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This long-time House of Representatives member (first elected in 1980) is hoping to make the leap to the executive branch, and in doing so become the first member of the House to jump straight from Capitol Hill to the White House since James Garfield in 1880. Unfortunately, Duncan Hunter‘s poll numbers remain in single digits nation-wide, and sometimes hit as low as 1% in key early states. Hunter has focused on immigration during his candidacy, going so far as to support the erection of a 700-mile fence between the United States and Mexico. He also focuses on religious issues, and has said he would expand the First Amendment to prevent groups from taking religious symbols away from public buildings. While his supporters are ardent, in a crowded primary field, he has had trouble being heard above the noise. At this point there is little chance that Hunter will ever become the hunted in the 2008 primaries. Biography Hunter served as an Airborne Ranger during the Vietnam War, earning the Bronze Star for his service. After returning from Vietnam, he went through law school and began practicing law, focusing on legal assistance to the Hispanic community in Southern California. He was

After toying with the media for months over whether or not he would run for the Republican nomination, Fred Thompson finally announced and many pundits had him all but penciled in to be the nominee. After the first debate, when Thompson seemed to come up short of his image as a Reagan-esque communicator, and the first FEC fundraising report, enthusiasm waned.. He no doubt has the experience (he was a U.S. Senator from 1994-2003) and the celebrity status (NBC had to pull Law and Order reruns because of equal airtime laws) to carry the Republican banner, but many have instead focused on his age (he is 65) as a disqualifier. However, he is still within striking distance in both national and Iowa primary polls, so a misstep by one of the other frontrunners could allow Thompson to regain his previous status as favorite. Biography Thompson is likely the biggest celebrity in the Republican field. His career as an actor, most notably on Law and Order, spans from 1985 to the present. Before his career on the small screen, Thompson racked up experience as a DC attorney and lobbyist, especially as minority counsel to the Senate Watergate Committee. After beginning his

Former First Lady Hillary Clinton might be getting tired of that spotlight: it sure is bringing a whole lot of heat. The front-runner for the nomination even before she announced, Clinton has enjoyed huge leads in national polls over all of the other Democratic candidates. No single challenger has emerged from the “Anybody But Hillary” camp, which has allowed Clinton to keep charging forward without worrying too much about who is in her rearview mirror. But the same factors that have made her the lead candidate so far (most importantly name recognition) could be her downfall: Clinton has unfavorability ratings in the upper-40s, whereas no other Democratic candidate breaks into the 30s. Biography Hillary is, of course, the wife of former President Bill Clinton. A Republican in her early years, she switched parties and campaigned for Eugene McCarthy in the 1968 Democratic primaries. She graduated from Yale Law in 1973, and worked as an attorney in Little Rock until Bill was elected to the White House. In 2000, at the end of Bill’s second term, Hillary was elected as the junior Senator from New York, a position to which she was reelected in 2006.

Senator Joe Biden of Delaware must be acutely aware of the media-driven political arena of the 21st century. Forty years ago, Biden would have been a top-tier candidate for the Democratic nomination: he’s in his sixth term in the United States Senate, and has served as chair of both the Judiciary and Foreign Relations committees. But today, he’s overshadowed by the media frenzy over the dynamic of the “Big Three” of Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and John Edwards. Barring a major collapse from all of the front-runners, odds are Biden will be competing mostly for the vice-presidential nomination, a role in which he could boost a top-of-the-ticket candidate who may face knocks for being inexperienced. Biography Biden was first elected to the Senate in 1972, after serving as a county councilman in Delaware. That same year, his first wife and infant daughter were killed in a car accident; Biden remarried in 1977. From 1987-95, he chaired the Senate Committee on the Judiciary. He has twice been chair of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, a committee on which he has sat for his entire Senate career.

It appears that John Edwards has built his campaign strategy with a Field of Dreams mindset: “If you build it, they will come.” Edwards has tried to do just that, having spent the three years since his unsuccessful 2004 vice-presidential campaign building his presence and organization in Iowa, with the hopes of voters coming to him in their respective caucuses in January. He and Barack Obama are seen as the most viable challengers to the juggernaut of Hillary Clinton, but the two may be splitting the support needed to overcome Clinton. Edwards has been hammering on a populist message of economic equality that mirrors that of his political role model, Robert Kennedy. If that message manifests itself in a caucus victory, then for his campaign, heaven may actually be Iowa. Biography Edwards rose to prominence as a trial attorney in Raleigh, NC, famous for winning a number of high-profile lawsuits. He and his family have endured a number of tragedies: his 16-year old son was killed in a car accident in 1996, and his wife Elizabeth was diagnosed with breast cancer in 2004. Edwards was elected to the Senate in 1998, and was responsible for deposing several witnesses during the

