Sabato’s Crystal Ball

We are a little stubborn at the Crystal Ball. With only a couple of exceptions, we liked our original Vice-presidential picks from earlier in the year. Look, no one – not even your Crystal Ball using a ouiji board at a séance – can get into John Kerry’s head, where the decision will ultimately be made, with advice from his VEEP guru, Jim Johnson – a super-discreet guy who, unlike Dick Cheney, will not choose himself for the honor. So all we can do is say which candidates make the most sense for Kerry. Our ultimate, fundamental criterion is that Kerry wants to win above all and therefore he will select the person best able to help him do that. Sure, there will be talk about how he put political considerations aside and just picked the individual best able to be president if need be. Uh huh…that’s what they all say. The name of the game is the Electoral College, and the VEEP Lotto winner surely will be someone who can bring a chunk of electoral votes to the Democratic column, right? Yes, if the process is rational. Right away, this filter eliminates loads of great candidates, whose states are

There have been 26 presidential elections over the last hundred years. In exactly half of them (13), the incumbent president or incumbent president’s party has had three or four net electoral “pluses” in its column (using the simple scale outlined above, taking all three election factors into account. Note that, in the Crystal Ball’s scale here, voters punish incumbents harshly for bad times, while rewarding incumbents for good times less emphatically. This represents the intersection of American history with human nature. Thus, we give two pluses for an excellent economy, but four minuses for a very poor economy, and so forth.) The incumbent party won all 13 of the contests where it had amassed three to four net pluses, with 8 of these 13 elections producing landslide victories. In addition, there were four elections in the 26 total where the incumbent president or his party had one or two net “pluses”, and the incumbent party won three of these four. (Yes, Al Gore is the only exception, a fact that explains why just about every senior Democratic official sighed with relief when Gore bowed out of the 2004 race on December 15, 2002.) That leaves 9 elections where the incumbent

The Crystal Ball is revealing its age with this headline, recalling a semi-forgettable 1960s-era film starring Spencer Tracy and Milton Berle. But no title better sums up the tumultuous foreign and domestic campaign world we face in 2004. Every political analyst is torn, trying to decide whether Iraq or 9/11 or jobs or gas prices or something else will be the critical issue that will decide the election in November. Just when we think we have a handle on reality, the world turns again. IRAQ: Bush’s Vietnam? Things couldn’t be grimmer in the U.S.-occupied country that is starting to look like Vietnam without the jungle. So you think Vietnam is too strong an analogy? Then go back to the newsmagazines of the time – say around 1966 and 1967 – and read all the “rosy scenarios” and “light at the end of the tunnel” pronouncements from President Johnson, Defense Secretary McNamara, and their cohorts. Attention President Bush, Secretary Rumsfeld, et al.: the similarities are scary. The young Crystal Ball rolled through the Vietnam era and remembers. Think 1968. Hubert Humphrey was LBJ’s surrogate, and despite HHH’s best efforts to put some distance between his Vietnam policy and that of Johnson,

What a difference a letter makes: E or I. John Kerry has to contend with Ralph Nader in November, and even in his diminished political state, it is possible that the longtime consumer advocate will make a difference in the election. Still, the Crystal Ball guesses that Nader will receive less than 1 percent of the national vote when the 2004 ballots are cast — a far cry from the 2.7 percent Nader achieved in 2000. Thus, Kerry’s ’04 problem is perhaps a third of Al Gore’s ’00 problem, now that Democrats and liberal Independents understand that Nader could produce Dubya II as he arguably helped to produce Dubya I. (Should Nader get the Green Party endorsement this summer, his likely November vote proportion will increase, and we’ll revisit the topic then.) From the perspective of March, Nader is probably manageable for John Kerry, as electoral difficulties go. Not so for George W. Bush’s nadir. Bush’s ratings have come crashing down to earth, headed for basement level, in the first quarter of 2004. The president is at the nadir of his administration, viewed from the perspective of public popularity. Bush-bashing by all the Democrats and the press has taken a

Take a look at the Crystal Ball’s latest analysis of John Kerry’s likely choices for vice president and the table of other possible Veeps. Look at our new Kerry Veep leader: Indiana U.S. Sen. and two-term Gov. Evan Bayh. Why? All the buzz today is about John Edwards filling out the Kerry ticket. But Edwards is very unlikely to win his home state of North Carolina in November; he cannot bring any other Southern state to the table either; his National Journal ratings are now almost as liberal as Kerry’s, so he cannot moderate the liberal Kerry; the personal chemistry between Kerry and Edwards is not strong; Edwards would outshine Kerry as a stump campaigner by a mile, and the Veep cannot outshine the Prez candidate during the campaign; and finally, Edwards brings no complimentary strength in the critical fields of national security and the economy to the ticket. So what about Evan Bayh? While currently a senator, Bayh brings the executive experience Kerry lacks as a highly successful governor. Bayh is a modest – even humble – individual who would never try to outshine the presidential nominee. Bayh’s image is perfect: from his picture-charming young family to his boyish

