Assessing Trump’s Chances: Forecasting the 2020 Presidential Election
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The author’s “time for change” presidential forecasting model has a successful track record of
Moderation in the Pursuit of Reelection May Not Help
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — District partisanship was by far the strongest determinant of the results of House elections
Trump to the rescue? Presidential campaigning and the 2018 U.S. Senate elections
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — There is not much evidence that President Trump’s rallies held for GOP Senate candidates
The Very Stable House Generic Ballot
KEY POINT FROM THIS ARTICLE — On average, Democrats led the generic ballot by 7.1 points over the past year.
Explaining Support for Trump in the White Working Class: Race vs. Economics
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Data from the Pew Research Center show that six months into Donald Trump’s presidency,
Partisan Gerrymandering and the Outlook for the 2018 U.S. House Elections
There is a growing sense among political observers that the United States may be heading toward a wave election in
Forecast Model Suggests Democratic Gains Likely in 2018 Gubernatorial Contests
In addition to the entire U.S. House of Representatives and about one-third of the U.S. Senate, Americans will be choosing
Generic Ballot Model Gives Democrats Early Advantage in Battle for Control of House
Results of recent special elections have fueled speculation about whether Democrats have a realistic chance to regain control of the
Can Democrats Take Back the House in 2018?
Democrats would appear to face long odds in the 2018 U.S. House elections. They need to pick up 24 seats
Incumbency, not Republican Gerrymandering, is the Main Obstacle to a Democratic House Majority
With only a few days left in the 2016 election campaign, most national and swing state polls indicate that Hillary
Generic Ballot Forecasting Model: Democrats Could Take Back Senate but Republicans Likely to Hold House with Reduced Majority
Since the conclusion of the Republican and Democratic national conventions last month, pundits, political reporters, and ordinary Americans have, for
Forecasting the 2016 Presidential Election: Will Time for Change Mean Time for Trump?
Dear readers: We’re pleased this week to continue our series on the political science forecasts of the presidential election with
State Polls Show Strong Consistency between 2012 and 2016
Contrary to claims made by some commentators recently, there is little evidence, except for one state, that there are big
Donald Trump, Partisan Polarization, and the 2016 Presidential Election
Recent presidential elections in the United States have been characterized by sharp divisions between Democrats and Republicans on a wide
Model Points to Close California Result Between Clinton and Sanders
On June 7, five states — California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota — will hold primary elections.