Sabato’s Crystal Ball

Building on the success from the 2002 midterm elections, the Crystal Ball correctly predicted 97 percent of Senate races. In the first hours of election night it was clear that Republicans would enlarge their majority in the upper chamber of Congress, but three contests gave the Crystal Ball a moment of pause. As the first results filtered in from Kentucky, it looked as though Democratic challenger Daniel Mongiardo would be able to unseat one-term incumbent Republican Jim Bunning amid allegations of the senator’s deteriorating mental health. When all the votes were counted, Bunning was the victor with a narrow edge of 23,296 votes. In Alaska, the Crystal Ball thought nepotism charges would be the downfall of appointed Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski. While Bush coattails would give a healthy nudge to Murkowski’s numbers, public and private polling, as well as reports from The Last Frontier suggested that Knowles had convinced enough Alaskans to split their tickets and elect a Democrat to the Senate. While Bush garnered 151,498 votes, Murkowski only received 120,897. The Crystal Ball rated this contest as Democratic with low confidence, but that outlook proved to be off the mark with Murkowski riding the Bush wave to a second

For years, Senator Russ Feingold has proven himself as a tenacious underdog who has always beat the odds. He squeaked his way through a three-way Democratic primary with less money than his opponents by using quirky, catchy television ads as his two opponents tore each other apart. He then went on to unseat Senator Bob Kansten in 1992. Four years later, he managed to defend his newfound seat with 51 percent of the vote, weathering a nasty, negative campaign from Republican nominee, congressman Mark Neumann. Now, he faces former Army Ranger and businessman Tim Michels. As a two-term incumbent and the recipient of a late conclusion for the Republican primary, Feingold is sitting a little more easily than past campaigns. After the last campaign, when he weathered the negative onslaught by Neumann, the Wisconsin senator is battle-hardened and a proven crusader for governmental reform. Tim Michels has assaulted Feingold heavily on issues of homeland security and counterterrorism, citing Feingold’s votes against the Patriot Act and the Department of Homeland Security. With Bush polling well in Wisconsin, pushing the state into the toss-up column, Michels may ride in Bush’s coattails if the president takes Wisconsin, especially if terrorism persists as the

Aside from Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry, South Dakota Senator Tom Daschle sits atop the Republican hit list in this electoral cycle. Republicans eye him as the front man for obstructing their legislation and judicial nominees in the Senate. Now, they have a strong candidate gunning for Daschle, former Congressman John Thune, who narrowly lost his bid for the Senate against Democrat Tim Johnson by only 524 votes. Thune has been running a campaign claims that Daschle wears one face in South Dakota of bipartisanship leadership (one example is a Daschle commercial showing him embracing President Bush after the Sept. 11 attacks), while putting partisan politics above South Dakota’s interests in Washington. Particular issues that he has attacked Daschle on have included Iraq, energy policy, and the Senate minority leader’s opposition to a constitutional amendment banning desecration of the American flag. The burden ultimately lies on Thune to unseat a three-term incumbent of high national prominence. Daschle’s position has also allowed him to deliver several public goods to South Dakota from Washington. However, South Dakotans are not new to sending long-serving incumbents packing, and Daschle’s prominence has put a lot of scrutiny on his record. President Bush’s projected strong showing

With the retirement of Senator Ernest “Fritz” Hollings, the Republican Party has been poised to take this seat in one of the most conservative states in the union. After a tight primary that led to a runoff, the ball was handed to Representative Jim DeMint and the field was wide open. However, before reaching the end zone, DeMint has stumbled a few times on his own words; the question is whether or not his Democratic opponent, Inez Tenenbaum, can catch him. Tenenbaum, the state’s Superintendent of Education, has mostly been the recipient of DeMint’s bad fortune. She has also been handed several opportunities to slam DeMint, who supported overhauling the federal tax code and replacing it with a 23 percent sales tax, which Tenenbaum has hounded him over. DeMint more recently damaged himself with comments stating that gays, lesbians, or single mothers with live-in boyfriends should not teach in public schools. These slip-ups have given Tenenbaum a heavy political arsenal to assault DeMint. However, the Tenenbaum campaign has been plagued with its own problems. She was slow to get out her first television ad, which was a response ad to Republican attacks, rather than a biographical piece to introduce herself

