Sabato’s Crystal Ball

As 2004 approaches, Democrats have plenty of factors to consider as they choose a nominee to take on President Bush. Surely, one of these is to avoid repeating the most embarrassing aspect of election night 2000. No, not the razor-thin loss in Florida, but Al Gore’s solid defeat in his own home state of Tennessee. Most observers would concede that the home folks know a politician best – and if they will not back a presidential candidate, why should the rest of us? Similarly, if a vice-presidential nominee cannot carry his or her home state, what good is the candidate to the party ticket? History’s Lessons Let’s first take a look at the lessons taught by the 26 presidential elections from 1900-2000. Table 1 summarizes the successes and the failures of the major-party nominees in carrying their home states in the general elections over the past century. As it turns out, Gore’s record is not all that unusual in American history. There is a clear difference between the America of 1900-1944, and the post-World War II United States. Simply put, candidates for president and vice president were far more likely to lose their home states in the earlier period-incredibly, nearly

Year President War Political Effect 1950 Truman Korea The unpopularity of this war, including Truman’s firing of Gen. MacArthur, contributed to Truman’s not seeking a second full elective term in 1952. 1952 Eisenhower Korea “I will go to Korea,” said Eisenhower during the ’52 campaign, and the natural public confidence in the former WWII Supreme Allied Commander helped to insure his landslide victory at the polls. 1953 Eisenhower Cold War Ike ended the hot part of the Korean War, and for his entire two-term presidency he was seen as having the stature to deal with the Soviet Union and the ‘Red’ Chinese. Vice President Nixon benefited from his own wide experience in foreign affairs to assume Ike’s mantle as the GOP nominee in 1960. 1960 JFK Cold War The ’60 race was closer in some ways than even the 2000 contest, and most of the key issues involved the Cold War: the JFK-alleged “missile gap,” the islands off China named Quemoy and Matsu, and Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev‘s aggressive posture toward the U.S.A. Democrats sometimes forget that JFK won a squeaker thanks to the first televised presidential debates by appearing to be an even tougher Cold Warrior than Nixon. (Doubters

Now that the war phase of the Iraq operation is winding down, it’s time for the Crystal Ball to return and assess the damage. Not damage on the ground, but the damage – or the boost – to various presidential candidates’ chances. First, the DEMOCRATS. Let’s remember how the last successful Democratic nominee handled a similar war. In 1991 Bill Clinton uttered this marvelously ambiguous, pre-“the meaning of is” statement about the congressional debate for authorization of the Persian Gulf War: “I guess I would have voted with the majority [for the war] if it was a close vote. But I agree with the argument that the minority made [against the war].” In other words, in true Clintonian fashion he managed glibly to avoid antagonizing either side, while giving both sides hope that he was secretly one of them. The Democrats for 2004 fall into three categories: PRO-WAR: John Edwards, Dick Gephardt, Joe Lieberman. ANTI-WAR: Howard Dean, Bob Graham, Dennis Kucinich, Carol Moseley Braun, Al Sharpton. CLINTONIAN: John Kerry. The party activists are heavily anti-war, and this fact has been propelling Dean in particular. Yet it is possible that by Iowa caucus time, Democrats will be focused on domestic issues

Julius Caesar was warned: “Beware the Ides of March.” Our modern presidents should be warned: “Beware the third year.” Why, that’s the presidential year George W. Bush has just begun! The third year is among the times that try presidents’ souls. Take a look at our new analysis of the Gallup Poll trends for presidents since Lyndon B. Johnson… Take a look at the Gallup Poll trends (above) for Presidents since Lyndon B. Johnson (with Gerald Ford, who didn’t have a full third year, excluded.) Johnson: Year 3, 1966, was LBJ’s turning point. Vietnam and domestic problems eroded his public backing from the 70s to the 40s by the third year. Johnson never made a comeback and was all but forced from office in 1968. Nixon: Year 3, 1971, was arguably the genesis of Nixon’s Waterloo. President Nixon fell below 50 percent for the first time and was losing to major Democrats in the 1972 horserace match-ups. The dawn of much of Watergate’s shenanigans can be found in the White House’s 1971 panic. Nixon’s landslide ’72 reelection merely obscured his approaching fate. Carter: Year 3, 1979, was the real beginning of Carter’s collapse, and he ended the first half of

After a post-election hiatus, we officially re-launch Sabatos Crystal Ball as the political planets align. The New Hampshire primary is exactly one year from today , and the 2005 presidential inauguration is just less than two years away. The Crystal Ball has been given a complete overhaul, making our critically acclaimed site even more visually appealing and interactive. Included are sections on the 2003 gubernatorial races, as well as the 2004 races for president, Senate, House, and governor. Each section is packed with loads of information and commentary, along with a historical perspective. The presidential section includes features such as an analysis of the nomination process, the “3 keys to the presidency,” and detailed candidate profiles. During the course of the next two years, we will be tracking the latest political developments and putting them into the broader context of our electoral tradition. So stay tuned, and keep an eye on the Crystal Ball! Now down to business… The 2004 Presidential Election in a Nutshell: Thumbs Up, Thumbs Down That’s all there really is to any election for president involving an incumbent. It’s a simple referendum: Do people want to keep the president, or get rid of him? If the