How did the Political Science Forecasters Do?
Dear Readers: We will be releasing a new episode of our Sabato’s Crystal Ball webinar series next Wednesday morning. It
Final Forecast: Results from Two Methods of Predicting the 2020 Presidential Election
Dear Readers: We will be back Thursday afternoon at 2 p.m. for our final Sabato’s Crystal Ball: America Votes webinar
Forecasting the 2020 U.S. Senate Elections Using Presidential Polling Data
Dear Readers: On Thursday’s 2 p.m. edition of Sabato’s Crystal Ball: America Votes, we’ll go in-depth on the race for
State Polls Give Biden Strong Lead in Electoral College as First Debate Looms
Dear Readers: Join us Thursday at 2 p.m. eastern for our latest episode of Sabato’s Crystal Ball: America Votes. We’ll
It’s the Pandemic, Stupid! A Simplified Model for Forecasting the 2020 Presidential Election
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Two factors that historically have been helpful in forecasting presidential elections — the power
Do Campaign Visits Pay Off? Evidence from the 2016 Presidential Election
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Donald Trump’s rally in Tulsa over the weekend was a reminder of how much
Comparing National Polls in 2016 and 2020
Editor’s Note: This is the first of two issues of the Crystal Ball this week. We’ll be back Thursday with
Recent Polling in the Swing States Favors Biden
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Recent polling in 13 swing states shows a consistent advantage for Joe Biden over
A Coronavirus Recession Could Doom Trump’s Reelection Chances
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The coronavirus public health crisis likely will lead to an economic downturn of unknown
Democrats’ Dilemma: Ideology, Electability, and the 2020 Presidential Nomination in Iowa and the Nation
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The Democratic electorate has been getting more liberal, although at the same time, Democrats
Don’t Believe the Washington CW: Trump is no Shoo-In for Reelection
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Some commentators are beginning to look at Donald Trump as a strong favorite for
Medicare for All a Vote Loser in 2018 U.S. House Elections
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — “Medicare for All” has been a major issue in the Democratic primary race. But
Which Party’s Voters are More Divided?
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — More Republicans identify as conservative than Democrats identify as liberal. — This has led
Did Russian Interference Affect the 2016 Election Results?
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s recent testimony was a reminder that Russia attempted to influence
The 2020 Congressional Elections: A Very Early Forecast
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — A forecasting model based on postwar electoral history along with the president’s approval rating