What a roller coaster ride it has been for Arizona Senator John McCain. When campaign fever began for the 2008 cycle, McCain was the Republican frontrunner. Through the summer of 2007, he appeared almost down and out, struggling through slumping poll numbers and a true financial crisis. Already, however, McCain appears to be back on the right track, and fighting his way back toward the top of the heap in the Republican nomination process. His unwavering support for the war in Iraq and his willingness to stand by President Bush with regards to immigration policies have provoked criticism from some quarters, but McCain has earned respect for his bipartisan cooperation during his Senate career, as well as for the sacrifices he made as a POW for six years during the Vietnam War. His weakest flank, appeal to Christian conservatives, was shored up significantly by an endorsement from former Republican candidate Sam Brownback. McCain’s centrist appeal also may help him win over those Republicans whose main focus is simply beating the Democratic nominee in 2008. Biography Born into a military family, McCain returned from Vietnam as a hero, after spending six years as a POW. After he retired from the Navy,

He was born in Hope, Arkansas, lives in the governor’s mansion in Little Rock, and has burst onto the national scene just as primary season approaches. While we could be referring to former President Bill Clinton, the same biographical sketch fits Republican contender Mike Huckabee as well. Huckabee has cracked wise several times about the similarities between his background and that of President Clinton’s: at an early debate, he told the audience they may have heard of Hope, Arkansas, and asked them to “give it another chance.” Huckabee has also focused on drawing a contrast between himself and the two New England front-runners, Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney. Certainly Huckabee has the credentials to win over conservative Christian voters: he is, after all, an ordained Baptist minister. While once considered a long-shot for the Republican nomination, Huckabee’s combination of Southern charm and religious views has lead to a huge upswing in support in Iowa, making Hope residents optimistic that they may soon be able to boast more presidents per capita than any town in the country. Biography Huckabee has been a minister for more than 30 years, and much of his work experience has been in the ministry. He’s headed

Every nominating process needs someone to cover their party’s extreme flank, someone to take the outermost positions on key issues. For the Democrats, former Alaskan Senator Mike Gravel does just that. In an election cycle where the key issue for the Democrats will be ending the war in Iraq, Gravel is the man most vocally and vehemently opposed to continuing military operations in that country. He has the credentials for speaking out against a war: in 1971, he used various parliamentary tactics to delay passage of a bill to renew the draft for nearly 5 months, until congressional Republicans just let it die. Gravel has no chance of winning the nomination (he has yet to break out of single digits in any significant polls), but his role as the ranting old man should help keep the Democratic candidates focused on the issue they’ll need to take back the White House in 2008. Biography Gravel was born in 1930, making him far and away the oldest of the Democratic candidates. He served in the Alaskan House of Representatives for three years in the 1960s, including as the Speaker in 1965. He rose to the U.S. Senate in 1968, and retired in

In case you still had any doubts about the power of the Internet, look no further than Ron Paul to dispel those doubts. The Texas Representative has found thousands of believers in his libertarian platform online, catapulting him to impressive fundraising numbers. A hard-line fiscal conservative, Paul supports cutting back in virtually every federal department, especially the Department of Education, and bills himself as the protector of the Constitution. His message of fiscal responsibility, as well as being the only Republican who is vocally opposed to the war in Iraq (his exit strategy: “Just leave.”), have brought him much support from young, disenchanted Republican voters. Supporters’ online fundraising blitzes included a 5th of November event that brought in over $4 million. While he doesn’t have the traditional support and organization that most pundits focus on, he could still have quite an impact on such a crowded race. Biography Paul was elected to the House of Representatives from Texas in 1976, and has served three distinct terms since then: 1976 to 1977, 1979 to 1985, and 1997 to the present. He was also the Libertarian Party’s presidential nominee in 1988. Paul served in the Air Force, and later the Air National

Can America’s Mayor become America’s Chief Executive? Supporters of former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani sure hope so. Giuliani’s strategy has centered around projecting an image of strong leadership, drawing on his experience in the aftermath of 9/11, especially on matters of national security and the war on terror. Perhaps the biggest obstacles to Giuliani running away with the Republican nomination are his moderate to liberal stances on social issues. With so much of the clout of the Republican Party (especially that portion of the party that votes most regularly in primaries) resting with Christian conservatives, Giuliani has found it difficult to draw the entire support of the party around him. Still, he has steadily pulled away from his nearest competitors in national polls and he’s hoping his presence in New England will secure the New Hampshire primary, allowing him to ride that momentum through Super Tuesday and on to the Republican nomination. Biography Giuliani was the U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York from 1983-89, and used his experience cracking down on organized crime and drugs to ascend to mayor of New York City. From 1994-2001, Giuliani rose to national prominence in that position, cleaning up

Tommy Tancredo had decided to put all his eggs in one basket, concentrating solely on his presidential campaign and announcing he will retire from the House of Representative at the end of this term. Concentrating on one thing at a time seems to be a thing with this Colorado Representative, who has staked his political platform on one main pillar: immigration. He wears only white shirts and sees himself as the most conservative candidate in the race, opposing almost all gay rights and vowing to appoint strict constructionist judges. The American Conservative Union agrees with Tancredo’s claims, giving him the highest rating of any presidential candidate: a lifetime rating of 99 out of 100. Tancredo and the ACU still have some convincing to do, however, as Tancredo’s results in both national and early states polls have been much less impressive. Biography Tancredo was born into a family of Italian immigrants in Colorado, and graduated from the University of North Colorado. During the Reagan administration, he served as a regional representative for the Department of Education, and was later elected to the House of Representatives in 1999. Tancredo and his family live in Littleton, Colorado, site of the 1999 Columbine shootings.