In a state so closely divided, Republican Arlen Specter’s bid for reelection against Democratic challenger Joe Hoeffel has important implications for Pennsylvania, the make-up of the Senate, and possibly the presidential election. Specter had earlier in the year encountered some rough going on the campaign trail with a very close call—by the standards of a 24-year incumbent backed by some very powerful political forces—against Republican primary challenger, Congressman Pat Toomey. Now less than a month away from the election, Specter maintains a suitable 20 point lead in the polls, 53 percent to 33 percent (Strategic Vision (R) poll; conducted 9/27-29/04). As a moderate Republican, Specter is a dying breed in the GOP. The support that President Bush gave him—which ultimately put him over the top in the primary—likely stemmed more from Republican desires to hold the Senate seat–many agree that Toomey would have been too conservative to be safely elected–and to prevent a strong Democratic candidate from aiding John Kerry in the Pennsylvania presidential contest. Going against the GOP line—especially on the abortion issue—has left many unwavering conservatives, particularly pro-life Christian social conservatives, feeling alienated, which could cause some defection to the farther-right Constitution Party candidate Jim Clymer. As of

With the retirement of Republican senator Don Nickles, an interesting contest has broken out between two self-described outsiders: physician and former Representative Tom Coburn for the Republicans, and Representative Brad Carson for the Democrats. Several factors have nudged this race left and right, but have eventually leveled out right down the middle. Tom Coburn entered with several demographic advantages –the most obvious one is that Oklahoma is a predominantly Republican state. The Sooner State has not had a Democratic senator since David Boren retired his seat in 1994 and it is a solid state for George W. Bush. Furthermore, Coburn’s congressional district encompassed what is now about 75 percent of Brad Carson’s congressional district, providing the Republican a foothold on his opponent’s home turf. His populist rhetoric and moderate voting record in the House have helped balance his rather conservative ideology. In spite of being a former Republican Congressman, he has established himself as a maverick who has railed against the growing budget deficit. There are several factors that have helped the Democratic challenger in this race. He has managed to separate himself from national Democrats by criticizing John Kerry’s stand on the war in Iraq. Carson has managed to

With the upcoming Nov. 2 elections, Tar Heels have more on their minds than the presidential race. John Kerry’s running mate, Senator John Edwards, who upon accepting his vice-presidential bid vacated his seat in the Senate, leaves North Carolina voters with a choice between two replacements: Democrat Erskine Bowles and Republican Richard Burr. Three key issues dominate the race: jobs, education, and healthcare. Given North Carolina’s voting history, this year’s race promises to be tight. An early October poll conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research Inc., indicates a narrowing gap between the two candidates, with Bowles capturing 45 percent, Burr securing 44 percent, and undecided voters comprising 11 percent of the sample. Across the state, Bowles, who lost the last Senate race to Elizabeth Dole by a wide margin, now has a strong lead in the Triangle, his home region of Charlotte, and southeastern North Carolina. His opponent Burr, on the other hand, is favored in his home region of the Triad, as well as the Northeast and the mountains. Over the last four years, approximately 80,000 people have lost jobs in North Carolina’s manufacturing, textile and furniture industries, and thus it is no surprise that the most critical issue

Missourians, as you may have heard from pundits, have the unique ability to refer to their home as a “microcosm” of American Politics—at least in presidential races. For over the past century, Missouri voters have sided correctly with every presidential contest victor, save one: Adlai Stevenson in 1956. The balanced yet uncertain political atmosphere makes it a target for campaign stops, television ads, and massive infusions of campaign money and the hoopla this year has kept the battle over one of Missouri’s Senate seats largely under the radar of many outside of the Show-Me State. In this most unusual of election cycles now in its final weeks, it is becoming increasingly unclear whether Missouri will remain a predictor of presidents—and what effect the race for the White House will have on this Senate race. Senator Christopher “Kit” Bond was first elected to the Senate in 1986 in a narrow contest many say hinged mostly on a negative campaign ad run by his opponent. Regarded as one of the GOP’s moderate senators, Bond has championed many populace causes; particularly urban redevelopment—such strong support for urban organizations and small businesses that aid inner-city economies earned him the Democratic mayor of Kansas City’s

