s Charlie Cook and Amy Walter and the Washington Post’s Dan Balz, to point to independent voters as the key to the President’s ability to maintain his political effectiveness. With Democrats and Republicans dividing along party lines, they argue that Mr. Obama’s overall popularity, and therefore his influence in Congress, will depend on the views of the large

Alan I. Abramowitz

The GOP in New York: Going the Way of the Dinosaurs?

The first special congressional election of the Obama administration took place March 31 in a Republican corner of Democratic New York. But the race in the Hudson River Valley for the seat of newly minted Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand produced no immediate winner. It remains undecided and will be settled in the days ahead after the count of several thousand absentee ballots. For the time being, that denies Democrats the opportunity to claim voter approval of the Obama agenda or Republicans the chance to argue their party is on the comeback trail. Yet as important as the outcome of the special election is to each of the parties nationally, it is just as significant for New York Republicans, as they seek to rebound from what is arguably their lowest point in history. Through much of the last century, Empire State Republicans defined a whole wing of the GOP. There were “Wall Street Republicans,” then “Rockefeller Republicans,” named in honor of the state’s pugnacious, long-serving governor, who combined moderation on social issues with a penchant for big government projects. In short, a Rockefeller Republican was a liberal Republican. A half century or so ago, when Nelson Rockefeller was in his heyday,

Rhodes Cook

Diverging Coalitions: The Transformation of the American Electorate

The election of America’s first black president has been widely hailed as an historic event. However, much less attention has been paid to the demographic trends which made that event possible and which will continue to affect elections and politics in the United States far into the future. In this article I examine those trends and their consequences for the American party system. Without question, the most important change in the composition of the American electorate over the past several decades has been a steady increase in the proportion of nonwhite voters. This trend has been evident for at least 50 years but it has accelerated in the last quarter century. It is a result of increased immigration from Asia, Africa and Latin America, higher birth rates among minority groups, and increased registration and turnout among African-Americans, Hispanics, and other nonwhite citizens. Moreover, this shift is almost certain to continue for the foreseeable future based on generational differences in the racial and ethnic composition of the current electorate and Census Bureau projections of the racial and ethnic makeup of the American population between now and 2050. Figure 1 displays data from national exit polls on the changing racial composition of

Alan I. Abramowitz

Bill Richardson

New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson could very well represent the changing face of American politics. Hispanics and Latinos are the fastest growing ethnic group in the United States, and both the Democrats and the Republicans will be well served to begin attracting more candidates from these burgeoning populations. Political analysts tend to see corollaries between Richardson’s campaign at the nomination, and that of former President Bill Clinton in 1992: both popular governors of important swing states, both starting off with very low poll numbers before the Iowa caucus, both attractive to minorities. The question for Richardson will be if he can manufacture the same kind of success Clinton found, and if he can do it in time for Iowa. Richardson has also been positioning himself to get on no one’s bad side, possibly in hopes of receiving a vice presidential nomination. Biography Born to a Mexican mother, and raised until he was 13 in Mexico City, Richardson has been using his Hispanic background to his advantage: at the Telemundo Spanish language debate, he asked, in Spanish, if he could give his responses in Spanish. He has extensive foreign policy experience, having worked with the Department of State in the 1970s,

UVA Center for Politics

Alan Keyes

Analysis coming soon. Biography Biography coming soon.

UVA Center for Politics

Barack Obama

Ever since his keynote address at the 2004 Democratic Convention, many have viewed Illinois Senator Barack Obama as the next big thing in the Democratic Party. Even though he is only halfway through his first term as a Senator, Obama is being touted as a charismatic fresh face with a capacity for leadership, and as a candidate that can overcome some of the Red State/Blue State distinctions that became so prevalent during the 2004 presidential election. His strategy has turned slightly from its original pure optimism, as Obama and his strategists are coming to grips with the fact that beating Hillary Clinton will require getting into the nitty-gritty of politicking. His presence in the Midwest, as well as his appeal to college-age, politically active Democrats, could be the factors that turn the tide in his favor. Biography Born in Hawaii to multi-racial parents, Obama has had a unique path to his campaign for the presidency. He was the first black editor of the Harvard Law Review, but focused on civil rights law instead of the corporate world. He was elected to the Illinois State Senate in 1997, and served until his campaign for the U.S. Senate in 2004, in which