Understandably, everybody is convinced that the November election will be another squeaker like 2000. Maybe it will be — but history suggests otherwise. The last time the United States had two extremely close presidential elections in a row was in the 1880s. In 1884, Grover Cleveland (D) defeated James G. Blaine (R) by a mere 23,000 votes out of over 10 million cast. (Electorally, it was also close: 219 to 182.) In 1888, Cleveland was ousted by Republican Benjamin Harrison by an Electoral College vote of 233 to 168, even though Cleveland had gained a popular vote advantage of 95,000, out of a total of over 11 million cast. In 1892, Cleveland won his second term on his second try, and rather easily – by a full 3 percentage points over Harrison (365,000 votes out of about 12 million cast, and 277 to 145 in the Electoral College). The nation actually had four close elections in a row, starting in 1876 with the famously disputed election between Republican Rutherford B. Hayes and Democrat Samuel J. Tilden (decided by an Electoral College vote of 185 to 184). Then in 1880, Republican James A. Garfield won a true popular vote squeaker, by

You have to go back to the Southern Super Tuesday of early March 1988 to find a primary day as BIG as this one, both in geographic spread and political impact. Only Georgia represents the South, while three behemoths dominate the voting: California, New York, and Ohio (the latter state where the November election might be won or lost for George W. Bush). With Edwards truly competing only in Georgia, Ohio, and Minnesota, Kerry was nearly guaranteed six or seven of the 10 March 2 states. Sure, most of the states were located in his native Northeast. So what? As the results pour in, Kerry’s campaign has delivered from coast to coast – and with the Massachusetts senator triumphing in nine of 10 states (losing only Vermont to Howard Dean – what a sweet thing for the home folks to do for their former chief executive!), the Democratic nomination unquestionably appears to be Kerry’s. In the face of this avalanche of Kerry votes, John Edwards has chosen the wise course of action: withdrawal of his bid as of March 3. Thus, Edwards has avoided a most unpleasant fate: campaigning himself out of any chance to be on the ticket and

Your Crystal Ball started off the New Year by looking at possible Democratic vice presidential candidates. It’s time for an update because much has changed, not least the fact that we have a better idea of the likely identity of the presidential nominee. Who can best help John Kerry, and why? Which vice-presidential candidates have so far played their cards right, and which have played them wrong? Who is on the way up, who’s headed down? The Crystal Ball has some answers. But First… Will Bush-Cheney Become Bush- ______? History has a sense of humor, and it may be playing another trick. Reportedly in 1992, a concerned presidential son (George W. Bush) approached his father (President George H.W. Bush) and strongly suggested that the electoral albatross that Bush Sr. had chosen in 1988 for vice president (Dan Quayle) be dropped from the reelection ticket in favor of the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Colin Powell. Bush Sr. refused, fearing the reaction among conservatives if he sent their favorite officeholder back to Indiana. (Having misread conservative lips by raising taxes, Bush Sr. was already in the doghouse with the right.) However, Bush Jr. may well have been correct.

Now that John Kerry has won clear victories in Tennessee and Virginia, on top of his resounding triumphs over the weekend in Michigan, Washington State, and Maine, the junior U.S. senator from Massachusetts is the presidential nominee-presumptive of the Democratic Party. Yes, he could make a terrible gaffe, or there could be some gigantic expose from the news media, or we might see a little buyer’s remorse down the road that costs him a state or two. But it would take a lot to deny him the nomination – so much that even the remaining candidates are having a difficult time making their case without looking for all the world like yesterday’s news or a ripe target for the late-night comedy shows. So here we are with a Bush-Kerry race, and this is what the Crystal Ball believes to be true: Motion, Rest, and the Outside Force: BUSH IS IN REAL TROUBLE. It’s difficult to say exactly how much trouble, but the lack of weapons of mass destruction, the continuing deaths of U.S. troops in Iraq, the shaky and relatively jobless recovery, and all the rest of the president’s ills have put this Bush behind the eight-ball going into his