With Louisiana’s open primary system, the slate of candidates facing voters on Election Day isn’t as simple as one Democrat against one Republican. Any number of candidates from any party may enter the race, but to be declared the winner, one must secure a majority of votes. In a race with seven official candidates–four of which have a legitimate shot at winning–eclipsing 50 percent of the vote may not be that easy. David Vitter is the lone Republican in the field, and thus he has the best chance of winning outright on Nov. 2. Three Democrats round out the four contenders: Chris John, John Kennedy, and Arthur Morrell. David Vitter is a three-term U.S. Congressman from Metairie, who has served on the House Appropriations Committee and the House Republican Policy Committee. He has worked on such issues as national missile defense, HMO and prescription drug reform, and Social Security. Vitter’s platform is entitled “Fighting for our Future,” and focuses on programs for Louisiana as well as the nation. He recently was endorsed by former governor Charles “Buddy” Roemer. Chris John is also a U.S. Congressman, finishing his fourth term representing the seventh district of the Bayou State. He has served

With his failed bid for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2004, Senator Bob Graham of Florida announced his retirement from the United States Senate. The political juggernaut of Florida who won his last two races for the Senate with at least 62 percent of the vote is now gone; the Democrats and Republicans are now in a heated struggle to take the seat polls have in a deadlock. The Republicans look to break the Democratic monopoly on Senate seats in a state that demographically tends to be Republican. After challenging and late primary contests, two candidates emerged: former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Mel Martinez for the Republicans and former state Education Commissioner and University of South Florida President Betty Castor. The campaign has remained tight in spite of the sudden drop in undecided voters, which has dropped from 21 percent on Oct. 5 to 5 percent on Oct. 7. Some polls have the race in a dead heat; others give Castor a slight advantage. The latest poll numbers from the Tallahassee Democrat show both polling at 45 percent of likely voters. The issue that has dominated this election has been terrorism. Mel Martinez has made an issue of

The race for Colorado’s open Senate seat, being vacated by republican Ben Campbell, pits Democrat Ken Salazar against Republican Pete Coors. Colorado is traditionally a Republican stronghold, but nothing could be farther from the truth this year. Most polls in the state show a close race, with the latest poll, compiled by Survey USA, having the race tied at 48 percent. You might recognize the name Pete Coors. He is great-grandson of Adolph Coors, who started the Golden brewery in 1873. Needless to say, Mr. Coors has no problem with name recognition in Colorado. The Coors name appears on everything from beer cans in the local grocery store to the Colorado Rockies’s baseball stadium, Coors Field. Coors is running on a platform of traditional family values, tax reform, and a strong hand in the war on terror. While he believes we should not second-guess the president now that we know about the unlikelihood of weapons of mass destruction existing, he does believe the outcome of the vote that gave President Bush the authority to go to war would have been different. Coors is also vehemently opposed to gay marriage, however he has been criticized as a result of Coors beer

It has been thirty years since the state of Alaska elected a Democrat to the Senate, but the outcome of this year’s Senate race is anything but certain for the GOP. The seat is currently held by Republican Lisa Murkowski, who was appointed by her father, Frank Murkowski, who won the governor’s mansion in 2002 and appointed her to his former spot in the Senate. This was the first step that turned Alaskans a bit sour toward the junior Senator from Alaska. Charges of nepotism have given Murkowski a disadvantage, in what is already a historically precarious position; only forty percent of Senators whom have been appointed in modern American history have survived their first bid to hold on to their seat, and Murkowski faces a formidable foe in former governor Tony Knowles. Furthermore, the Murkowski name has lost its luster among Alaskan conservatives. Lisa Murkowski, while in the state house of representatives, voted to approve increases on the alcohol tax to make it the highest in the country. She was also one of five Republicans who voted against a bill restricting publicly funded abortions. She declares that she is pro-life except for cases of rape, incest, or endangerment of