New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson could very well represent the changing face of American politics. Hispanics and Latinos are the fastest growing ethnic group in the United States, and both the Democrats and the Republicans will be well served to begin attracting more candidates from these burgeoning populations. Political analysts tend to see corollaries between Richardson’s campaign at the nomination, and that of former President Bill Clinton in 1992: both popular governors of important swing states, both starting off with very low poll numbers before the Iowa caucus, both attractive to minorities. The question for Richardson will be if he can manufacture the same kind of success Clinton found, and if he can do it in time for Iowa. Richardson has also been positioning himself to get on no one’s bad side, possibly in hopes of receiving a vice presidential nomination. Biography Born to a Mexican mother, and raised until he was 13 in Mexico City, Richardson has been using his Hispanic background to his advantage: at the Telemundo Spanish language debate, he asked, in Spanish, if he could give his responses in Spanish. He has extensive foreign policy experience, having worked with the Department of State in the 1970s,

Final House Predictions: The 20 Late Breakers AZ-01 – Toss-up – Rep. Rick Renzi (R) will win reelection over Ellen Simon (D). The Crystal Ball knows that Renzi had no problem solidifying his base in the 2004 election, but it wasn’t all that long ago he scored a narrow open seat victory in this marginal district. Renzi has received some bad press over the past few weeks concerning personal land dealings; the allegations won’t be sorted out until after the election, but we still predict Renzi will escape with a narrow win. >>> Read more CA-11 – Toss-up – Jerry McNerney (D) will unseat Rep. Richard Pombo (R). Our sources on the ground tell us that momentum is firmly in McNerney’s court and that late campaign help from Bill Clinton and scores of environmental groups is giving Resources Committee Chair Pombo a run for his money. Schwarzenegger’s get-out-the-vote operation may yet save Pombo, but we will go out on a limb and tap McNerney to win in an upset. >>> Read more CO-04 – Toss-up – Angie Paccione (D) will unseat Rep. Marilyn Musgrave (R). Musgrave has never performed as well as a Republican should in this district, and her

A Glance Inside the Senate Crystal Ball Republican Held Seats up for Election in 2006: 15 (out of 55 held) Solid R (7) Likely R (1) Leans R (1) Toss-up (4) Leans D (2) Likely D (0) Solid D (0) IN (Lugar) AZ (Kyl) VA (Allen) MO (Talent) MT (Burns) ME (Snowe) OH (DeWine) PA (Santorum) MS (Lott) RI (Chafee) NV (Ensign) TN (OPEN) TX (Hutchison) UT (Hatch) WY (Thomas) WV (Byrd) WI (Kohl) NY (Clinton) NM (Bingaman) ND (Conrad) MA (Kennedy) WA (Cantwell) HI (Akaka) NE (Nelson) FL (Nelson) MN (OPEN) DE (Carper) MI (Stabenow) CT (Lieberman*) NJ (Menendez) MD (OPEN) VT (OPEN) CA (Feinstein) Solid R (0) Likely R (0) Leans R (0) Toss-up (1) Leans D (5) Likely D (1) Solid D (11) Democratic Held Seats up for Election: 18 (out of 45 held) The Brutal B, September 2006: +3 to +6 D

Bill Clinton and Mike Huckabee are not only the most famous natives of Hope, Arkansas, but they have made similar climbs up the state’s political ladder. Each lost their first bid for public office and each served multiple terms as governor before making their first run for president. An asterisk (*) indicates a special election; a pound sign (#) denotes Huckabee’s present age. (He was born on Aug. 24, 1955, almost nine years after Bill Clinton.) BILL CLINTON MIKE HUCKABEE Election Age at Election Office Sought Election Outcome Election Age at Election Office Sought Election Outcome 1974 28 U.S. House Lost 1992 37 U.S. Senator Lost 1976 30 AR Attorney General Won 1993* 38 AR Lt. Governor Won 1978 32 AR Governor Won 1998 43 AR Governor Won 1980 34 AR Governor Lost 2002 47 AR Governor Won 1982 36 AR Governor Won 2008 52# President ? 1984 38 AR Governor Won 1986 40 AR Governor Won 1990 44 AR Governor Won 1992 46 President Won 1996 50 President Won Source: CQ’s Politics in America (CQ Press).