With John Kerry’s big victories tonight in five of the seven states on Groundhog Tuesday (name courtesy of The Hotline), we are struck again by the amazing power of winning to beget more winning. A few weeks ago, Kerry had only shadow organizations in most of these states and was barely registering in their public opinion polls. Then came Kerry’s big victories in Iowa and New Hampshire. Suddenly, the blessing of Mr. Mo Mentum – an endorsement far more powerful than Al Gore or Bill Bradley – added one or two or three dozen percentage points almost everywhere, as tens of thousands of people began to see virtues in John Kerry they had never noticed before. Kerry’s friend ‘Mo’ gives us insight into three facets of our politics: One of the great social myths of American life is that Americans root for the underdog. Balderdash! AMERICANS LOVE WINNERS, and the 2004 Democratic primaries prove it so far. The big lie of the underdog is dead; long live the winners. Speaking of six-feet-under, John Kerry was as dead as the proverbial doornail in 2003 after he lost his frontrunner status, faded even in his own backyard, and fired his campaign manager.

For those of us old enough to remember the long and winding career of Richard Nixon, a strange parallel is beginning to emerge. Presidents are almost always disliked by members of the other major political party, but in American history only a few are truly hated by a large number of their partisan adversaries. In the past half-century, only two Presidents have been deeply loathed by the other party: Republican Richard Nixon and Democrat Bill Clinton. Democrats didn’t just want Nixon to lose, they wanted him banished, humiliated, and impeached. Republicans didn’t just want Clinton to lose, they wanted him banished, humiliated, and impeached. Nixon and Clinton were detested, not respected; nothing they did or could do would ever be recognized as having redeeming value by the opposition. No one yet has seriously mentioned impeachment for George W. Bush, but he has won admittance to the Nixon-Clinton category of hated presidents. The Crystal Ball happens to believe this is not fair, not wise, and not good for the nation. But it occurs from time to time because politics, and the international and domestic policy choices of presidents, stir strong emotions. More importantly, certain presidents have personal characteristics that inflame the

In the wee hours of Jan. 20, 2004, one year to Inauguration Day… After a three year build-up, the results are in, and friends, it’s a whole new campaign! Turnout total: early estimates near 125,000 So what does it mean? KERRY = COMEBACK KID John Kerry has earned the 2004 title of “The Comeback Kid,” and if the movement to him continues, he will rival Richard Nixon’s resurrection in the 1960s and Bill Clinton’s rebirth in 1992. Kerry has always looked most like a president of those in the Democratic field, but serendipity played a role here. The public reunion of the Vietnam veteran and the senator who saved his life was completely unplanned, but more electrifying than anything that happened in the last week. EDWARDS = MOVING ON UP John Edwards has almost as much reason to be pleased. Having finally caught a break with the endorsement of the Des Moines Register – a liberal paper read carefully by Democrats – Edwards became a phenomenon in the last week. Finally, the best campaigner of the post-Clinton Democratic generation has drawn the spotlight so that he can demonstrate his considerable skills. DEAN = GOODBYE TO FRONTRUNNER STATUS The Dean showing

We know, we know. The Democrats haven’t even selected their presidential nominee yet, and already the Crystal Ball is speculating wildly about THE VEEP PICK. But please consider two points in our defense. First, our presidential ratings haven’t changed very much from last month (Howard Dean still well in front – the probable though NOT certain Democratic nominee; and Republican George W. Bush the likely though NOT certain November winner). Second, political analysts are genetically hot-wired to focus on THE NEXT BIG THING. So it’s not our fault, see? Whether those two arguments hold water or not, let’s proceed. With Dick Cheney the GOP’s No. 2 again, barring health problems, only the Democrats have a “contest” – conducted almost entirely in the presidential nominee’s mind. Therefore we must mind-read. Assuming the Democratic standard-bearer is Howard Dean (a big assumption), who will be on his short list? Before we start mentioning specific individuals, the Crystal Ball wants to examine what Dean’s running-mate should look like as a biography, at least ideally: REGION: Not from the Northeast or the West Coast. If Dean can’t carry these two areas on his own, he’s in big trouble. Someone from the South, Southwest, or Midwest

