The Postwar History of Senate/Presidential Ticket-Splitting, Part One

As Democrats try to hold the Senate through defending red states, a look at the rise and fall of split Senate outcomes in presidential years

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- In the post-World War II era, there have been nearly 200 instances of states voting for one party for president and another for Senate in presidential election years. -- This type of ticket splitting has generally been to the benefit of Democrats, who have...

Notes on the State of the Senate

Analyzing Hogan’s entry in Maryland; deciphering action out west; the 2024 Democratic downside risk

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE --Last week, national Republicans got their best possible Senate recruit in deep blue Maryland, with former Gov. Larry Hogan. --Though Hogan will be hard pressed to actually win, as has been the case with some other recent “crossover” governors who’ve run in Senate races, his candidacy...

Big NY-3 Win Brings Democrats Ever Closer in the House

Breaking down the key special election; analyzing Toss-ups across the House map

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Rep.-elect Tom Suozzi (D, NY-3) begins the November general election as a favorite in our ratings following his impressive special election win. -- Republicans who hoped that immigration would be a superweapon for them in 2024 cannot really point to NY-3 as a validation...

The Race for the House, Part Two

Rating changes in 7 districts a mixed bag for each party; previewing the NY-3 special

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- We are making 7 House rating changes this week, with 4 benefiting Democrats and 3 benefiting Republicans. -- Republicans continue to be closer to the magic number of 218 in our ratings than Democrats, but there are enough Toss-up races that we broadly consider...

The Race for the House, Part One

Ticket-splitting dwindling but still vital; GOP got a little more of it in key 2016/2020 races

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Any analysis of House elections needs to start with the presidential race, as voting for the former has become so intertwined with the latter. -- That said, some voters do still split their tickets, and they may decide the House majority. -- Despite worries...

A Deeper Dig into the Granite

The Trump, Haley, and Biden coalitions in the New Hampshire primary

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE —With a lull in the primary calendar, we thought we’d take a closer look at last week’s New Hampshire primary. —Nikki Haley’s town-level victories were confined almost exclusively to places that Joe Biden carried in the 2020 general election. —Although Biden showed some weakness in a...

This Year’s Key Attorney General and Secretary of State Races

Battleground states North Carolina and Pennsylvania lead the list

Dear Readers: Senior Columnist Louis Jacobson covers state-level races for the Crystal Ball, and he is back this week with an updated look at this year’s elections for state attorneys general and secretaries of state. The Crystal Ball does not issue formal race ratings for these races as part of...

The Fields Above the Graves: Louisiana 2024 Redistricting

In vintage Louisiana fashion, Democrats gain a second Louisiana seat

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Earlier this week, Gov. Jeff Landry (R-LA) signed a new House map that creates a second Black-majority seat in the state. -- The new district, stretching from Baton Rouge to Shreveport, would have favored Joe Biden by 20 points in 2020 and is Safe...

Trump Clears the New Hampshire Hurdle

Haley can’t win the Republican nomination without Republicans; Biden avoids a Granite State slipup with write-in showing

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- While one can poke some holes in Donald Trump’s New Hampshire showing, he dispatched Nikki Haley in a state friendly to her coalition. -- Haley is dominating with moderates and independents, but, as obvious as it may sound, winning conservatives and Republicans is the...

A Roadmap for the New Hampshire GOP Primary

Where to look if the Granite State contest is too close to call

Dear Readers: As we look ahead to next week’s New Hampshire primary, we are pleased to feature a piece from our friend Dante Scala of the University of New Hampshire, who identifies the key places to watch in next week’s Republican contest. We also spoke with Dante about New Hampshire...

Big Iowa Win Confirms Trump’s Stranglehold on GOP

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The polls were basically correct in Iowa, as Donald Trump dominated the kickoff caucus. -- Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley finished second and third, respectively, in a scramble for second, but they were both so far behind Trump—about 30 points apiece—that it was hard...

Previewing the Iowa Caucus

A brief history of the Hawkeye State’s caucus, and some areas to watch

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Monday night’s Iowa Republican caucus kicks off the presidential nominating season. -- The caucus has a spotty history of voting for the eventual nominee, particularly on the Republican side, although Donald Trump is a big favorite both in Iowa and nationally. Ron DeSantis is...

Notes on the State of Politics… and Democracy

How House retirements compare historically, plus a rating change; how Americans think about democracy

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, featuring short updates on elections and politics. First, Managing Editor Kyle Kondik assesses the latest round of House retirements and how this year’s number of incumbents running compares to recent history. Then, Contributing Editor Carah Ong...

The Presidential Race at the Dawn of a New Year

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Despite bad polling and clear weaknesses for President Biden, we are sticking with our initial Electoral College ratings from the summer, which show him doing better than what polls today would indicate, even as there are enough Toss-up electoral votes to make the election...

Boebert’s District Flip

As she seeks reelection in a redder district, her current district stays Leans Republican in ratings

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Lightning rod U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert (R, CO-3) announced over the holidays that she would seek reelection in a redder, open seat on the other side of the state. -- The district she leaves behind, CO-3, remains rated as Leans Republican. -- A federal...