UVA Center for Politics

Chris Dodd

There’s obscure, and then there’s Chris Dodd. Despite his seasoned track record as a Senator from Connecticut, Dodd trails significantly in the polls, both nationally and in every early primary state. Dodd’s position in the field isn’t lost on him, as he’s quipped that the Presidency “is the only job I know of in America where you don’t have to have any references.” Unless he can swing an unprecedented turnaround in support, the Presidency is also a job that Dodd stands little to no chance of getting, at least this time around. However, much like Joe Biden, his colleague from Delaware, Dodd could be someone’s choice for Vice President, as his distinguished career in Congress could bolster a candidate with less experience. Biography Dodd’s career in the Senate began in 1980, after he had spent the previous six years in the House. He was inspired in his teen years by the late John F. Kennedy, and spent two years with the Peace Corps. In addition to his tenure in the Senate, Dodd also served as the chairman of the Democratic National Committee from 1994-97.

UVA Center for Politics

Dennis Kucinich

If the Democratic primary was purely about who was the most liberal on the issues, Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich would surely be leading the pack. He supports an immediate withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq, as well as abolishing the death penalty and banning possession of handguns. Unfortunately for him, not all Democratic voters are as liberal as those of Ohio’s 10th Congressional District. Kucinich is stuck in single-digit polling, and remains essentially an afterthought to much of the nominating process. Even though he won’t win the Democratic nomination, he should enjoy his time as the darling of Jon Stewart/Stephen Colbert-style media. Biography Kucinich began his career in the local politics of Cleveland, serving as a councilman from 1969-73, and mayor from 1977-79. After nearly two decades out of politics, he was elected to the House of Representatives from a redrawn Ohio 10th in 1996, a capacity in which he’s served for more than a decade. He ran for the Democratic nomination in 2004, stirring up controversy after ABC pulled its correspondents from his campaign.

UVA Center for Politics

Duncan Lee Hunter

This long-time House of Representatives member (first elected in 1980) is hoping to make the leap to the executive branch, and in doing so become the first member of the House to jump straight from Capitol Hill to the White House since James Garfield in 1880. Unfortunately, Duncan Hunter‘s poll numbers remain in single digits nation-wide, and sometimes hit as low as 1% in key early states. Hunter has focused on immigration during his candidacy, going so far as to support the erection of a 700-mile fence between the United States and Mexico. He also focuses on religious issues, and has said he would expand the First Amendment to prevent groups from taking religious symbols away from public buildings. While his supporters are ardent, in a crowded primary field, he has had trouble being heard above the noise. At this point there is little chance that Hunter will ever become the hunted in the 2008 primaries. Biography Hunter served as an Airborne Ranger during the Vietnam War, earning the Bronze Star for his service. After returning from Vietnam, he went through law school and began practicing law, focusing on legal assistance to the Hispanic community in Southern California. He was

UVA Center for Politics

Fred Thompson

After toying with the media for months over whether or not he would run for the Republican nomination, Fred Thompson finally announced and many pundits had him all but penciled in to be the nominee. After the first debate, when Thompson seemed to come up short of his image as a Reagan-esque communicator, and the first FEC fundraising report, enthusiasm waned.. He no doubt has the experience (he was a U.S. Senator from 1994-2003) and the celebrity status (NBC had to pull Law and Order reruns because of equal airtime laws) to carry the Republican banner, but many have instead focused on his age (he is 65) as a disqualifier. However, he is still within striking distance in both national and Iowa primary polls, so a misstep by one of the other frontrunners could allow Thompson to regain his previous status as favorite. Biography Thompson is likely the biggest celebrity in the Republican field. His career as an actor, most notably on Law and Order, spans from 1985 to the present. Before his career on the small screen, Thompson racked up experience as a DC attorney and lobbyist, especially as minority counsel to the Senate Watergate Committee. After beginning his

UVA Center for Politics