In the spring of 2003, many Democratic party insiders, when forced to name the “real” frontrunner, picked John Kerry. It’s obvious why. He’s fairly experienced (on his fourth Senate term), a Vietnam vet, matinee-idol handsome, and policy polished. Did we mention fabulously wealthy, thanks to his second marriage to Teresa Heinz (who, just in time for campaign season, decided to “Bill” herself as Hillary Rodham Clinton…er, Teresa Heinz Kerry, to appeal to more traditional voters)? However, there were nagging doubts about Kerry. He wants to be the new John F. Kennedy, whose hair, state, and initials he shares. Others fear that he will simply be the new Michael Dukakis, under whom Kerry served as lieutenant governor in the early 1980’s. The primary/caucus season witnessed Kerry’s resurgence, and his ascent to the frontrunner position and now finally the nominee. For more on the developing Bush-Kerry race, check out the E-Mail Updates section. Biography John Kerry ran for Congress in 1972, but lost in a district carried by George McGovern. Following the defeat, he graduated from law school at Boston College and worked as a prosecutor. In 1984, after winning election as Lieutenant Governor in 1982 (Mike Dukakis’s runningmate), Kerry was elected

President Bush is currently unopposed for the GOP nomination. Biography George W. Bush was sworn into office January 20, 2001, after a hotly contested race for the White House in 2000. He grew up in Midland and Houston, Texas, received a bachelor’s degree from Yale University, then served in the Texas Air National Guard. President Bush received a Master of Business Administration from Harvard Business School in 1975. After beginning a career in the energy business, he worked on his father’s 1988 presidential campaign and then assembled the group that purchased the Texas Rangers baseball franchise in 1989. >He served as managing general partner of the Texas Rangers until he was elected Governor in 1994.

The past few months have been eventful and significant in the race for the White House. For George W. Bush, every indicator of political success except Iraq has been looking up. Just glance at these widely acknowledged Four North Stars of Presidential Politics: ECONOMY Almost all measures suggest the economy is now improving, perhaps even booming. The lagging indicator continues to be lost jobs in the millions – which gives Democrats hope for ’04. However, Democrats must be worried that the economy’s track appears very similar so far to 1983-84, when Ronald Reagan’s reelection campaign got a tremendous boost from a strongly recovering economy. Add to this the recently passed MEDICARE package for prescription drugs for senior citizens. At the very least this takes a big issue away from the Democrats. Moreover, it gives President Bush a lot to crow about among the largest-turnout voting age bloc. WAR AND PEACE The one very dark cloud shadowing Bush’s reelection prospects: Iraq and its terrible toll in death and terror, could easily turn into the focus of the ’04 campaign. The unpopular wars of Korea in 1952 and Vietnam in 1968 essentially ended the presidencies of Harry Truman and Lyndon Johnson, neither

The Democratic Crystal Ball Formula Candidate debates? So far, they’ve been sound and fury, signifying nothing. The real campaign is a set of very different numbers, and the Crystal Ball has crunched them. Your Crystal Ball has been studying history for decades, and puzzling over the current race for president on the Democratic side since the contest began about a year ago. So who’s ahead and likely to win the nomination? Two key questions must be answered first: (1) Which campaign factors are predictive? (2) How much does each factor matter? UPDATED DECEMBER 2, 2003: Howard Dean has widened his substantial lead a bit, mainly because John Kerry has dropped in both New Hampshire and Iowa. Dick Gephardt now claims an undisputed second place. John Edwards has moved up slightly to tie Wesley Clark. All other candidates remain in the same position. Last month the Crystal Ball unveiled its formula for predicting the eventual nominee, THE THEORY OF POLITICAL RELATIVITY… The DEMOCRATIC CRYSTAL BALL FORMULA – V=MP2 (Victory = Money times Polls and People squared) ORIGINIAL ANALYSIS, NOVEMBER 3, 2003: Candidate debates? So far, they’ve been sound and fury, signifying nothing. The real campaign is a set of very different

Bush Popularity Dive Several recent national surveys have had President Bush slipping to his all-time job-approval low, such as the CNN/Gallup/USA Today poll released Sep. 22 that had Bush at just the 50 percent approval level. Is this unusual, a product of the lagging employment rate and the disaster in Iraq? The Crystal Ball tries to think more broadly than the day-to-day headlines, because the grand sweep of history is often cyclical. Please see our January 2003 e-mail, where we predicted Bush’s numbers would take a tumble. Why? Because every president since Lyndon Johnson has had the same trouble in the third year of his first (or only) term. In general, presidential promises catch up to the governing realities sometime in the third year. Some chief executives pull out of the tailspin (Nixon, Reagan, Clinton) and win reelection, while others do not and never get a second term (LBJ, Ford, Carter, Bush Sr.). Democrats: Competition is fine, but divisiveness spells defeat With a full complement of 10 candidates, Democrats are now ready to take to the track for the nomination sprint. Everyone knows that money, organization, and ideology help produce the nominee. And all readers of the Crystal Ball know